Recession

A reliable recession indicator is reversing course

Data: Treasury Department; Chart: Axios Visuals

Economic predictors are ignoring politics at their peril

Illustration of trend line tangled in U.S. capital building
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

When it comes to making predictions about the world economy, policymakers and asset managers are whiffing because they are failing to account for the increasingly dysfunctional state of global politics.

The big picture: The world's top economic concerns — Brexit, the U.S.-China trade war — are the result of policy decisions rather than unavoidable shocks.