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AP/Peter Morgan

"Lights Out for Stocks: The bull's long gallop might be nearing an end," per Barron's cover story by Ben Levisohn:

What to watch for: "Neither longevity nor high stock prices, nor political turmoil usually are enough to send stocks into a protracted slide. The culprit in nearly every case is recession. The mystery is what will cause the next one."

Two possible triggers:

  1. "The S&P 500 is trading at 17.7 times 12-month forward estimated earnings, near the highest price/earnings ratio since the dot-com boom. ... [B]ear markets almost never begin when stocks are cheap.
  2. "At the same time, the Federal Reserve is normalizing interest rates. That, on its own, won't precipitate a bear market, but it could be a catalyst for one if the central bank hikes too much, too fast."

The takeaway: "Markets tumble all the time, but have a way of coming back, as long as the economy continues to grow."

Go deeper

Pelosi's Republican playbook

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

As Republicans fight among themselves, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is showing the myriad ways she deals with the GOP herself.

Between the lines: We've seen Pelosi cut opponents off at the knees, like she did with President Trump, or pretend to forget their names, as she did to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). Now she's feeding oppo research against her House counterpart, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), so others can use the same harsh rhetoric to frame the Republicans as the party of dysfunction.

Exclusive: Houston mayor to lead Black mayors group

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner speaks during a private funeral for George Floyd. Photo: Godofredo A. Vásquez/Pool/Getty Images

The mayor of the city where George Floyd was raised is taking over a group that represents 500 Black mayors in the U.S. amid national pressure to revamp police departments.

Why it matters: Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner will become the new president of the African American Mayors Association as municipalities across the country examine police reforms and deal with the economic fallout from the pandemic.

Delivery industry sees biggest monthly job losses in more than 20 years

Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The pandemic's biggest job winner is losing steam.

Driving the news: People who deliver packages to businesses and homes — classified as "couriers and messengers" by the Labor Department — saw the industry's biggest monthly job losses in more than 20 years in April.