With health care on the Senate's plate, the GOP is looking to Maine — and its success with an "invisible" high-risk pool before the Affordable Care Act — as a model for how to cover people with health problems without raising costs for everyone else, per Kaiser Health News.

Maine's plan: The program placed people with pre-existing conditions into a high-risk pool seamlessly, without them even knowing it. They got the same coverage as everyone else in their health plan, but their medical bills were paid differently — through their premiums and a surcharge on all Maine policyholders.

Why it might not work nationally: An invisible high-risk pool needs a lot of money to be successful, and, as it stands, the House-passed bill doesn't allocate that. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine has said it would need $15 billion in the first year alone, but the House bill only includes $3 billion for high-risk pools.

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Democrats' mail voting pivot

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Democrats spent the early months of the coronavirus pandemic urging their base to vote absentee. But as threats of U.S. Postal Service delays, Team Trump litigation and higher ballot rejection rates become clearer, many are pivoting to promote more in-person voting as well.

Why it matters: Democrats are exponentially more likely to vote by mail than Republicans this year — and if enough mail-in ballots are lost, rejected on a technicality or undercounted, it could change the outcome of the presidential election or other key races.

New interactive tool shows Biden's mail voting danger

Data: SurveyMonkey; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Voters who disapprove of President Trump most strongly are by far the most likely to vote by mail in the presidential election, according to an Axios analysis of exclusive data from SurveyMonkey and Tableau.

Why it matters: The new data shows just how strongly the mail-in vote is likely to favor Joe Biden — with potentially enormous implications in the swing states due to the greater risk of rejection with mail ballots.

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
50 mins ago - Health

Reopening the ACA debate is politically risky for GOP

Data: Kaiser Family Foundation, The Cook Political Report; Notes: Those losing insurance includes 2020 ACA marketplace enrollment and 2019 Medicaid expansion enrollment among newly-eligible enrollees. Close races are those defined as "Toss up" or "Lean R/D"; Table: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The sudden uncertainty surrounding the future of the Affordable Care Act could be an enormous political liability for Republicans in key states come November.

Between the lines: Millions of people in crucial presidential and Senate battlegrounds would lose their health care coverage if the Supreme Court strikes down the law, as the Trump administration is urging it to.

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