Brexit

Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party leads U.K. European elections poll

Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage. Photo: Matthew Lewis/Getty Images

The newly formed Brexit Party, founded in February by former U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage, is leading all other parties in the U.K.'s latest European Parliament election poll by YouGov.

Why it matters: Prime Minister Theresa May promised European leaders that the U.K. would participate in next month's elections in order to secure a Brexit extension, though the country can still avoid that fate if the House of Commons is able to pass a deal before May 23. If Brits who favor remaining in the European Union thought holding European elections might bolster their position and undermine a push toward Brexit, this latest poll suggests they could be very, very wrong.

Economic predictors are ignoring politics at their peril

Illustration of trend line tangled in U.S. capital building
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

When it comes to making predictions about the world economy, policymakers and asset managers are whiffing because they are failing to account for the increasingly dysfunctional state of global politics.

The big picture: The world's top economic concerns — Brexit, the U.S.-China trade war — are the result of policy decisions rather than unavoidable shocks.