Illustration: Axios Visuals

With less than a week until Election Day, top operators in both parties tell me the events of the past week have helped lock in the split decision they have long seen coming: The House flips to Dems (probably decisively), and Republicans hold the Senate (and perhaps gain two seats).

What they're saying: Democrats who had grown skittish about taking the House say they're resting easier. "The panic has abated," said a well-known Democrat on a secret mission in one of the key states.

Some top Republicans tell me they worry that their candidates will pay a price following the anti-Semitic murders in Pittsburgh and the arrest of a rabid Trump supporter for the mail bombs.

  • "World looks crazy, and we are in charge of it," said an official closely involved in the House fight.
  • "Hard to imagine a worse week at a worse time. What it means is hard to know exactly, but certainly not helping us win close races."
  • And why might the news have a split effect for Senate and House? "I think red state voters see the president leading the nation in a crisis, where the suburban voters blame him for the tone," a veteran GOP adviser said.

The one thing worrying Democrats ... A longtime Democratic operative said this is what to watch for on Tuesday:

  • "Super low turnout: Democrats win. Our core voters are going to vote. They hate Trump. They are dying to vote. Look at the Upshot/Siena polls. In every race where they do a turnout model, when they do voters 'certain to vote,' our candidates win. By a lot."
  • "Super high turnout: Democrats win. In addition to owning the most intense voters, we also own the least intense voters. Largely young people."
  • "But medium turnout: That scares me. The GOP owns the voters who aren’t quite as intense as our voters, but who are show-up-often voters."

Be smart ... One reason the cake may already be baked: As many as 40% of votes have been cast in early voting.

  • Disclaimer: This represents the consensus view of the top Democrats and Republicans most involved in the 2018 campaigns — all of whom were involved in 2016. This is the age of disruption: New shocks await, I guarantee.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

4 mins ago - Health

Coronavirus cases are falling, but don't get too comfortable

Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Danielle Alberti, Sara Wise/Axios

America's coronavirus outbreak is slowing down after a summer of explosive growth.

By the numbers: The U.S. is averaging roughly 52,000 new cases per day — still a lot of cases, but about 10.5% fewer than it was averaging last week.

Updated 2 hours ago - Health

World coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

New Zealand confirmed Thursday there are now 13 local cases linked to the four who tested positive for COVID-19, ending 102 days with no community spread. Auckland locked down Wednesday for 72 hours and the rest of NZ is under lesser restrictions.

By the numbers: Over 749,400 people have died of the novel coronavirus globally and over 20.6 million have tested positive, per Johns Hopkins. More than 12.8 million have recovered from the virus.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 20,624,316 — Total deaths: 749,421— Total recoveries: 12,831,800Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 5,197,147 — Total deaths: 166,027 — Total recoveries: 1,714,960 — Total tests: 63,252,257Map.
  3. Politics: Pelosi says Mnuchin told her White House is "not budging" on stimulus position.
  4. Business: U.S. already feeling effects of ending unemployment benefits.
  5. Public health: U.S. records deadliest coronavirus day of the summer — America's two-sided COVID-19 response
  6. Education: New Jersey governor allows schools to reopenGallup: America's confidence in public school system jumps to highest level since 2004.