The death of the click - Axios
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The death of the click

Illustration Lazaro Gamio / Axios

For the past 10 years, we've operated on the premise that the most important digital metric is the click that refers a person to a website. That click usually comes from a social distribution channel, like Facebook or Twitter, or a search engine, like Google or Bing. But according to industry experts, the click referral is becoming an idea of the past, soon to be replaced by content exposure.

Why it matters: Most publishers have designed their websites to measure user interaction through clicks, not scroll rates or time spent on stories. As the industry moves away from click-through rates (CTR's) as the most meaningful marketing metric, those publishers will have a difficult time justifying the effectiveness of their platforms for marketers.

How did we get here? When AT&T created the first banner ad in 1994, the ad had about a 44% CTR, according to a report by AdRoll. That's around 40x higher than the average banner CTR today. Two factors have led to the decline in clicking:

  1. New web formats, used by apps like Facebook and Twitter, that replace clicking navigation with passive scrolling navigation.
  2. A saturated digital ecosystem that makes users feel lost if they click out of the window or app that they're in (Hence the introduction of in-platform news formats, like Facebook Instant Articles and Snapchat Discover).

Who's to blame? Using click referrals as the most successful marketing metric was largely influenced by a free click referral measuring tool created in 2005 called Google Analytics. The tool was built to attribute successful marketing campaigns around referral clicks because referral clicks often come from Google Search, which Google monetizes.

What's next? "Clicks look like a high-performing tactic, but a lot of work is done to get you to type something into a search bar to begin with," AdRoll President Adam Berke tells Axios. Marketers are starting to attribute marketing success towards content exposure that drives you to click something, instead of the click itself. Two key formats increase content exposure: video and passive scrolling. Google and Facebook are investing heavily in products that embody these formats: YouTube and Instagram.

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Turkeys arrive to D.C. to await Trump's pardon

Two turkeys arrived in D.C. today ahead of the 70th annual turkey pardon. According to the White House, the two turkeys were raised in Western Minnesota, and after the pardon will join turkeys pardoned by Obama at Virginia Tech's "Gobblers Rest" exhibit. They will be staying in style at the Willard Hotel, as is tradition.

Past Pardons

President Barack Obama with his nephews Aaron Robinson and Austin Robinson, and National Turkey Federation Chairman John Reicks.Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP

President Bush lets children from Campfire USA pet May,the National Thanksgiving Turkey, as he pardons the bird.Photo: Gerald Herbert / AP


President Clinton admires a 45-pound turkey in the Rose Garden of the White House.Photo: Doug Mills / AP

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Famine, cholera, and civilian casualties: The crisis in Yemen

Yemenis present documents in order to receive food rations provided by a local charity. Photo: Hani Mohammed / AP

On Thursday, the World Health Organization issued a statement requesting that Saudi Arabia discontinue its blockades in Yemen to allow food and medical supplies in to the country. "Together, we issue another urgent appeal for the coalition to permit entry of lifesaving supplies to Yemen in response to what is now the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. The supplies...are essential to staving off disease and starvation. Without them, untold thousands of innocent victims, among them many children, will die."

Why it matters: While the Saudis said Monday they would begin opening ports to allow supplies in, NPR reports aid workers are still having difficulty getting food and medical supplies to millions of people in need. But it's not just famine and cholera that are a concern in Yemen; civilian casualties at the hands of the Saudi-led coalition have long been a concern.

Cholera

  • The U.N. reported at the beginning of the month that there have been over 2,000 deaths due to cholera since the end of April, and almost 900,000 "suspected cases" as of November 1.
  • Head of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Yemen, Alexandra Faite, said "we could reach up to 1 million [cases] the end of the year."
  • An estimated 5,000 people were becoming infected daily as of September, per CNN.
  • Save the Children's country director for Yemen, Tamer Kirolos, told CNN that cholera is "easily treatable if you have access to basic healthcare," but the war in Yemen has left hospitals destroyed, health workers unpaid, and crucial aid delivery impossible.

Famine

  • The blockade initiated by Saudi Arabia has impacted millions of people who rely solely on imported food assistance, the U.N. said.
  • Around 3.2 million people "will be driven to famine, and 150,000 malnourished children are at risk of dying in the coming months," according to Time.
  • Per the non-profit Save the Children, "malnourished children...are at least three times more likely to die if they contract cholera," and there are more than 1 million malnourished children "living in areas with high levels of infection."

Civilian casualties

  • As previously reported by Axios, while the Saudi coalition assured the U.S. it would take steps to avoid civilian casualties, there has been no supporting evidence.
  • While the U.S. is no longer involved in supporting Saudi airstrikes, the U.S. did approve a $110 billion arms deal with the Saudis earlier this year.
  • On Monday, the House passed a mostly symbolic resolution "explicitly stating that U.S. military assistance to Saudi Arabia in its war in Yemen is not authorized under legislation," per Politico. It does not, however, call for an end to support.
  • Politico also reports that there have been an estimated 10,000 civilians killed since 2015.
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Mulvaney: Trump "doesn't know who to believe" on Moore allegations

Screenshot of Mick Mulvaney on "Meet the Press" with Andrea Mitchell.

