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J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Whatever the outcome today, it's bad for House Republican leadership in general and for Paul Ryan specifically.

  1. Outcome 1: Trump cuts a deal with Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows, effectively hijacking the floor and the policy agency. Trump will have learned that if he wants to get anything done, he needs to deal directly with these guys. Meadows will have proven that he can keep his ultra-conservative caucus, which many expected to crack up now that Trump is president, together under the pressure.
  2. Option 2: Trump can't cut a deal with the Freedom Caucus and the bill fails. This is also terrible for leadership. It would show that Ryan oversees a truly ungovernable conference.

Also consider: No matter the outcome of today, Breitbart will go thermonuclear against Ryan. The website's biggest goal, shared by a number of members of the Freedom Caucus, is to remove the Speaker. Watch for that campaign to ramp up as soon as next week.

Go deeper

Updated 44 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Health: Large coronavirus outbreaks leading to high death rates — Coronavirus cases are at an all-time high ahead of Election Day — U.S. tops 88,000 COVID-19 cases, setting new single-day record.
  2. Politics: States beg for Warp Speed billions.
  3. World: Taiwan reaches a record 200 days with no local coronavirus cases.
  4. 🎧Podcast: The vaccine race turns toward nationalism.

Technical glitch in Facebook's ad tools creates political firestorm

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Photo: SOPA Images / Contributor

Facebook said late Thursday that a mix of "technical problems" and confusion among advertisers around its new political ad ban rules caused issues affecting ad campaigns of both parties.

Why it matters: A report out Thursday morning suggested the ad tools were causing campaign ads, even those that adhered to Facebook's new rules, to be paused. Very quickly, political campaigners began asserting the tech giant was enforcing policies in a way that was biased against their campaigns.

2 hours ago - Health

States beg for Warp Speed billions

A COVID-19 drive-thru testing center yesterday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Photo: David Santiago/Miami Herald via AP

Operation Warp Speed has an Achilles' heel: States need billions to distribute vaccines — and many say they don't have the cash.

Why it matters: The first emergency use authorization could come as soon as next month, but vaccines require funding for workers, shipping and handling, and for reserving spaces for vaccination sites.