Money

The market is pricing in a 50% chance of recession

The statue of the fearless girl outside of the New York stock exchange.
The Fearless Girl statue outside the New York Stock Exchange. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The market is showing a roughly 50% chance of a recession over the next year, according to Goldman Sachs' economic research team.

Why it matters: They watch two market measures — the slope of the yield curve and credit spreads. Both "now indicate sharply higher recession risk than a few months ago," the team noted. But the researchers added they are not sold on a recession. "In our view recession risk remains fairly low, in the neighborhood of 15% over the next year." Goldman analysts predicted the S&P 500 would finish the year at 3000 in its 2019 outlook — 500 points above where it finished 2018.

More retailers are banning cash

Customers ordering salads at Sweetgreen
Customers ordering salads at Sweetgreen. Photo: Dixie D. Vereen/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

More and more businesses like the Drybar chain of blow-dry salons don’t want your money — the paper kind at least, The Wall Street Journal's Katherine Bindley reports.

The big picture: Chain restaurants Sweetgreen and Dig Inn have stopped accepting cash at nearly all of their locations, as have a Starbucks in Seattle and some pubs in the U.K. Massachusetts is currently the only state that requires retailers to take cash, but the inconvenient and sometimes awkward frustrations caused by cash bans have prompted lawmakers in New Jersey, New York City, Philadelphia and D.C. to consider taking up similar legislation.

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