Nov 28, 2017

Uber investors face big decision

Photo: Eric Gay / AP

Japan's SoftBank Group today is expected to launch its long-awaited tender for Uber shares, with an opening gambit that would value the company at around $48 billion, as first reported by Bloomberg.

Bottom line: This deal is unlikely to get done at that price. SoftBank has spent the past month engaged in price discovery, and is now low-balling so as to make its eventual increase look generous.

Expect some early employees to bite, given that it's exhausting to be a paper millionaire who has to keep dodging rent collectors. And all indications are that chairman Garrett Camp will tender shares. Former CEO Travis Kalanick has said he won't sell, while later-stage investors are unlikely to participate, given the prices they initially paid.

  • The real questions revolve around early investors like Benchmark, First Round Capital and Menlo Ventures, which may feel the governance changes tied to this deal will create more long-term value than what is being lost in the short-term. And then there is the Google Ventures wildcard, particularly given the Waymo litigation and its sister firm's recent investment in Lyft.
  • Reminder that the most recent 409a valuation works out to around $60 billion, and the discount on that number is far more consequential than the discount on the last private funding round.
  • Potential sellers will have 20 business days to tender, and expectations are that most paperwork will be submitted late in the process. If the tender were to fail, SoftBank could restart the process in January.

Three days ago I would have said that most sellers will value Uber's strong financial performance and continued growth more than its many PR nightmares, particularly given that a new CEO is now in charge. However, the revelation that Dara Khosrowshahi told SoftBank about its 2016 data breach weeks before telling the public has taken some shine off his nascent regime.

  • Speaking of the hack, some valuation context: SoftBank is asking for around a 30% discount to Uber's last valuation. Equifax currently is trading 21% lower to its pre-hack price, and obviously the Equifax situation was much more consequential for users.

Go deeper: The case for Uber at $95 billion

Go deeper

In photos: How the coronavirus outbreak is impacting on daily lives

A woman receives a rose delivered to her via a drone in Lebanon's coastal city of Jounieh. Photo: Joseph EidAFP via Getty Images

The novel coronavirus pandemic is having a huge impact on the lives of people around the world.

The big picture: The first known case outside China was in Thailand on Jan. 13. Since then, global infection numbers have surged, and governments around the world have responded with measures designed to curb the spread of the virus — ranging from lockdowns to physical distancing enforcement. There were more than 723,000 confirmed COVID-19 infections by early Monday, per Johns Hopkins data). However, life hasn’t stopped because of the pandemic, but it has changed. Here's how.

See photosArrow20 mins ago - Health

World coronavirus updates: Global death toll surpasses 34,000

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, the CDC, and China's Health Ministry. Note: China numbers are for the mainland only and U.S. numbers include repatriated citizens and confirmed plus presumptive cases from the CDC

The novel coronavirus has now killed more than 34,000 people and infected over 723,000 others globally, per Johns Hopkins data. Italy reported more than 10,700 deaths early Monday.

The big picture: Governments around the world have stepped up public health and economic measures to stop the spread of the virus and soften the financial impact. In the U.S., now the site of the largest outbreak in the world, President Trump said Sunday that his administration will extend its "15 Days to Slow the Spread" guidelines until April 30,

Go deeperArrowUpdated 2 hours ago - Health

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 1 a.m. ET: 722,435 — Total deaths: 33,997 — Total recoveries: 151,991.
  2. U.S.: Leads the world in cases. Total confirmed cases as of 1 a.m.. ET: 142,502 — Total deaths: 2,506 — Total recoveries: 4,856.
  3. Federal government latest: President Trump says his administration will extend its "15 Days to Slow the Spread" guidelines until April 30.
  4. Public health updates: Fauci says 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die from virus.
  5. State updates: Louisiana governor says state is on track to exceed ventilator capacity by end of this week — Cuomo says Trump's mandatory quarantine comments "panicked" some people into fleeing New York
  6. World updates: Italy on Sunday reports 756 new deaths, bringing its total 10,779. Spain reports almost 840 dead, another new daily record that bring its total to over 6,500.
  7. What should I do? Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

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