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Lazaro Gamio / Axios

We still don't know — no one knows — how the Senate's health care process is likely to end. But it's now well under way. And as the lopsided defeat of the Senate repeal-and-replace plan last night showed, there could be plenty of surprises ahead.

Here's where things stand as we barrel toward some kind of conclusion tomorrow night.

  • The Senate last night voted down a modified version of Republicans' larger repeal-and-replace bill, the Better Care Reconciliation Act. But BCRA is not necessarily dead. Last night's version included provisions that haven't been scored or reviewed by the parliamentarian.
  • Another, simpler version — like the most recent one scored by the Congressional Budget Office — could still come up later in the process, a senior GOP aide told us.
  • Technically, last night's vote was procedural, but it's extremely reasonable to take that vote as a proxy for the policy itself.
  • The next vote, scheduled for early this afternoon, will be on the updated version of the 2015 repeal-only bill. That, too, is expected to fail.
  • All signs point to a vote-a-rama Thursday night, perhaps into Friday morning.

The hot new thing: "Skinny repeal." If neither BCRA nor straight repeal looks to be gaining any traction, the next option in the rotation appears to be a bill that would repeal small parts of the ACA — like the individual mandate and a tax or two.

  • The goal here wouldn't necessarily be to settle for that outcome, but to pass something that would trigger a conference committee with the House. Normally designed as a way to hammer out specific differences in House and Senate bills, a conference here would function more like another opportunity to write another bill — albeit under many of the same restrictions.
  • House Republicans aren't sure yet how they feel about this option. They're waiting to see what — if anything — the Senate actually sends them. But anything that keeps the process alive would be a good thing, a senior House GOP aide told Axios' Caitlin Owens.

Go deeper

New wave of strikes will test worker power

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Thousands of John Deere workers hit the picket line this week after the union smacked down a new worker contract from the farm and equipment maker.

Why it matters: There’s a wave of worker angst spreading across the country. They wield new power that’s come with a historic worker shortage.

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
2 hours ago - Technology

The smart city comes of age

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Better sensors, more intelligent AI, and the coming wave of 5G wireless could finally fulfill the promise of the smart city.

Why it matters: How we organize, run and power our cities will be increasingly important in the years ahead, as urbanization expands and the damaging effects of climate change compound.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
10 hours ago - Energy & Environment

Key clean power provision likely won't survive in Dems' spending bill

A construction worker walks along a dirt road at the Avangrid Renewables La Joya wind farm in Encino, New Mexico, on Aug. 5, 2020. Photo: Cate Dingley/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A pillar of Democrats' plans to speed deployment of zero-carbon electricity is likely to be cut from major spending and tax legislation they are struggling to move on a party-line vote, per multiple reports and a Capitol Hill aide.

Driving the news: The New York Times, citing anonymous congressional aides and lobbyists, reports that West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D) has told the White House he "strongly opposes" the Clean Electricity Performance Program.

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