Elections

Expert Voices

Polish parliamentary elections raise stakes for presidential vote

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice political party (PiS), speaks to his supporters.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice political party. Photo: Carsten Koall/Getty Images.

Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS) prevailed this weekend in parliamentary elections marked by a record turnout of 61%, cementing the euroskeptic party's hold on power domestically and potentially impacting democratic trends across the EU.

The big picture: The PiS has presided over fast economic growth (above 5% in 2018), the delivery of generous social programs, and a more conservative course on many issues, such as LGBT rights, that are deeply polarizing. But after an often controversial 4-year term, the party has now received a sign of popular approval.

Study: Market has measurable influence on shareholders’ votes

 Traders work during the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 2
Traders work during the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange this month. Photo: Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

The market can influence how people who own shares vote in U.S. presidential elections, a new study by Rice University and University of Pittsburgh examining the electoral implications of stock fluctuations finds.

The big picture: The study compares electoral preferences with levels of dividend income. It finds the effect of recent stock returns on votes for the incumbent party is stronger in counties with greater market participation. And it suggests that if the market had rebounded instead of falling in 2008, Republican presidential candidate John McCain may have won the states of Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.