Scoop: Trump tells confidants U.S. will quit Paris climate deal - Axios
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Scoop: Trump tells confidants U.S. will quit Paris climate deal

Evan Vucci / AP

President Trump has privately told multiple people, including EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, that he plans to leave the Paris agreement on climate change, according to three sources with direct knowledge.

Publicly, Trump's position is that he has not made up his mind and when we asked the White House about these private comments, Director of Strategic Communications Hope Hicks said, "I think his tweet was clear. He will make a decision this week."

Why this matters: Pulling out of Paris is the biggest thing Trump could to do unravel Obama's climate policies. It also sends a stark and combative signal to the rest of the world that working with other nations on climate change isn't a priority to the Trump administration. And pulling out threatens to unravel the ambition of the entire deal, given how integral former President Obama was in making it come together in the first place.

Caveat: Although Trump made it clear during the campaign and in multiple conversations before his overseas trip that he favored withdrawal, he has been known to abruptly change his mind — and often floats notions to gauge the reaction of friends and aides. On the trip, he spent many hours with Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, powerful advisers who back the deal.

Behind-the-scenes: The mood inside the EPA this week has been one of nervous optimism. In a senior staff meeting earlier this week, Pruitt told aides he wanted them to pump the brakes on publicly lobbying for withdrawal from Paris.

  • Instead, the EPA staff are quietly working with outside supporters to place op eds favoring withdrawal from Paris.
  • The White House has told Pruitt to lay off doing TV appearances until Trump announces his decision on Paris. (In past weeks, the EPA Administrator has gone on TV to say the U.S. needs to quit Paris, but Pruitt told aides he'll be keeping a lower profile. He doesn't want a Paris withdrawal to be seen as his victory. "It needs to be the President's victory," one source said, paraphrasing what Pruitt has told aides.)
  • Pruitt's aides have told associates in recent days that they remain confident the President will withdraw from Paris but they've been worried about him being overseas and exposed to pressure from European leaders and the environmentalist views of his top aides like Ivanka and economic adviser Gary Cohn. Top EPA staff were relieved when Trump refused to join the other six nations of the G7 in reaffirming "strong commitment" to the Paris agreement.

One level deeper: If Trump follows through and announces publicly he plans to withdraw from the Paris deal, an administration official laid out three ways he could do that:

  1. Trump could announce he is pulling the U.S. from the deal, which would trigger a withdrawal process that wouldn't conclude until November 2020 at the earliest. Under the deal's terms, any country can't send notice of its intent to withdraw until three years after the deal entered into force, which was Nov. 4, 2016. The actual process of withdrawal would then take one year. In this time, it's feasible Trump could change his mind, the administration source said.
  2. Trump could declare that the Paris deal is actually a legal treaty that requires Senate approval. Such a vote would fail, and then Trump would have Senate backing to not abide by the deal, which he deems a treaty. A letter that 22 Senate Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, sent to Trump this week urging him to withdraw from the deal, increases the odds of this happening, the source said. Trump could also call for a Senate vote in combination with either the first or third option.
  3. Trump could withdraw the U.S. from the treaty that underpins the Paris deal, which is called the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This would be the most extreme option because it would take the U.S. out of all global climate diplomacy. This process would take just one year.
Will we always have Paris? All of these scenarios take more time and maneuvering than a simple announcement, which ensures the debate about what to do with the climate deal won't be over with any time soon.
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China bought a third of the world's robots last year

Eugene Hoshiko / AP

China bought 90,000 robots and took a third of the market share in 2016, according to an International Federation of Robotics estimate. By 2019, they'll buy nearly 40% of new robots, the organization projects.

  • Why it matters: China could become an even larger force in the export economy, per Bloomberg's analysts.
  • Robots haven't lowered wages in China yet. Manufacturing workers saw raises of more than 50% between 2010 and 2014. But "the rising use of robots ... threatens to exacerbate domestic income inequality" by shifting gains to the owners of capital, Bloomberg reports.
  • Due to its massive population, China still has a relatively low number of robots per humans. There are about 50 robots for every 10,000 workers, compared to the global average of about 75. Beijing wants 150 robots for every 10,000 workers by 2020, the Federation reports.
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There are 3,500 troops in Afghanistan the Pentagon didn't tell you about

U.S. Gen. John Nicholson, top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, left, talks with Col. Khanullah Shuja, commander of the national mission brigade of the Afghan special operations force, and U.S. Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central Command, at Camp Morehead in Afghanistan. Lolita Baldor / AP

There are currently more than 12,000 U.S. troops serving in Afghanistan — 3,500 of them the Pentagon failed to publicly disclose, the Wall Street Journal reported. The Pentagon has disclosed the 8,400 military members stationed in Afghanistan long-term, but kept hidden the number of troops that are sent to the area on a temporary status. The number of troops from other groups such as special forces are almost always kept secret.

