Mahdi Sajed, a member of the supreme leader's office moonlighting team, searches the sky with binoculars for the new moon that signals the start of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. (Ebrahim Noroozi / AP)

In just the past few weeks:

Why it matters: Iran has long been wary of the U.S. presence in the region, since it believes the U.S. is out to undermine its regime and ability to influence the region. These latest steps are Iran signaling to the U.S. that the time has come for U.S. influence in the region to wane, said Nick Heras, who has conducted research at the National Defense University for U.S. Cyber Command. Farzan Sabet, a Stanford University expert on U.S.-Iran relations who has done research on U.S.-Iran relations, put it simply — Iran "wants the Americans to leave."

The latest response: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told reporters Tuesday "it is our intention to push back on Iran's expansionist efforts to destabilize the region."

Iran's actions could be driven by Iranian fears that the Trump administration is more adversarial in the region than Obama:

  • Iran's Defense Minister, Hossein Dehgan, said the impetus for the missile production line came from the $110 billion Saudi-U.S. weapons deals.
  • Trump has expressed concerns about Iran's increasing influence in conflicts in the region and said last week he is considering dropping the 2015 Iran nuclear deal this fall.
  • His administration is simultaneously reviewing U.S. policy towards Iran, an undertaking which has given "hints that it could seek a more confrontational stance toward Iran or even regime-change," Sebat said. Heras, who is also a fellow in the Middle East Security Program at CNAS, confirmed that "there is a deep current level of concern at the highest level of Iranian government" that Trump "might green-light a strategy of overthrow" in Tehran.
  • The U.S. has moved to sanction Iran further.
  • Note: The U.S. position is muddled after the senior director for Middle East policy in the National Security Council was ousted last Thursday. He had reportedly held a hard line against Iran, compared to the less allegedly hawkish stance of both the secretaries of Defense and State.

Breaking down Iran's response:

  1. The Iran-Iraq deal: Iran is pursuing a friendly government across the border. Inherently at play here is the U.S. presence in the region — both Iran-backed and U.S.-backed forces have been operating in Iraq.
  2. The dangerous maneuver from Iran in the Persian Gulf continues a trend of encounters with the U.S. (Take incidents from July 2016, August 2016, June 2017, as just some examples of similar past behavior.)
  3. The rocket carrying a satellite: "Iran wants to remind its opponents that even though it does not have the expensive military toys that the United States gives Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran has the capability to defend itself, and to do so in a highly devastating manner," Heras said. This move could alarm the U.S. that Iran is on the way to developing long range missiles that could hit other countries, such as Israel.
  4. Iran's new missile production line: Som in Iran "view Iranian nuclear weapons as a powerful option to prevent regime change activities by the Islamic Republic's enemies," Heras said. This production line, it's worth noting, is part of a pre-existing cooperation between Iran and Iraq, he said.
  5. Omitting the U.S. role in Mosul: Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have been crediting themselves for liberating Mosul and downplaying the role of U.S.-backed forces to lessen U.S. influence among those who opposed the ISIS occupation.

Go deeper

Updated 8 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9:45 p.m. ET: 19,282,972 — Total deaths: 718,851 — Total recoveries — 11,671,491Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9:45 p.m. ET: 4,937,441 — Total deaths: 161,248 — Total recoveries: 1,623,870 — Total tests: 60,415,558Map.
  3. Politics: Trump says he's prepared to sign executive orders on coronavirus aid.
  4. Education: Cuomo says all New York schools can reopen for in-person learning.
  5. Public health: Surgeon general urges flu shots to prevent "double whammy" with coronavirus — Massachusetts pauses reopening after uptick in coronavirus cases.
  6. World: Africa records over 1 million coronavirus cases — Gates Foundation puts $150 million behind coronavirus vaccine production.

Warren and Clinton to speak on same night of Democratic convention

(Photos: Abdulhamid Hosbas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Hillary Clinton both are slated to speak on the Wednesday of the Democratic convention — Aug. 19 — four sources familiar with the planning told Axios.

Why it matters: That's the same night Joe Biden's running mate (to be revealed next week) will address the nation. Clinton and Warren represent two of the most influential wise-women of Democratic politics with the potential to turn out millions of establishment and progressive voters in November.

Trump considering order on pre-existing condition protections, which already exist

Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump announced on Friday he will pursue an executive order requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions, something that is already law.

Why it matters: The Affordable Care Act already requires insurers to cover pre-existing conditions. The Trump administration is currently arguing in a case before the Supreme Court to strike down that very law — including its pre-existing condition protections.