Mick Mulvaney, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Marc Short, White House director of legislative affairs, both attempted on Sunday to explain President Trump's silence on the accusations of child sexual abuse and other sexual misconduct against GOP Senate nominee Roy Moore:

  • Mulvaney said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that Trump "doesn't know who to believe," and "thinks that the voters of Alabama should decide."
  • Short said on ABC's "This Week" that "the president has expressed his concern" about the allegations against Moore: "As you noted, the president has not gone down to Alabama to campaign for Roy Moore since the primary concluded. We have serious concerns about the allegations that have been made, but we also believe that all of this info is out there for the people of Alabama."
Why it matters: The RNC has pulled its support from Moore and most high-ranking Republicans have repudiated him. Trump hasn't, but he has weighed in on the allegations against Democratic Sen. Al Franken.
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Zimbabwe's Mugabe refuses to resign in speech to nation

Zimbabweans sing and pray at a Christian peace and prayer rally Sunday in Harare. Photo: Ben Curtis / AP

Robert Mugabe, the 93-year-old dictator who led Zimbabwe for 37 years, was expected to resign in an address to the nation Sunday afternoon. He didn't.

He was removed as the leader of his party and was reportedly negotiating his resignation with military leaders earlier in the day, but said in his speech that he planned to preside over next month's party congress. Party leaders have said he'll be impeached if he doesn't resign by early next week. Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is known as a ruthless strongman and was Zimbabwe's vice president until Mugabe precipitated the coup by placing his wife next in line for the presidency, appeared poised to take control. After Mugabe's speech, it's unclear what will happen next.

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Broadcom and Qualcomm move forward on other deals

Raimond Spekking via Wikimedia Commons

Broadcom hasn't yet gotten a "yes" on its takeover approach for Qualcomm, but both chipmakers are moving forward on other deals that could smooth their path to a mega-merger:

  • Broadcom on Friday closed its $5.5 billion purchase of networking switch maker Brocade, which was first announced last November.
  • Qualcomm is set to win "imminent" Japanese antitrust approval for its $38 billion takeover of Dutch chipmaker NXP Semiconductors, according to Reuters, with European approval expected by year-end.

Key move: Broadcom's recent decision to redomicile from Singapore to the U.S. seems to have gotten it over the final regulatory hurdles to buying California-based Brocade, as it had received antitrust approval in July but refiled in October with a U.S. body that oversees foreign investments. It also should aid in buying Qualcomm — although first it needs to make a higher offer.

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System failure on the NYC subway

A northbound #1 on Oct. 31. Photo: Richard Drew / AP

A front-page story from the NY Times' Brian Rosenthal, Emma Fitzsimmons and Michael LaForgia breaks down "How Politics and Bad Decisions Starved New York's Subways," starting with "a perennial lack of investment in tracks, trains and signals."

  • Wait, what? "[T]he actual movement of trains [relies] on a 1930s-era signal system with fraying, cloth-covered cables." (See the archaic equipment.)
  • "Daily ridership has nearly doubled in the past two decades to 5.7 million, but New York is the only major city in the world with fewer miles of track than it had during World War II."
  • "New York's subway now has the worst on-time performance of any major rapid transit system in the world ... Just 65 percent of weekday trains reach their destinations on time, the lowest rate since the transit crisis of the 1970s."
  • "Reporters for The Times reviewed thousands of pages of state and federal documents, including records that had not previously been made public; built databases to compare New York with other cities; and interviewed more than 300 people."
  • Let 'em out!

N.Y. Times Quote of the Day ... Roger Toussaint, former head of the MTA's main union, on what he sees as a focus on flashy subway projects instead of maintenance: "They haven't been spending money on the spine. They've been spending money on the limbs."

P.S. "Conductors on [New York] subway trains have been told to stop addressing passengers as 'ladies and gentlemen' when making announcements about delays, detours or other things, and instead use the gender-neutral terms 'passengers,' 'riders,' and 'everyone.'" (AP)

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Weinstein dominos, updated

Top: Harvey Weinstein, former Amazon Studios head Roy Price, director James Toback, New Orleans chef John Besh. Middle: fashion photographer Terry Richardson, New Republic contributing editor Leon Wieseltier, Mark Halperin, former Defy Media executive Andy Signore. Bottom: filmmaker Brett Ratner, Kevin Spacey, Jeremy Piven, Dustin Hoffman. (AP)

Some stories move so fast and far, we lose sight of the scale. So here's a freeze-frame on a defining story of our time: Men accused of sexual misconduct post-Weinstein, compiled by AP (click for details on each):