Why it matters: The real total number of troops is important in deciding how many more troops will be sent to the country after President Trump's announcement on Monday night. The new strategy is expected to include sending about 3,900 troops to Afghanistan within the next few weeks, military officials told WSJ.

Go deeper with an Axios graphic showing the number of U.S. troops and private contractors in Afghanistan since 2007, here.
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Google and Walmart in a joint offensive against Amazon

Google's Home device. (Walmart)

Walmart and Google are escalating a fierce battle to own virtual assistant shopping, jointly challenging Amazon's towering dominance over the already-lucrative new space in retail, per the WSJ's Jack Nicas and Laura Stevens.

Google is offering up its Home virtual assistant (photo above) and Walmart its vast inventory. As of next month, they will team up on Google Express, the internet giant's e-commerce marketplace. In doing so, they are going against Amazon's Echo.

  • The mountain is steep: As of July, Amazon raked up 45 cents of every dollar spent on-line, up from 43 at the start of the year. Walmart earns just 2 cents. Google's House personal assistant is 26% of the market; Echo is the rest.
  • But the prize is too large to ignore: Amazon has already decimated whole swaths of brick-and-mortar retail, and now has an early grip on the new voice-activated virtual assistant market. Walmart does not want to end up like Macy's and Barnes & Noble, and Google is not satisfied to be an also-ran in e-commerce.
  • So big players are aligning: Walmart is also doing test runs using Uber and Lyft in an attempt to speed the delivery of fresh produce bought through Google Home.

How it works: Pioneered in China, sophisticated voice-activated devices are one of the next waves of technology. Before you know it, you will use virtual assistants for much of your shopping, household chores and office work.

  • It's easier after you get started: Once you've bought a certain brand of toothpaste or toilet paper, you can simply tell your assistant, "toothpaste," and it will have the same brand shipped to you.
  • Free shipping: Amazon has chalked up much of its gains through its $99-a-year Prime program, which offers free shipping. Against that, Google and Walmart are dropping their annual fee entirely if your order hits a minimum, like $25 or $35. The jury is out whether that will prove more effective than Amazon Prime.
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How Netflix knows what you want

Matt Rourke / AP

Four out of five shows watched on Netflix were found by subscribers thanks to recommendations offered them, AP's Frazier Moore reports:

  • "Most every row of program suggestions (even generic-seeming categories like "Comedies" and "Dramas") is tailored for each subscriber."
  • "[A] legion of Netflix 'taggers' screens every program, tagging different elements that compose it."
  • "Viewer habits gathered by Netflix from its 100 million accounts worldwide add more grist to the mill."
  • An example of the secret sauce: "[F]ans of the 2015 film 'The Big Short,' which deals with Wall Street dirty tricks, have been found to respond to the money monkeyshines that animate 'Ozark.'"
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An onstage version of Trump 'screaming at the television'

Rick Scuteri / AP

Instant media reactions to Trump's Phoenix rally, which was followed by protests that police dispersed with tear gas, rubber bullets and pepper spray.

