Data:; Chart: Axios Visuals

ISM's stronger-than-expected reading of U.S. services sector data grabbed headlines, but IHS Markit's index told a different story.

Flashback: In December, similar divergence popped up in the two indexes' manufacturing reports, but with ISM's data showing much weaker numbers — the worst manufacturing report in a decade.

  • As I wrote then, "One reason for this divergence, highlighted by IHS Markit's chief business economist Chris Williamson in a recent blog, may be that IHS explicitly tells respondents to 'confine their reporting to U.S. facilities/factories.'"
  • "ISM data could therefore be more heavily influenced by global conditions facing ... U.S.-owned companies than the IHS Markit data," Williamson writes.

What it means: A similar phenomenon may be happening with the services sector — ISM's gauge may be stronger because multinational companies are seeing improved business overseas and translating that into their responses for the U.S. survey.

The state of play: The JPMorgan Global business survey data (compiled by IHS Markit) showed a record surge of just over 10 index points in May.

  • China saw especially strong output growth with the combined manufacturing and service sectors rising at the fastest rate since January 2011, making it the only country on Earth to see its readings in positive territory.

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President Trump made lots of specific economic promises to voters during his 2016 campaign, but only fulfilled some of them before the pandemic plunged America into recession.

Why it matters: Trump's economic record and promises for future prosperity will be front and center during this week's Republican National Convention.

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Small businesses expect longer, milder impact from pandemic

Reproduced from U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Census Bureau released new phase two data from its Small Business Pulse survey last week, showing some of the sectors most impacted by the coronavirus pandemic.

What they found: Hiring and rehiring have slowed and businesses now broadly say they expect recovery from the pandemic to take much longer than previously thought.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 32,471,119 — Total deaths: 987,593 — Total recoveries: 22,374,557Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 7,032,524 — Total deaths: 203,657 — Total recoveries: 2,727,335 — Total tests: 99,483,712Map.
  3. States: "We’re not closing anything going forward": Florida fully lifts COVID restaurant restrictions — Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam tests positive for coronavirus.
  4. Health: Young people accounted for 20% of cases this summer.
  5. Business: Coronavirus has made airports happier places The expiration of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance looms.
  6. Education: Where bringing students back to school is most risky.