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Expand chart

Data: Gallup, January-June, 2017; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

Trump's average approval rating over the past six months is at or above 50% for only 17 states, per Gallup.

Notably, the three states (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) that gave Trump the key 78,000-vote margin that set his path to victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election hold an unfavorable view (below 50% approval) of Trump.

Why it matters: As The Washington Post's Philip Bump writes, "If Trump were to win only states where he had at least 50 percent approval in the first six months of this year, he'd end up with 99 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win the presidency." And although not exact, reelection results tend to track with approval polls.

Go deeper

Senate confirms retired Gen. Lloyd Austin as defense secretary

Photo: Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images

The Senate voted 93-2 on Friday to confirm retired Gen. Lloyd Austin as secretary of defense. Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) were the sole "no" votes.

Why it matters: Austin is the first Black American to lead the Pentagon and President Biden's second Cabinet nominee to be confirmed.

House will transmit article of impeachment to Senate on Monday, Schumer says

Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced that the House will deliver the article of impeachment against former President Trump for "incitement of insurrection" on Monday.

Why it matters: The Senate is required to begin the impeachment trial at 1pm the day after the article is transmitted.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Private equity bets on delayed tax reform in Biden administration

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

In normal times, private equity would be nervous about Democratic Party control of both the White House and Congress. But in pandemic-consumed 2021, the industry seems sanguine.

Driving the news: Industry executives and lobbyists paid very close attention to Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen's confirmation hearings this week, and came away convinced that tax reform isn't on the near-term agenda.