  • CNN's Don Lemon: "He is clearly trying to ignite a civil war in this country. ... He certainly opened up the race wound from Charlottesville. ... A man backed into a corner, it seems, by circumstances beyond his control — and beyond his understanding."
  • NBC's Kristen Welker: "[T]his whole Charlottesville criticism ... has really been getting under his skin. This was his attempt to sort of revive the argument, to re-litigate it."
  • Fox News' John Roberts: "The president had ... a clear win last night with his speech about the new policy on Afghanistan ... But now he's completely changed the subject again."
  • Jon Favreau of Pod Save America, and co-founder of Crooked Media: "Trump's angry that the media reported exactly what he said so he held a speech to deliver a sanitized, redacted version on live television ... I believe Trump just called out the @crookedmedia! ... Trump's going to shut down a government that's controlled entirely by his own party. Very cool."
  • MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell, on the omission of "many sides": "The president has lied to his audience tonight."
  • CNN's Brian Stelter began his late-night Reliable Sources newsletter with the single word: "Poison."
  • CNN's Brian Lowry: "[M]uch of this felt like an aging rock band playing the hits ... But he seemed to ratchet up the rhetoric on his enemies list, which has grown lengthier."
  • N.Y. Times Jeremy Peters, to Brian Williams on MSNBC: "In a lot of ways, what we heard from President Trump tonight was just an extended version of the shouting matches that he's been having behind closed doors at the White House, whether it's screaming at his aides, or screaming at the television. ... I see someone who just doesn't want to lose an argument."
  • WashPost's Bob Costa, to Brian Williams: "Steve Bannon, gone from the White House, but he might as well have been a ghost at this Phoenix event. He hovered over everything."
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Read the original Uber pitch deck

To mark the ninth anniversary of the original Uber idea (then called "UberCabs"), co-founder Garrett Camp posted online the company's first pitch deck. Back then, Uber's business was all about providing private car rides to its members in a more efficient (thanks to smartphones and tech) and affordable way.

  • The deck claimed customers shouldn't have to wait for more than five minutes to get picked up, and predicted early on that passengers would want to share rides.
  • The original service was focused on premium rides, but the original deck mentioned eventually turning to less expensive cars like the Toyota Prius. Uber's first UberX cars, in 2012, were in fact Priuses.
  • Today, countless companies describe themselves as "the Uber of X." Back in 2008, Uber compared its concept to another existing company: NetJets, a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary that sells part ownership or shares of private business jets.
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Phoenix police use tear gas at Trump rally protests

Matt York / AP

Police deployed tear gas, pepper spray, stun grenades and rubber bullets on Tuesday night to break up protest crowds after President Trump's rally in Phoenix, Arizona.

  • "Officers responded with pepper spray to break up the crowd after people tossed rocks and bottles and dispersed gas, Phoenix police spokesman Jonathan Howard said," the AP's Jacques Billeaud and Clarice Silber reported from Phoenix.
  • "But some witnesses said that events unfolded differently," per NYT's Simon Romero, "with protesters throwing a water bottle or two in the direction of the police, before the police fired tear gas into the crowd."
  • "The handling by the police of this peaceful protest was reprehensible," Jordan Lauterbach, a 31-year-old bartender, told the NYT. "I was gassed tonight for exercising my right to express my views. I was disgusted by that."

Videos and tweets below:

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The shift in Medicare spending

Medicare is the largest purchaser of health care services in the country, and over the past decade, there's been a gradual change in how those taxpayer dollars are spent, according to data from the independent Medicare Payment Advisory Commission.

Since 2006, Medicare is shifting money from physician practices and inpatient hospitals (where a person needs an overnight stay), and toward private health insurers and other companies that run the Medicare Advantage and Part D prescription drug programs. Spending also has increased in outpatient settings.

Data: Medicare Payment Advisory Commission; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Why it matters: The Affordable Care Act contributed to some of this shift by cutting Medicare payments to hospitals. But what's happening in Medicare is representative of the health care system at large: the shift to defined benefits and narrow networks of hospitals and doctors, and avoiding hospitalizations whenever possible.

Where more Medicare funds are flowing:

  • Medicare Advantage: Roughly 20 million seniors and disabled people are now enrolled in the politically popular program, which represents 27% of all Medicare dollars. Seniors give those plans high marks, and it's a profitable business for insurers. But there are concerns that Medicare Advantage isn't saving money and that insurers are gaming the program.
  • Part D: The growth of drug prices has blown away the growth of pretty much every other economic good, and Medicare is barred from negotiating discounts with manufacturers. That inevitably has resulted in more money going into the Part D program (14% of all Medicare spending), and the benefits managers that run it.
  • Outpatient hospital departments and clinics: Technology has made it possible for Medicare enrollees to get some procedures and go home the same day, and it's cheaper than treating someone in the hospital. But hospitals also have been buying physician offices and controversially converting them into hospital outpatient departments, resulting in higher fees for the same services.
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Trump details his agenda during Phoenix rally

Alex Brandon / AP

President Trump opened his Phoenix rally tonight with a nod to the upcoming GOP agenda: "We are fully and totally committed to fighting for our agenda and we will not stop until the job is done." He spent the majority of his speech blaming the media for race relations in the U.S., particularly after Charlottesville, but here are some agenda items Trump talked about:

Border wall: "If we have to close down our government, we're building that wall," Trump said in a message to "obstructionist Democrats."

