Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Axios on your phone

Get breaking news and scoops on the go with the Axios app.

Download for free.

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

The coronavirus pandemic has changed the game for U.S. businesses, pushing forward years-long shifts in workplaces, technology and buying habits and forcing small businesses to fight just to survive.

Why it matters: These changes are providing an almost insurmountable advantage to big companies, which are positioned to come out of the recession stronger and with greater market share than ever.

What we're hearing: "There is no doubt that the longer this pandemic pulverizes this economy the main victims will be small and midsized companies," Bernard Baumohl, chief economist at The Economic Outlook Group, tells Axios.

  • "We’re seeing the whole business landscape dramatically undergo massive changes and one part of this is how large companies with resources will take advantage of the troubles, travails and financial problems small companies have."

What to watch: Big companies, which have benefited far more from Congress and the Federal Reserve's coronavirus relief efforts, are expected to buy out or simply wait out smaller competitors.

The backstory: The Fed has provided nearly $3 trillion in liquidity since March to reopen credit and financial markets, and corporate titans like Apple, Exxon Mobil and United Airlines have taken advantage, borrowing a record amount of money at rock bottom rates.

  • The lone lifeline for small businesses has been the Payroll Protection Program, which economists have found to be inefficient, ineffective and insufficient, largely excluding the businesses most in need of assistance.
  • In particular, businesses with Black, women, and immigrant owners have disproportionately been shuttered because of the virus.

By the numbers: A recent survey by the National Federation of Independent Business found that 22% of PPP recipients anticipate having to lay off at least one employee or have already.

  • In a separate survey, 23% of small businesses told NFIB they would be able to operate under current economic conditions for no more than six months. Another 21% said no more than a year.
  • "It’s a bleak picture," Holly Wade, NFIB's director of research and policy analysis, tells Axios. "It’s terrible."

A recent survey of U.S. chief financial officers found the difference in outlooks between small and large firms over the next 12 months "is extreme."

  • Expectations at small businesses "have essentially collapsed," says Keith Parker, global equity strategist at UBS Research.
  • Conversely, more than 60% of large firms with sales over $2 billion expect sales growth to accelerate — 49% expect a "significant pickup."

The big picture: The pandemic has ushered in an evolution in business akin to the development of the internal combustion engine or the dot-com bubble crash that accelerated globalization and second generation internet companies, Mohamed Kande, U.S. and global advisory leader at PwC, tells Axios.

  • U.S. companies are making major investments in supply chain relocations out of Asia and closer to home, as well as artificial intelligence and robotics and re-skilling workforces to operate remotely and autonomously.

The bottom line: "That will be a tough environment" for small business, Kande says.

  • "What happens when you have changes like that is you start to see a wave of consolidation. It’s hard for small companies to survive because they don’t have the balance sheets, they don’t have the capital to sustain a crisis for a long time."

Go deeper

Oct 22, 2020 - Technology

Exclusive: Survey reveals pandemic's toll on gig workers

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

More than two-thirds of gig workers have seen their incomes drop during the coronavirus pandemic, with almost a third cutting back on food as they struggle to cover expenses, according to new data from an industry survey shared exclusively with Axios.

The big picture: The pandemic has put ride-share drivers, personal shoppers and others at heightened risk of contracting the coronavirus without netting them benefits or additional pay.

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

U.S. students fell 4 to 5 months behind during pandemic

An empty classroom in Pinole, Calif. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Elementary school students in the U.S. ended the school year four to five months behind their expected level of academic achievement, according to a new report.

Why it matters: Months of school closures and often inferior remote education eroded what schoolchildren would have learned since the pandemic began, and caused some to go backwards.

Updated 1 hour ago - Sports

Olympics dashboard

🚨: Simone Biles pulls out of gymnastics team finals citing her mental health

🏄‍♀️: American Carissa Moore wins first-ever women's Olympic gold in surfing

🎾: Naomi Osaka eliminated from Olympic tennis tournament

⚽️: USA women's soccer ties Australia, propelling them to the quarterfinals

🏉: USA men's rugby knocked out after blowing 21-0 lead to Great Britain

🏊‍♀️: Teen swimmer Lydia Jacoby wins first U.S. women's Tokyo Games gold

👟: World Athletics president supports reviewing marijuana rules in doping

Go deeper: Full Axios coverage - Medal tracker

You’ve caught up. Now what?

Sign up for Mike Allen’s daily Axios AM and PM newsletters to get smarter, faster on the news that matters.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!