Entertainment:

  • Celebrity chef John Besh
  • Comedian Louis C.K.
  • Cinefamily executives Hadrian Belove and Shadie Elnashai
  • Actor Richard Dreyfuss: One woman alleges sexual harassment. He denies the allegation.
  • Director-producer Gary Goddard
  • Casting employee Andy Henry
  • Actor Dustin Hoffman: Accused by woman of sexual harassing when she was 17. He has apologized.
  • Actor Robert Knepper
  • Showrunner Andrew Kreisberg
  • Actor Jeremy Piven: Accused by three women of sexual misconduct. He denies all allegations.
  • Filmmaker Brett Ratner
  • Comedy festival organizer Gilbert Rozon
  • Producer Chris Savino
  • Actor Steven Seagal: Accused by two women of rape. He denies the allegations.
  • Actor Tom Sizemore: Accused of groping an 11-year-old actress in 2003. Utah prosecutors declined to file charges, citing witness and evidence problems. He denies the allegation.
  • Actor Kevin Spacey
  • Actor Jeffrey Tambor
  • Actor George Takei
  • Writer-director James Toback
  • "Mad Men" creator Matthew Weiner
  • Actor Ed Westwick

Media, publishing and business:

  • Billboard magazine executive Stephen Blackwell
  • Penguin Random House art director Giuseppe Castellano
  • New Republic publisher Hamilton Fish
  • Mark Halperin
  • Artforum publisher Knight Landesman
  • NPR news chief Michael Oreskes
  • Amazon executive Roy Price
  • Webster Public Relations CEO Kirt Webster
  • Rolling Stone publisher Jann Wenner: Accused by one man of sexual harassment. He says he did not intend to make the accuser uncomfortable.
  • New Republic editor Leon Wieseltier
  • NBC News booking exec Matt Zimmerman
Politics:
  • Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.)
  • Senate candidate Roy Moore (R.-Ala.)
  • Florida Democratic Party Chairman Stephen Bittel: Accused of sexually inappropriate comments and behavior toward a number of women, Bittel resigned Friday.
  • Florida Democratic state Sen. Jeff Clemens resigned after a report that he had an extramarital affair with a lobbyist.
  • Florida Republican state Sen. Jack Latvala is being investigated by the Senate over allegations of harassment and groping. Latvala has denied the allegations.
  • Kentucky House Speaker Jeff Hoover
  • British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon
Sports:
  • International Olympic Committee member Alex Gilady
  • Former South African soccer association president Danny Jordaan
  • Former FIFA president Sepp Blatter
P.S. L.A. Times front page today: "[Brett] Ratner, [Russell] Simmons face new allegations of misconduct: Powerful Hollywood friends shared party lifestyle."
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Senate tax plan's winners and losers

CNBC screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photo: Richard Drew / AP

Winners, per AP's Marcy Gordon, beginning with a big win for wealthy individuals and their heirs:
  • Corporations win all around, with a tax rate slashed from 35% to 20% in both bills — though they'd have to wait a year for it under the Senate measure.
  • U.S. oil companies with foreign operations would pay reduced taxes under the Senate bill on their income from sales of oil and natural gas abroad.
  • Beer, wine and liquor producers would reap tax reductions under the Senate measure.
  • Companies that provide management services like maintenance for aircraft.

Losers:

  • An estimated 13 million Americans could lose health insurance coverage under the Senate bill, which would repeal the "Obamacare" requirement that everyone in the U.S. have health insurance.
  • People living in high-tax states would be hit by repeal of federal deductions for state and local taxes under the Senate bill, and partial repeal under the House measure. That's the result of a compromise allowing the deduction of up to $10,000 in property taxes.
  • Many families making less than $30,000 a year would face tax increases starting in 2021 under the Senate bill, according to Congress' nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation. By 2027, families earning less than $75,000 would see their tax bills rise, while those making more would enjoy reductions.
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FBI report on "black identity extremists" raises civil rights fears

AP's Jon Elswick

"An FBI report on the rise of black 'extremists' is stirring fears of a return to practices used during the civil rights movement, when the bureau spied on activist groups," AP reports:

  • "The 12-page report, issued in August, says 'black identity extremists' are increasingly targeting law enforcement after police killings of black men ... It warned that such violence was likely to continue."
  • "Black leaders and activists were outraged after Foreign Policy revealed the existence of the report last month."
  • Why it matters: "The Congressional Black Caucus, in a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray, said the report 'conflates black political activists with dangerous domestic terrorist organizations' and would further erode the frayed relationship between police and minority communities."
  • "A similar bulletin on white supremacists ... came out about the same time."
  • "The FBI noted it issued a similar bulletin warning of retaliatory violence by 'black separatist extremists' in March 2016, when the country had a black president, Barack Obama, and black attorney general, Loretta Lynch."