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Andrew Harnik / AP

House Speaker Paul Ryan's not wrong when he says there are "encouraging" things for Republicans in the Congressional Budget Office Trumpcare estimates. But there's even more bad news buried within the report, too. Here are a few of the smartest expert takes out this morning.

  • Avik Roy, a conservative health care analyst who has been critical of the bill, agrees that some of the estimates are better than expected, noting in Forbes that CBO thinks the bill "would result in a relatively stable nongroup market." He also highlights its estimate of $337 billion in net deficit reduction.
  • The liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, however, warns that "millions will pay substantially higher premiums due to large cuts in tax credits that outweigh the slight decrease in average premiums."
  • Stanford University's Lanhee Chen, a member of the Axios board of experts, writes for CNN that the report is good news for conservatives because of the deficit reduction and long-term decrease in premiums — but warns that Republicans may have to change the bill to win moderates by boosting the coverage.
  • At the Health Affairs blog, Timothy Jost, a legal expert and Obamacare supporter, writes that one of the most alarming estimates is that "millions — CBO does not say how many — of low-income, older people would lose coverage ... because they could no longer afford it after the age rating ratio and premium tax credits changed."

Go deeper

58 mins ago - World

Iran agrees to resume Vienna nuclear talks in November

Ali Bagheri (R) with Enrique Mora in Tehran on Oct. 14. Photo: Iranian Foreign Ministry handout via Getty

Iran's new chief nuclear negotiator said following a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday that Iran would resume negotiations in Vienna before the end of November, with the exact date to be set next week.

Why it matters: The Vienna talks have been frozen since Iran's new hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, was elected in June. This is the most direct commitment from Raisi's government to return to the negotiating table.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
6 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Democrats' billionaires tax explained

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

There is now legislative language behind the push to tax American billionaires on unrealized capital gains, as Sen. Ron Wyden last night released his 107-page plan.

Why it matters: This would be a sea change in U.S. tax policy, which has only applied to realized gains (otherwise known as income).

COP26 head warns Glasgow summit will be "harder than Paris"

Alok Sharma, U.K. COP26 president, in Milan on Sept. 30, 2021. Photo: Stefano Guidi/Getty Images

U.K. COP26 President Alok Sharma told reporters Tuesday that the upcoming talks in Glasgow, widely viewed as the last chance to avoid some of the worst consequences of global warming, will be extremely difficult.

Driving the news: Sharma sought to temper expectations and note that the agenda features some of the toughest items that negotiators have punted on at previous summits.