Infrared satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Sagar on May 18, 2018. Credit:

Tropical Cyclone Sagar is taking a path that few storms have taken before, as the compact storm draws on energy from the Gulf of Aden. Forecasts call for Tropical Sagar to make landfall between Somalia and Djibouti on Friday night, eastern time.

Humanitarian concerns: Somalia is still in the midst of unrest, and U.S. military forces operate there and in neighboring Djibouti, where most of America's African counterterrorism operations are based. This storm threatens to dump a year's worth of rain in just one or two days, causing flooding that may displace thousands of people, depending on the exact landfall location.

This is not normal: Only a handful of tropical cyclones (a catchall term for tropical storms and hurricanes) have taken this path and survived by threading the needle between the Arabian Desert and the desert of eastern Africa, each of which could stifle such a storm.

Be smart: Cyclone Sagar has survived by staying over water and remaining a small storm with a tight core of powerful thunderstorms. When it makes landfall, it's forecast to be close to hurricane intensity, though some computer models show it may grow even stronger.

Go deeper

Democrats' mail voting pivot

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Democrats spent the early months of the coronavirus pandemic urging their base to vote absentee. But as threats of U.S. Postal Service delays, Team Trump litigation and higher ballot rejection rates become clearer, many are pivoting to promote more in-person voting as well.

Why it matters: Democrats are exponentially more likely to vote by mail than Republicans this year — and if enough mail-in ballots are lost, rejected on a technicality or undercounted, it could change the outcome of the presidential election or other key races.

New interactive tool shows Biden's mail voting danger

Data: SurveyMonkey; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Voters who disapprove of President Trump most strongly are by far the most likely to vote by mail in the presidential election, according to an Axios analysis of exclusive data from SurveyMonkey and Tableau.

Why it matters: The new data shows just how strongly the mail-in vote is likely to favor Joe Biden — with potentially enormous implications in the swing states due to the greater risk of rejection with mail ballots.

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Reopening the ACA debate is politically risky for GOP

Data: Kaiser Family Foundation, The Cook Political Report; Notes: Those losing insurance includes 2020 ACA marketplace enrollment and 2019 Medicaid expansion enrollment among newly-eligible enrollees. Close races are those defined as "Toss up" or "Lean R/D"; Table: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The sudden uncertainty surrounding the future of the Affordable Care Act could be an enormous political liability for Republicans in key states come November.

Between the lines: Millions of people in crucial presidential and Senate battlegrounds would lose their health care coverage if the Supreme Court strikes down the law, as the Trump administration is urging it to.

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