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Here's one way to think about the scope of the U.S. shale oil boom — by 2025 it could rival Saudi Arabia's ramp up decades ago as "the greatest increase seen over a sustained period in the industry's history," according to the IEA. Their new World Energy Outlook released last night seeks to put the U.S. oil and natural gas boom in historical context.

Expand chart
Reproduced from IEA World Energy Outlook 2017, OECD/IEA

Check out the chart above: The baseline forecast for an eight million barrels per day rise in U.S. shale oil production from 2010-2025 "would match the largest sustained rise in production ever seen in an individual country, which was in Saudi Arabia from the late 1960s to the 1980s."

Why it matters: The comparison puts the growing leverage of the U.S. in global crude oil markets into stark relief and helps explain why Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers are struggling with how to adapt to the re-emergence of the U.S. as a key petro-state.

Don't forget about gas: "For natural gas...the rise in US shale gas projected from 2008 to 2023 would exceed the growth in gas output in the Soviet Union between 1974 and 1989: this was the period when the gigantic gas finds of Western Siberia, Urengoy and Yamburg, were developed for the domestic market and for export to Europe."

Big picture: The U.S. is already a net exporter of natural gas, and is poised to become the world's largest LNG exporter by the mid-2020s, IEA forecasts. The U.S. is poised to become a net oil exporter by the late 2020s. Bloomberg looks at the IEA's projections for the U.S. here.

Go deeper

Updated 9 hours ago - Sports

The potential GOAT of chess faces intriguing challenger

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The World Chess Championship between Norway's Magnus Carlsen and Russia's Ian Nepomniachtchi began on Friday, 1,094 days after Carlsen won his fourth consecutive title.

Why it matters: During the long, COVID-fueled layoff, chess entered a new era, and with the championship finally here, the age-old game is ready for its close-up.

Department of Interior proposes raising cost of drilling on public lands

A horizontal drilling rig and a pump jack sit on federal land in Lea County, New Mexico. Photo: Callaghan O'Hare/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Oil and gas companies should pay more to drill on federal lands and waters, the Department of the Interior argued in a report released Friday, saying that the current rates were "outdated."

Driving the news: The Department of Interior report said that the federal government's oil and gas leasing and permitting program "fails to provide a fair return to taxpayers, even before factoring in the resulting climate-related costs that must be borne by taxpayers."

10 hours ago - Health

U.S. to restrict air travel from 8 countries over new COVID variant concerns

A COVID-19 vaccine is administered. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The U.S. will impose new air travel restrictions in response to the Omicron variant, a new COVID strain first detected in South Africa, President Biden announced Friday.

The big picture: Air travel from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi will be restricted starting on Monday.