Pardoning Sheriff Joe Arpaio: "Do the people in this room like Sheriff Joe? So was Sheriff Joe convicted for doing his job? You know what, I'll make a prediction: I think he's going to be just fine. OK? But I won't do it tonight, because I don't want to cause any controversy. But Sheriff Joe should feel good."

NAFTA: "And you know that one of the worst deals that anybody in history has ever entered into. We have begun formal renegotiation with Mexico and Canada on NAFTA. And I must be honest, and I've been talking about NAFTA for a long time and I'm sorry it's taken six months, but we have to give notice, and after the notice is given then you have to wait a long time, anyway. Personally, I don't think we can make a deal because we have been so badly taken advantage of. They have made such bad deals, both of the countries, but in particular Mexico, that I don't think we can make a deal. So I think we'll end up probably terminating NAFTA at some point. Probably. But I told you from the first day that we'll either renegotiate NAFTA or we will terminate NAFTA. I personally don't think we can make a deal without termination, but we'll see. You're in good hands."

Tax reform: Trump promised to pass the "first major tax reform in over 30 years." And he said if Congressional Democrats don't support him in this legislation, they'll be "stopping you from getting a massive tax cut."

Filibuster: "So I have a message for Congress tonight. Your job is to represent American families, American people, American workers. You need to represent them on the border, on taxes, on health care — one vote. And on every other issue that affects their lives. And for our friends in the Senate, oh boy."

  • To McConnell: "The Senate, remember this, look, the Senate, we have to get rid of what's called the filibuster rule. We have to. And if we don't the Republicans will never get anything passed; you're wasting your time. We have to get rid of the filibuster rule right now. We need 60 votes and we have 52 Republicans, that means that 8 Democrats are controlling all of this legislation. We have over 200 bills. And we have to speak to Mitch and we have to speak to everybody."
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Brazil antitrust agency challenges AT&T-Time Warner deal

AP

Brazil's antitrust authority said the merger of AT&T and Time Warner should not be allowed to go through unless the companies agree to changes, such divesting certain assets, to prevent the combined company from hurting competition.

Why it matters: Brazil is one of the remaining countries (along with the U.S.) that needs to sign off on the $85 billion deal, which has gotten regulatory authority from 16 countries. While it's hard to know how the recommendation will impact the U.S. review, it will likely be noticed by the Department of Justice since critics of the deal have drawn parallels in the U.S. market.

"I think this will harden any existing concerns DOJ has about the deal," said Gene Kimmelman, former DOJ official who is now CEO of Public Knowledge, an opponent of the merger.

Specifics: "The new company would also have the capacity and incentives to take various forms of discrimination against its competitors in both markets, which could weaken the competitive environment." the Brazilian antitrust authority, known as CADE, said in a statement Tuesday, according to a translation by the FT.

  • CADE also said the proposed deal would allow Time Warner to gain access to sensitive information from all its competitors through Sky (one of Brazil's biggest operators, of which AT&T owns a 93% stake, according to Bloomberg).
  • And AT&T would have access to conditions negotiated by its rivals through Time Warner (one of Brazil's largest pay-TV programmers), "significantly harming businesses and consumers in the pay-TV segment."

In the U.S. A coalition of public interest and consumer groups made a similar argument in a letter to the DOJ last month:

"As both a major programmer and a major distributor, it would be able to use information from both sides of the negotiating table to give itself better deals than its rivals can obtain—it would necessarily know, for instance, what its programming rivals are charging for their content, and what its distribution rivals are paying."

AT&T disagrees: AT&T says the deal benefits consumers and will help provide competition to the likes of Google and Amazon. "AT&T and Time Warner will work with Cade to clarify any issues they may have to promptly reach a final resolution on the matter," the company said in a statement to Bloomberg.

What's next: In Brazil, a decision is expected in November, although that deadline could slip up to 90 days. In the U.S., authorities are reportedly pretty far along in the review and are discussing conditions with the companies, according to WSJ, indicating that the deal is on the path to approval. AT&T still expects the deal to close by the end of the year.