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The good news/bad news for Senate Republicans

Jacquelyn Martin / AP

The good news:

  • $321 billion in net deficit reduction ($202 billion more than the House).
  • Average premiums would go down starting in 2020.
  • The markets would be stable through 2020, and stable after that "in most areas of the country."

The bad news:

  • 22 million fewer people would have health coverage.
  • The increase in the uninsured would be "disproportionately larger among older people with lower income."
  • $772 billion in Medicaid cuts.
  • States would have to decide whether to put more money into Medicaid, cut doctors' payments, eliminate optional services, restrict eligibility, or all of the above.
  • Average premiums would go up before 2020.
  • People would pay "substantial increases" for services no longer considered essential benefits.
  • "Coverage for maternity care, mental health care, rehabilitative and habilitative treatment, and certain very expensive drugs could be at risk."
  • Annual and lifetime limits could return for those services, too.
  • Deductibles would be higher. (Closer to $6,000 for a benchmark plan, vs. $3,600 under the Affordable Care Act.)
  • Some "sparsely populated areas" would have no insurers.

Key quote: "As a result, despite being eligible for premium tax credits, few low-income people would purchase any plan, CBO and JCT estimate." - CBO score