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Brynn Anderson/AP

One day before Alabama's closely watched Senate special election between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones, two new polls were published — one from Fox News showing Jones leading by 10 points and another from Emerson showing Moore up by 9 .

Background: Since the Washington Post first reported about alleged sexual misconduct by Moore, polls in Alabama have been going back and fourth between both candidates. So who's really leading? The old addage applies: it all comes down to turnout.

What to keep in mind: As the Washington Post's Philip Bump points out, pollsters use various indicators such as historic results and enthusiasm shown by voters in prior polls, to figure out who will turn out on Election Day. There are also other factors that make it tough to determine who's going to turn out, he added:

  1. This is a highly contested statewide contest with few precedents on which to base estimates.
  2. It's happening under the most polarizing president in modern history.
  3. Moore was already an unusual and controversial candidate prior to the allegations.

Worth noting: There's also speculation that there's a pool of voters who won't admit to pollsters they're voting for a man who's facing allegations of sexual misconduct.

Go deeper

Republicans pledge to set aside differences and work with Biden

President Biden speaks to Sen. Mitch McConnell after being sworn in at the West Front of the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday. Photo: Erin Schaff-Pool/Getty Images

Several Republicans praised President Biden's calls for unity during his inaugural address on Wednesday and pledged to work together for the benefit of the American people.

Why it matters: The Democrats only have a slim majority in the Senate and Biden will likely need to work with the GOP to pass his legislative agenda.

The Biden protection plan

Joe Biden announces his first run for the presidency in June 1987. Photo: Howard L. Sachs/CNP/Getty Images

The Joe Biden who became the 46th president on Wednesday isn't the same blabbermouth who failed in 1988 and 2008.

Why it matters: Biden now heeds guidance about staying on task with speeches and no longer worries a gaffe or two will cost him an election. His staff also limits the places where he speaks freely and off the cuff. This Biden protective bubble will only tighten in the months ahead, aides tell Axios.

Bush labels Clyburn the “savior” for Democrats

House Majority Whip James Clyburn takes a selfie Wednesday with former President George W. Bush. Photo: Patrick Semansky-Pool/Getty Images

Former President George W. Bush credited Rep. James Clyburn with being the "savior" of the Democratic Party, telling the South Carolinian at Wednesday's inauguration his endorsement allowed Joe Biden to win the party's presidential nomination.

Why it matters: The nation's last two-term Republican president also said Clyburn's nod allowed for the transfer of power, because he felt only Biden had the ability to unseat President Trump.