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How the world looked on NYTimes.com at 9:20 p.m. Nov. 8, 2016

The memory most likely to conjure Election Night 2016 nightmares for Democrats is The Needle, AP's David Bauder writes.

The Needle, a half-clock graphic by the N.Y. Times' Upshot, displayed in real-time the candidates' probability of victory as votes were counted.

  • Its gyrations triggered anxiety for Hillary Clinton supporters, who frantically refreshed the page, and elation for Trump fans.

The Needle won't be back Nov. 3 — one change in the world of election probability gurus following the 2016 shock.

  • The Times said in announcing its Election Day plans: "Given the changes in the ways voters cast their ballots this year, we anticipate that it may not be possible to declare a winner in a number of key states on election night."

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight used a number on Election Night four years ago (final forecast: 71% Clinton), but won't this year.

  • Silver said the change had more to do with uncertainties created by the high volume of early voting this year than any failures in 2016: "I just think people need to be exceptionally careful."
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Go deeper

Nov 14, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Democracy's machinery worked

"The machinery of American democracy is working," Emily Bazelon writes in Sunday's issue of The New York Times Magazine, noting "America's pandemic election was a remarkable, unlikely feat."

The big picture: A committee composed of officials from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and its election partners earlier this week refuted President Trump's persistent claims of widespread voter fraud and irregularities, calling the election "the most secure in American history."

Trump's 2024 begins

Trump speaking to reporters in the White House on Thanksgiving. Photo: Erin Schaff - Pool/Getty Images

President Trump is likely to announce he'll run again in 2024, perhaps before this term even ends, sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Trump has already set in motion two important strategies to stay relevant and freeze out other Republican rivals. 

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
49 mins ago - Health

Nursing homes are still getting pummeled by the pandemic

Data: AHCA/NCAL, The COVID Tracking Project; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

The U.S. has gotten no better at keeping the coronavirus out of nursing homes.

Why it matters: The number of nursing home cases has consistently tracked closely with the number of cases in the broader community — and that's very bad news as overall cases continue to skyrocket.