Feb 10, 2017

The 9th Circuit's struggles at the Supreme Court

Trump tweeted he would take the recent 9th Circuit Court ruling against his travel ban up to the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court disagrees with the 9th Circuit often, somewhere between 61% and 80%. This rate could predict a win for Trump's legal team.

Why it matters: The higher rate of 80% includes both when the Supreme Court reversed or vacated decisions from the 9th Circuit, both of which signal disagreement with the ruling at stake, just to different degrees.

Data: American Bar Association; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

What this means: The Supreme Court reverses a lot of cases from a lot of federal courts, but the 9th Circuit Court tends to get reversed more than the other courts on average.

Don't get caught in this trap: It is tempting to focus on the 80% rate — but this shows when the Supreme Court reversed decisions combined with the times it vacated decisions. The Supreme Court REVERSED 9th Circuit decisions 61% of the time (which excludes decisions that were vacated), which signals disagreement to a greater extent.

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