Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The hottest 2020 trend is moving up your projections of the global oil demand peak.

Driving the news: Oil major Total, in a new analysis, sees demand growth ending in a decade and then declining in their "momentum" scenario.

  • That's a world with some action on climate change, but not nearly enough to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement.
  • In their "rupture" scenario — aggressive policies coupled with tech breakthroughs — oil demand peaks "by 2030" and then falls to less than half of today's levels by 2050.

The big picture: Multiple analysts are accelerating their projections of when oil demand will stop growing, and some are more aggressive than Total.

  • A recent BP analysis sees that plateau early this decade — or even demand never reaching its pre-pandemic levels if the world acts aggressively on carbon.
  • A DNV GL report this month also predicts peak already happened.

Why it matters: The peak's timing and the slope of its decline will affect emissions, corporate strategies and the finances of oil-producing nations.

Yes, but: The idea that peak demand is imminent isn't mainstream, even as the pandemic shakes up long-term analyses.

What we're watching: Keep an eye on what the International Energy Agency says in its long-term outlook next month.

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
Jan 4, 2021 - Energy & Environment

Oil executives have mixed expectations for 2021

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Chart: Axios Visuals

2021 can't be worse for oil companies than 2020, but wow is that a low bar, and a new survey shows that executives see a mixed picture ahead.

Driving the news: U.S. prices hit their highest levels since February early today before receding.

Kaine, Collins' censure resolution seeks to bar Trump from holding office again

Sen. Tim Kaine (center) and Sen. Susan Collins (right). Photo: Andrew Harnik/Pool via Getty Images

Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) are forging ahead with a draft proposal to censure former President Trump, and are considering introducing the resolution on the Senate floor next week.

Why it matters: Senators are looking for a way to condemn Trump on the record as it becomes increasingly unlikely Democrats will obtain the 17 Republican votes needed to gain a conviction, Axios Alayna Treene writes. "I think it’s important for the Senate's leadership to understand that there are alternatives," Kaine told CNN on Wednesday.

Stark reminder for America's corporate leaders

Rosalind "Roz" Brewer is about to become only the second Black woman to permanently lead a Fortune 500 company. She starts as Walgreens CEO on March 15.

Why it matters: It's a stark reminder of how far corporate America's top decision-makers have to go during an unprecedented push by politicians, employees and even a stock exchange to diversify their top ranks.