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Cowen has a note this morning saying the path ahead for tax legislation has grown more muddled in the past two weeks as Republicans tie themselves in knots over how to proceed with Obamacare repeal/replace/repair. Analyst Chris Krueger lays out the five now likely scenarios on taxes:

  1. Tax overhaul following GOP's "Better Way" plan including border adjustment (note: border-tax opponents have been winning lately)
  2. Rehash of the George W. Bush tax cuts with a 10-year sunset
  3. Combination of Obamacare and taxes in one giant bill
  4. Nothing
  5. A "Middle of Road" tax and infrastructure bill

The easiest route is #2 to get a tax-cut win and deal with the cost later. Krueger calls it the "In Emergency, Break Glass Option."

The more the legislative process breaks down on Capitol Hill, the more likely we suspect this option heads to the very top of the probability list ... Everyone is waiting to get ObamaCare off the mat and Trump to get in the ring.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
17 mins ago - Economy & Business

Janet Yellen said all the right things to reassure the markets

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Treasury Secretary nominee and former Fed chair Janet Yellen's confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday showed markets just what they can expect from the administration of President-elect Joe Biden: more of what they got under President Trump — at least for now.

What it means: Investors and big companies reaped the benefits of ultralow U.S. interest rates and low taxes for most of Trump's term as well as significant increases in government spending, even before the coronavirus pandemic.

Updated 51 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Biden to sign 15 executive actions on Day One

President-elect Joe Biden. Photo: SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images

President-elect Joe Biden is expected to sign 15 executive actions upon taking office Wednesday, immediately reversing key Trump administration policies.

Why it matters: The 15 actions — aimed at issues like climate change and immigration — mark more drastic immediate steps compared with the two day-one actions from Biden's four predecessors combined, according to incoming White House press secretary Jen Psaki.

Mike Allen, author of AM
51 mins ago - Politics & Policy

The Swamp wins

President Trump on Jan. 28, 2017, with two aides he later pardoned — national security adviser Michael Flynn and strategist Steve Bannon. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

It was 12:50 a.m. on Inauguration Day when President Trump announced 143 pardons and commutations — including a pardon for Steve Bannon. 17 minutes later, the White House released an executive order that said it all about his failure to "drain the Swamp," as he'd promised in the '16 campaign.

Driving the news: Trump revoked an executive order, signed eight days after he took office, that limits his appointees' lobbying for five years after leaving the administration.

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