If Mitch McConnell doesn't nuke the senate, Neil Gorsuch will need help from 8 Democrats to get confirmed to the Supreme Court. There are 23 Democrats up for re-election in 2018 and 10 of them are in states that voted for Trump, making them the most likely candidates to back the president's pick. The closer a senator is to the bottom right part of this scatterplot, the more vulnerable they might be. These Democrats had slim victory margins in 2012 and Trump cleaned up last year in their home states.

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Data: Dave Leip's Election Atlas, U.S. Senate

Why this might NOT matter: If McConnell invokes the nuclear option (here's our Facts Matter on that), then Gorsuch can sail through with just GOP support.

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President Trump. Photo: Jim Watsonn/AFP via Getty Images

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