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Trump tweeted he would take the recent 9th Circuit Court ruling against his travel ban up to the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court disagrees with the 9th Circuit often, somewhere between 61% and 80%. This rate could predict a win for Trump's legal team.

Why it matters: The higher rate of 80% includes both when the Supreme Court reversed or vacated decisions from the 9th Circuit, both of which signal disagreement with the ruling at stake, just to different degrees.

Expand chart
Data: American Bar Association; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

What this means: The Supreme Court reverses a lot of cases from a lot of federal courts, but the 9th Circuit Court tends to get reversed more than the other courts on average.

Don't get caught in this trap: It is tempting to focus on the 80% rate — but this shows when the Supreme Court reversed decisions combined with the times it vacated decisions. The Supreme Court REVERSED 9th Circuit decisions 61% of the time (which excludes decisions that were vacated), which signals disagreement to a greater extent.

Go deeper

Collins helps contractor before pro-Susan PAC gets donation

Sen. Susan Collins during her reelection campaign. Photo: Scott Eisen/Getty Images

A PAC backing Sen. Susan Collins in her high-stakes reelection campaign received $150,000 from an entity linked to the wife of a defense contractor whose firm Collins helped land a federal contract, new public records show.

Why it matters: The executive, Martin Kao of Honolulu, leaned heavily on his political connections to boost his business, federal prosecutors say in an ongoing criminal case against him. The donation linked to Kao was veiled until last week.

How cutting GOP corporate cash could backfire

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Companies pulling back on political donations, particularly to members of Congress who voted against certifying President Biden's election win, could inadvertently push Republicans to embrace their party's rightward fringe.

Why it matters: Scores of corporate PACs have paused, scaled back or entirely abandoned their political giving programs. While designed to distance those companies from events that coincided with this month's deadly siege on the U.S. Capitol, research suggests the moves could actually empower the far-right.

6 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Scoop: Kaine, Collins pitch Senate colleagues on censuring Trump

Sen. Tim Kaine speaks with Sen. Susan Collins. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP via Getty Images

Sens. Tim Kaine and Susan Collins are privately pitching their colleagues on a bipartisan resolution censuring former President Trump, three sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

Why it matters: Senators are looking for a way to condemn Trump on the record as it becomes increasingly unlikely Democrats will obtain the 17 Republican votes needed to gain a conviction in his second impeachment.