Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stocks took a nosedive for the 2nd consecutive day on Wednesday and the Dow and S&P fell for the 4th time in 5 sessions. But the U.S. Treasury market experienced a far smaller move, as it has been factoring in manufacturing weakness and slowing job growth for months.

Why it matters: The bond market's limited movement in the face of historically weak manufacturing and deteriorating employment data suggests the worst may be over, analysts say.

What's happening: Bearish investors appear to have seized control of stock markets and are now pricing in the effect of the already-in-recession manufacturing sector. While the Dow fell by nearly 500 points on Wednesday, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield dipped just 5 basis points.

  • "The bond market has been more pessimistic about the economy than the stock market for a while, and really the only data that has come out particularly weak has been the manufacturing numbers," Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies & Co., told Axios.

Reality check: Jobs, consumer spending and the all-important services sector, which represents around 70% of the U.S. economy, have largely held strong.

  • "There’s certainly a lot of downside risks, but data suggests [the economy is] still growing," Simons added.

Between the lines: Treasury yields have been incrementally moving lower throughout the year as traders have poured into bonds, correctly betting that U.S. economic data would continue to weaken and the Fed would cut overnight interest rates and ease policy.

  • Stocks, on the other hand, have largely ignored the economic data, moving higher on positive trade war headlines, however thin, and hopes that monetary policy would boost business balance sheets.
Expand chart
Data: U.S. TreasuryYahoo; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Historically, as U.S. stock prices rise, Treasury yields increase as investors sell bonds to buy equities. But that has not been the case over the past year.

The bottom line: With more important data releases to come this week, the stock market may continue to be volatile. But the Treasury market has proven a better representative of the real economy this year and may have found a floor.

Go deeper

Off the Rails

Episode 4: Trump turns on Barr

Photo illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photos: Drew Angerer, Pool/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. Axios takes you inside the collapse of a president with a special series.

Episode 4: Trump torches what is arguably the most consequential relationship in his Cabinet.

Attorney General Bill Barr stood behind a chair in the private dining room next to the Oval Office, looming over Donald Trump. The president sat at the head of the table. It was Dec. 1, nearly a month after the election, and Barr had some sharp advice to get off his chest. The president's theories about a stolen election, Barr told Trump, were "bullshit."

In photos: Protests outside fortified capitols draw only small groups

Armed members of the far-right extremist group the Boogaloo Bois near the Michigan Capitol Building in Lansing on Jan. 17. About 20 protesters showed up, AP notes. Photo: Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images

Small groups of protesters gathered outside fortified statehouses across the U.S. over the weekend ahead of President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration Wednesday.

The big picture: Some protests attracted armed members of far-right extremist groups but there were no reports of clashes, as had been feared. The National Guard and law enforcement outnumbered demonstrators, as security was heightened around the U.S. to avoid a repeat of the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riots, per AP.

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
8 hours ago - World

China's economy grows 6.5% in Q4 as country rebounds from coronavirus

A technician installs and checks service robots to be be used for food and medicine delivery in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, China, on Sunday. Photo: Hu Xuejun/VCG via Getty Images

China's economy grew at a 6.5% pace in the final quarter of 2020, the national statistics bureau announced Monday local time, topping off a year in which it grew in three of four quarters and by 2.3% in total.

Why it matters: No other major economy managed positive growth in 2020. Although the COVID-19 pandemic was first detected in China, the country got the virus under control and became one of the main positive drivers of the global economy even as the rest of the world was largely under lockdown.