Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Nashville news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Nashville newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Columbus news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Columbus newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Dallas news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Dallas newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Ryan, Trump and McConnell at the White House. Photo: Evan Vucci / AP

Here's how top sources in the White House and on Capitol Hill expect this week's major legislative items to play out:

1. Health care: Over the past 48 hours, I've spoken to more than half a dozen senior administration officials and Republican leadership sources about health care. Not one of them said they were optimistic about the chances of passing the GOP's last-ditch Graham-Cassidy bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.

It's telling — and not in a good way — that President Trump is pinning a good deal of his hopes on his last-ditch attempt to flip Rand Paul, who is perennially the toughest vote in the conference, from a hard no to a reluctant yes.

The political chessboard, per sources close to the process:

  • John McCain has already said he's voting against it, and nobody thinks there's a snowball's chance in hell of persuading him to change his mind. They can only lose one more vote.
  • Susan Collins signaled she's almost certainly voting against the bill. The administration plans to release new figures on Monday they say will show that Collins' state of Maine gets significantly more resources under the GOP health care bill, but nobody I've spoken to believes that argument will work on her. The way one source put it: Collins' political brand is built on being bipartisan and her incentives are to oppose any bill that's Republican-only.
  • Lisa Murkowski leans heavily towards no, and McCain has given her political cover to vote against the bill. (Oh, and bonus! Ted Cruz said today they don't have his vote yet. He wants the bill to tackle more regulations. Oh, and Mike Lee hasn't committed to the bill, either.)
  • The opposition: Progressives are well organized against the key Republican senators leading up to the health care vote, which is expected to happen as early as Wednesday. Progressive groups are running high-pressured ads, and have planned protests and rallies this week in Alaska, Ohio, West Virginia, Colorado, Florida, and Nevada.
  • X factor: Republican leaders are hoping that the realization sinks in among their reluctant colleagues that repeal will either happen this week or never. If Republicans don't repeal-and-replace the Affordable Care Act this week, forget it. The road ahead is clear: working with Democrats to strengthen President Obama's signature domestic achievement.

2. Tax reform: Republican leaders were frustrated when Axios and the Washington Post reported leaked details of the "Big Six" tax plan that's been hashed out for months in immense secrecy among Republican leaders and administration officials Gary Cohn and Steven Mnuchin. These leaks, which began circulating around Capitol Hill on Friday night, put GOP leaders under pressure from their members, who are anxious for the details.

Overall, however, leaders and administration officials feel far more optimistic about tax reform than they have about health care:

  • Tax reform is a natural issue for a lot of Republicans. When most Republican lawmakers wake up in the morning they don't think about refashioning the health care system; but most do think about cutting taxes.
  • They've had a pretty good run up to tax reform; they're going to have vigorous hearings, a lot of negotiation. The pay off — reduced tax rates, goosing the GDP, money in voters' pockets — is more tangible than it ever was with health care.
  • Senior officials on Capitol Hill and inside the administration told me this weekend that they fully expect Trump to embrace the Big Six tax plan. He won't be selling the framework as a finished product; it's the starting point of a process that will be long and have lots of give and take as it wends its way through the House and Senate.
  • The opposition: Following Axios' scoop about Republicans' planned cut to the top income tax rate, Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer said: "Democrats have strongly and firmly stood for the position that not one penny of tax cuts should go to the top 1%."

Go deeper

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
2 hours ago - Economy & Business

FTX CEO predicts more U.S. crypto flight

Photo: "Axios on HBO"

FTX doesn't look much like a company valued at $25 billion. Its new headquarters, located in a sleepy part of The Bahamas, is so nondescript as to not even have a sign. But it does expect to soon have neighbors.

Driving the news: Founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried tells "Axios on HBO" to expect "more and more crypto flight from the states" if the U.S. doesn't soon create a regulatory regime for cryptocurrencies.

Developed countries reveal $100 billion climate finance plan ahead of COP26

Alok Sharma, head of the UN Climate Summit in Glasgow, speaks in Paris on Oct. 12. ( Li Yang/China News Service via Getty Images)

After 12 years of fits and starts, industrialized nations on Monday put forward a detailed plan to provide at least $100 billion annually in climate aid to developing countries starting by 2023.

Why it matters: The plan, presented by representatives of Canada and Germany, is aimed at defusing one of the biggest sources of tension at COP26, which is the failure of industrialized nations to follow through on their financial commitments.

2 hours ago - Health

Moderna says COVID vaccine shows strong immune response in kids

Photo: Martin Galindo/Long Visual Press/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Moderna on Monday released trial results for its coronavirus vaccine for children aged 6 to 11, saying it provides a "robust" immune response after two doses.

Why it matters: Moderna said it will officially submit the results to the Food and Drug Administration for authorization in "the near term," meaning we could soon see two coronavirus vaccines available to protect approximately 28 million more kids in the U.S.