Get the latest market trends in your inbox

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with the Axios Markets newsletter. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Minneapolis-St. Paul

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa-St. Petersburg news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa-St. Petersburg

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Family room without a family, in Idlib. Photo: Muhammed Said/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The worst humanitarian crisis of Syria’s brutal civil war is colliding today with what could be the war’s most dangerous geopolitical showdown, after at least 29 Turkish troops were killed in an airstrike.

The big picture: The fighting is taking place in Idlib in northwest Syria, where a ferocious Syrian and Russian offensive has displaced 1 million civilians and infuriated Turkey, which borders the region.

  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly warned Bashar al-Assad and his Russian allies to cease the offensive by the end of the month or face a Turkish military response.
  • Instead, Erdoğan found himself chairing an emergency meeting tonight following the attack, which reportedly came either from Russian or Syrian forces.
  • Turkey is reportedly retaliating against Syrian government targets and conferring with NATO.

Zoom in: Syria's campaign to retake the final rebel strongholds in Idlib — backed by Russian strikes on schools, hospitals and homes — has displaced 1 million people and counting.

  • Turkey closed its borders to them, but a senior Turkish official told Reuters tonight that some may cross into Turkey soon. The official added that Turkey will no longer block the 3.6 million Syrian refugees it hosts from reaching Europe.

With nowhere to go, many in Idlib are sleeping in cars, in caves, in sports stadiums or on the street in bitter winter weather. About half are children.

  • Most are already internally displaced, having fled from other war-torn cities, Hardin Lang of Refugees International tells Axios.
  • The situation in Idlib is on course to eclipse the most severe crises not just of the Syrian War, but of the century so far, Lang says.
  • “The No. 1 thing that needs to be done right now is to reach a ceasefire,” he says.

What to watch: Today’s events make escalation more likely.

  • Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy tells Axios that Erdoğan’s next move will depend on NATO.
  • “Turkey cannot fight Russia on its own,” he says. “If there is no U.S. or European support, Ankara will have to swallow this. But then the conflict will spill over, deeply undermining Turkish-NATO ties (Ankara will say NATO didn’t come to help it).”
  • If the U.S. and NATO stand behind Turkey, he says, they could repair relations and sever ties between Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin. But it's unclear what exactly NATO would be willing to offer.

Where things stand: A previous request for U.S. help, including for a Patriot missile system to defend against airstrikes, was rebuffed.

  • But following tonight’s attack, Sen. Lindsey Graham called on Trump to establish a no-fly zone "to stop the slaughter and get ahead of a humanitarian crisis,” per Al-Monitor.
  • However, Defense Secretary Mark Esper told the House Armed Services Committee Wednesday that there was “no discussion” of the U.S. military “reengaging” in Syria, beyond fighting ISIS.

The bottom line: After nine years, one of the war's most tragic chapters is still being written.

Go deeper

38 mins ago - Health

WHO: AstraZeneca vaccine must be evaluated on "more than a press release"

A medical syringe and vial with fake coronavirus vaccine in front of the World Health Organization (WHO) logo. Photo Illustration: Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Top scientists at the World Health Organization on Friday called for more detailed information on a coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford.

Why it matters: Oxford and AstraZeneca have said the vaccine was 90% effective in people who got a half dose followed by a full dose, and 62% effective in people who got two full doses. AstraZeneca has since acknowledged that the smaller dose received by some participants was the result of an error by a contractor, per the New York Times.

Court rejects Trump campaign's appeal in Pennsylvania case

Photo: Sarah Silbiger for The Washington Post via Getty Images

A federal appeals court on Friday unanimously rejected the Trump campaign's emergency appeal seeking to file a new lawsuit against Pennsylvania's election results, writing in a blistering ruling that the campaign's "claims have no merit."

Why it matters: It's another devastating blow to President Trump's sinking efforts to overturn the results of the election. Pennsylvania, which President-elect Joe Biden won by more than 80,000 votes, certified its results last week and is expected to award 20 electoral votes to Biden on Dec. 12.

Dave Lawler, author of World
3 hours ago - World

Belarus dictator Lukashenko says he'll leave post after new constitution

Photo: Valery Sharifulin\TASS via Getty

Longtime Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has said he will step down after a new constitution comes into force, according to Belarusian state media.

Why it matters: Lukashenko has faced three months of protests following a rigged election in August. He has promised to reform the constitution to reduce the near-absolute powers of the president, but has insisted that his strong hand is needed to see that process through.

Get Axios AM in your inbox

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!