AP file photo

Chris Jacobs, a well-known conservative health care analyst and former adviser to Bobby Jindal, writes in The Federalist that he's found out how bad the estimates were for the original House Republican Obamacare replacement draft. Citing sources close to the effort, he says the Congressional Budget Office warned congressional staffers that the original version could have caused 10-20 million people to lose employer health coverage. And the uninsured could have increased by as much as 15 million, he says — "nearly as much as repealing the law outright."

Why it matters: Republicans have moved on from that draft, and the bill that could be introduced as soon as today is likely to have substantial changes. But that's why it will be critical for House Republicans to have new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office before the health care committees vote on anything, Jacobs writes — and it's not clear that that will happen.

The bottom line: "Members who vote for a bill without knowing its full fiscal effects, yet will be held politically responsible for said effects, do so entirely at their own risk."

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In her first week on the job, Amy Coney Barrett may be deciding which votes to count in the presidential election. By her third week, she’ll be deciding the fate of the Affordable Care Act.

Where it stands: The Senate votes on Barrett’s nomination tomorrow. If she’s confirmed, Chief Justice John Roberts is expected to swear her in at the Supreme Court within hours, an administration official tells Axios.

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Why it matters: If Texas — which has 38 electoral votes and is steadily getting more blue, but hasn't backed a Democrat for president since 1976 — flipped to the Biden column, it would be game over. But the RealClearPolitics polling average stubbornly hovers at +2.6 for Trump — and Team Biden appears more focused on closer targets.

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The big picture: This "mecca for all things MAGA," as one adviser described it, is one of three hubs where they say Trumpworld will watch returns. The others are the war room at campaign HQ in Rosslyn, Virginia, and the White House residence, where Trump and the first lady will gather close family and advisers before heading to the hotel later that night, the sources said.