Jan 2, 2018

The top risks to global order in 2018

Spectators watch the first sunrise of the new year at the Lincoln Memorial yesterday. Photo: J. David Ake / AP

First look at a dire warning from one of the top analysts of global trends — Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, and Eurasia Group Chairman Cliff Kupchan are out this morning with their "Top Risks" report for 2018:

The big picture: "2018 doesn't feel good. Yes, markets are soaring and the economy isn't bad, but citizens are divided. Governments aren't doing much governing. And the global order is unraveling."

Why it matters: "In the 20 years since we started Eurasia Group, ... if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis ... it feels like 2018. Sorry ... Last year, we wrote that the world was entering a period of geopolitical recession. ... The world is now closer to geopolitical depression than to a reversion to past stability."

Among the risks that are worrying Bremmer and his colleagues:

  • China loves a vacuum: "China is setting international standards [on trade and investment, tech, values, and security] with less resistance than ever before."
  • Accidents: "It's impossible to ignore the risk of a major crisis today, because there are too many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious international conflict."
  • Global tech cold war: "Achieving dominance in emerging technologies is the world's most important battle for economic power."
  • Erosion of institutions: "Conflict will become more frequent, decision-making degraded, and internal chaos common."
  • "[T]his is a White House that's headed toward massive distraction from a Mueller investigation."

And maybe the most sobering of all: "The decline of U.S. influence in the world will accelerate in 2018."

Go deeper

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 5,453,784 — Total deaths: 345,886 — Total recoveries — 2,191,310Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 1,651,254 — Total deaths: 97,850 — Total recoveries: 366,736 — Total tested: 14,163,915Map.
  3. World: Top Boris Johnson aide defends himself after allegations he broke U.K. lockdown — WHO suspends trial of hydroxychloroquine over safety concerns.
  4. 2020: Trump threatens to move Republican convention from North Carolina — Joe Biden makes first public appearance in two months.
  5. Public health: Officials are urging Americans to wear masks over Memorial Day.
  6. Economy: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett says it's possible the unemployment rate could still be in double digits by November's election — Charities refocus their efforts to fill gaps left by government.
  7. What should I do? Hydroxychloroquine questions answeredTraveling, asthma, dishes, disinfectants and being contagiousMasks, lending books and self-isolatingExercise, laundry, what counts as soap — Pets, moving and personal healthAnswers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingHow to minimize your risk.
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it, the right mask to wear.

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Updated 22 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Joe Biden makes first public appearance in over two months

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Former Vice President Joe Biden made his first in-person appearance in over two months on Monday to honor Memorial Day by laying a wreath at a Delaware veterans park, AP reports.

Why it matters: Biden, the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, has taken the unprecedented step of campaigning from his home during the coronavirus pandemic, ever since canceling a rally in Cleveland on March 10.

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The World Health Organization is temporarily pausing tests of the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine as a coronavirus treatment in order to review safety concerns, the agency's director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu said Monday.

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