Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Tesla's stock is beginning to recover after a brutal start to the year, rebounding about 25% from its June nadir as optimism about second-quarter vehicle deliveries has picked up steam.

The state of play: CEO Elon Musk's message to shareholders that there is "not a demand problem," and June 25 email to employees saying Tesla is "on track to set an all-time record" for deliveries have also helped stabilize the stock. But investors would be wise to sit out any celebration, Charley Grant at WSJ writes.

  • "For starters, record deliveries would hardly guarantee a profit. Tesla managed a net profit margin of less than 2% in the fourth quarter of 2018.... [T]here is reason to believe margins have shrunk since then."
  • "We believe that Tesla has an incentive … to 'move the metal;' in other words, prioritize deliveries over margins and pricing, which it appears to have done this quarter," Barclays analysts wrote last week.

Tesla also now faces more competition on its higher-end Model S and Model X cars, which have much higher profit margins than the mass market Model 3, from Jaguar and Audi.

  • Further, Grant notes, U.S. federal tax credits for Tesla buyers will be reduced again in the U.S. starting today to just $1,875, compared with $7,500 last year.

Go deeper: What Tesla knows about you

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Updated 3 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m. ET: 20,207,011 — Total deaths: 738,910— Total recoveries: 12,452,222Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m. ET: 5,140,512 — Total deaths: 164,502 — Total recoveries: 1,714,960 — Total tests: 63,252,257Map.
  3. States: Georgia reports 137 coronavirus deaths, setting new daily record Florida reports another daily record for deaths.
  4. Health care: Trump administration buys 100 million doses of Moderna's coronavirus vaccine.
  5. Business: Moderna reveals it may not hold patent rights for vaccine.
  6. Sports: Big Ten scraps fall football season.
  7. World: Anthony Fauci "seriously" doubts Russia's coronavirus vaccine is safe
Updated 45 mins ago - Health

World coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said it's too early to say whether next month's elections will be postponed after she announced Tuesday four people had tested positive for COVID-19 after no local cases for 102 days.

Zoom in: NZ's most populous city, Auckland, has gone on lockdown for 72 hours and the rest of the country is under lesser restrictions.

Voters cast ballots in Minnesota, Georgia, Connecticut, Wisconsin and Vermont

Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Primary elections are being held on Tuesday in Minnesota, Georgia, Connecticut, Vermont and Wisconsin.

The big picture: Georgia and Wisconsin both struggled to hold primaries during the coronavirus pandemic, but are doing so again — testing their voting systems ahead of the general election. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) is facing a strong challenger as she fights for her political career. In Georgia, a Republican primary runoff pits a QAnon supporter against a hardline conservative.