Dec 11, 2017

Alabama polls show wildly different results on election eve

Brynn Anderson/AP

One day before Alabama's closely watched Senate special election between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones, two new polls were published — one from Fox News showing Jones leading by 10 points and another from Emerson showing Moore up by 9 .

Background: Since the Washington Post first reported about alleged sexual misconduct by Moore, polls in Alabama have been going back and fourth between both candidates. So who's really leading? The old addage applies: it all comes down to turnout.

What to keep in mind: As the Washington Post's Philip Bump points out, pollsters use various indicators such as historic results and enthusiasm shown by voters in prior polls, to figure out who will turn out on Election Day. There are also other factors that make it tough to determine who's going to turn out, he added:

  1. This is a highly contested statewide contest with few precedents on which to base estimates.
  2. It's happening under the most polarizing president in modern history.
  3. Moore was already an unusual and controversial candidate prior to the allegations.

Worth noting: There's also speculation that there's a pool of voters who won't admit to pollsters they're voting for a man who's facing allegations of sexual misconduct.

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  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 8 a.m. ET: 1,131,713 — Total deaths: 59,884 — Total recoveries: 233,591Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 8 a.m. ET: 278,458 — Total deaths: 7,159 — Total recoveries: 9,897Map.
  3. Public health latest: The CDC is recommending Americans wear face coverings in public to help stop the spread of the coronavirus. The federal government will cover the costs of COVID-19 treatment for the uninsured, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said.
  4. 2020 latest: "I think a lot of people cheat with mail-in voting," President Trump said of the 2020 election, as more states hold primaries by mail. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock said Friday that every county in the state opted to expand mail-in voting for the state's June 2 primary.
  5. Business updates: America's small business bailout is off to a bad start. The DOT is urging airlines to refund passengers due to canceled or rescheduled flights, but won't take action against airlines that provide vouchers or credits.
  6. Oil latest: The amount of gas American drivers are consuming dropped to levels not seen in more than 25 years, government data shows. Trump is calling on the Energy Department to find more places to store oil.
  7. Tech updates: Twitter will allow ads containing references to the coronavirus under certain use cases.
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Why it matters: For the first time since the early 19th century, many parents and kids — and even grandchildren — are all under the same roof round-the-clock. And if past periods of emergency are any guide, this enforced togetherness could deepen our relationships for years to come.

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