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The IEA's World Energy Outlook for 2017 revealed that total global energy demand now rises more slowly than in the past, but still increases by 30% between now and 2040 under the New Policies model, which looks at nations' existing and officially announced policies.

Expand chart

Data: IEA World Energy Outlook 2017, OECD/IEA; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

Other takeaways:

Climate change: Global carbon emissions from energy (which is the main source) increase slightly between now and 2040 in the New Policies scenario.

  • Why it matters: It shows that absent more aggressive efforts to curb greenhouse gases, the world will fail badly to achieve the steep emissions cuts needed to hold the eventual rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees celsius above preindustrial levels — the goal of the Paris agreement aiming to avoid some of the most dangerous climatic changes.

A changing mix: Check out the chart above. It shows the sources of past and future emissions growth and in the process illustrates the seismic shifts underway in global energy.

  • Emissions growth from coal is headed sharply downward as demand stagnates, thanks to renewables and gas playing a more prominent role in the global electricity and industry mix. That's why gas, while emitting much lower carbon than coal on a per-unit basis, becomes a bigger source of incremental emissions growth.
  • Oil becomes a more prominent source of relative emissions growth, thanks to persistent demand for transport and petrochemical production.

No oil peak: Global demand for oil keeps rising in the New Policies scenario, albeit slowing down after the mid-2020s, reaching almost 105 million barrels per day in 2040.

  • Greater auto efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles is more than offset by oil demand from petrochemical production, trucking, aviation and shipping.

Renewables rise: Renewables meet 40% of the growth of energy demand, signaling the huge changes underway in the electricity sector as gas, wind, and solar have gained as coal stagnates.

  • "Renewables capture two-thirds of global investment in power plants as they become, for many countries, the least-cost source of new generation," IEA notes.

Don't forget: Standard disclaimers apply here because, well, it's the future we're talking about. And indeed IEA looks at multiple pathways, including a "sustainable development" scenario that's far more climate-friendly, which we touched on in the Axios stream last night.

Go deeper: Read the detailed executive summary here.

Go deeper

Scoop: Biden weighs retired general Lloyd Austin for Pentagon chief

Lloyd Austin testifying before Congress in 2015. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Joe Biden is considering retired four-star general Lloyd Austin as his nominee for Defense secretary, adding him to a shortlist that includes Jeh Johnson, Tammy Duckworth and Michele Flournoy, two sources with direct knowledge of the decision-making tell Axios.

Why it matters: A nominee for Pentagon chief was noticeably absent when the president-elect rolled out his national security team Tuesday. Flournoy had been widely seen as the likely pick, but Axios is told other factors — race, experience, Biden's comfort level — have come into play.

Updated 25 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Health: WHO: AstraZeneca vaccine must be evaluated on "more than a press release."
  2. Politics: Supreme Court backs religious groups on New York COVID restrictions.
  3. World: Thailand, Philippines sign deal with AstraZeneca for vaccine.
  4. Economy: Safety nets to disappear in December Black Friday shopping across the U.S., in photosAmazon hires 1,400 workers a day throughout pandemic.
  5. Education: National standardized tests delayed until 2022.
1 hour ago - Health

WHO: AstraZeneca vaccine must be evaluated on "more than a press release"

A medical syringe and vial with fake coronavirus vaccine in front of the World Health Organization (WHO) logo. Photo Illustration: Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Top scientists at the World Health Organization on Friday called for more detailed information on a coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford.

Why it matters: Oxford and AstraZeneca have said the vaccine was 90% effective in people who got a half dose followed by a full dose, and 62% effective in people who got two full doses. AstraZeneca has since acknowledged that the smaller dose received by some participants was the result of an error by a contractor, per the New York Times.