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Cowen has a note this morning saying the path ahead for tax legislation has grown more muddled in the past two weeks as Republicans tie themselves in knots over how to proceed with Obamacare repeal/replace/repair. Analyst Chris Krueger lays out the five now likely scenarios on taxes:

  1. Tax overhaul following GOP's "Better Way" plan including border adjustment (note: border-tax opponents have been winning lately)
  2. Rehash of the George W. Bush tax cuts with a 10-year sunset
  3. Combination of Obamacare and taxes in one giant bill
  4. Nothing
  5. A "Middle of Road" tax and infrastructure bill

The easiest route is #2 to get a tax-cut win and deal with the cost later. Krueger calls it the "In Emergency, Break Glass Option."

The more the legislative process breaks down on Capitol Hill, the more likely we suspect this option heads to the very top of the probability list ... Everyone is waiting to get ObamaCare off the mat and Trump to get in the ring.

Go deeper

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
1 hour ago - Economy & Business

Warren Buffett resigns from Gates Foundation board

Buffett and Bill Gates in 2015. Photo: Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation — the second-largest philanthropy in the world — is now governed by just two trustees, after Warren Buffett announced on Wednesday that he had resigned his position there.

Why it matters: The two remaining trustees, Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates, are going through a divorce.

Updated 2 hours ago - World

U.K. denies Russia fired warning shots at destroyer in Black Sea

The HMS Defender in the port of Odessa on Ukraine's Black Sea coast on June 18. Photo: Konstantin Sazonchik\TASS via Getty Images

Russia's defense ministry claimed Wednesday that a Russian warship and fighter jet fired "warning" shots at the British Royal Navy’s HMS Defender destroyer for encroaching on waters near Crimea in the Black Sea.

The latest: The U.K.'s ministry of defense disputed that any warning shots were fired, saying in a statement, "We believe the Russians were undertaking a gunnery exercise in the Black Sea and provided the maritime community with prior-warning of their activity."

Mike Allen, author of AM
Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

First look: WaPo Trump book's secret title revealed

Cover: Penguin Press

The Washington Post's Carol Leonnig and Philip Rucker will be out July 20 with "I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trump’s Catastrophic Final Year," Penguin Press announced.

Breaking: Axios has learned that The Wall Street Journal's Michael Bender is moving "Frankly, We Did Win the Election" up to July 20, matching Leonnig-Rucker, from his earlier pub date of Aug. 10.

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