National

An undersea volcanic eruption near the Pacific nation of Tonga triggered a tsunami warning across the islands and for some parts of Japan on Saturday, AP reports. 

The big picture: Tsunami advisories have also been issued for the West Coast of the United States — spanning from the Oregon and California border to the California and Mexico border — and Hawaii, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. 

The latest: The shockwaves extended to Colorado in one direction and through the United Kingdom, as well, according to data monitored via the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

There were no immediate reports of injuries or death and the full extent of the damage remains unknown due to spotty communication with Tongatapu, the largest island, per AP.

State of play: The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano first erupted Friday, sending a plume of ash 12.4 miles into the air, Radio New Zealand reports.

There was a second eruption on Saturday at 5:26 p.m. local time, per RNZ.

It is the latest in a series of eruptions of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano, which is about 40 miles north of the capital.

Tonga's King Tupou VI was evacuated from the Royal Palace after the tsunami flooded the capital Nuku'alofa, per RNZ. 

Our thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Freedman: Meteorologists are viewing the satellite images of the eruption with awe, as it looks like a nuclear explosion with shockwaves rippling out in all directions. 

Air pressure readings in New Zealand and as far away as Alaska have shown evidence of these shockwaves. Small tsunami waves raced outward in all directions, coming ashore in Hawaii Saturday morning. 

Editor's note: This story has been updated throughout based on the most recent tsunami advisories.

Tsunami advisory issued for U.S. West Coast after Tonga volcano erupts

The shockwaves from the eruption extended to Colorado and were felt throughout the United Kingdom.

This satellite image taken by Himawari-8, a Japanese weather satellite, and released by the agency, shows an undersea volcano eruption at the Pacific nation of Tonga Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022

This satellite image taken by Himawari-8, a Japanese weather satellite, and released by the agency, shows an undersea volcano eruption on Jan. 15. Photo: Japan Meteorology Agency via AP

Earthquakes

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Axios Generate

Global warming became local to a new and devastating extent in 2021, with the year ranking as the sixth-warmest on record, according to new, independent data from NASA, NOAA and Berkeley Earth. 

Why it matters: Each year's data adds to the relentless long-term trend, which shows rapid warming due overwhelmingly to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions during the past several decades in particular. 

The global shifts in ocean heat, atmospheric moisture, and surface temperatures on shorter timescales are increasingly being felt in the form of unprecedented and deadly extreme weather and climate events.

The big picture: The three temperature tracking groups matched data released earlier this week by the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, and show how the presence of a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which features cooler than average sea surface temperatures near the equator, failed to dislodge 2021 from the list of top 10 years. 

Between the lines: The next year that features an El Niño in the tropical Pacific, which is La Niña's warmer sibling, is almost assured to set a record for the warmest year, since it can further accelerate human-caused warming. 

Last year featured a relentless series of extreme weather and climate disasters that saw temperatures and water levels reach unprecedented levels. 

A June heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, for example, set a temperature record for the hottest reading (121°F) ever seen in Canada, along with all-time highs in Oregon and Washington. The town that set the Canadian record, Lytton, British Columbia, burned in a wildfire the next day. 

A study found the heat wave could not have occurred without human-caused global warming.

"Changes in extreme events are global warming writ local," NASA's Gavin Schmidt, who directs the agency's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, told Axios in an email.

To illustrate how much the world has warmed in many peoples' lifetimes, consider these two facts, one from NOAA and one from NASA:

The world has not experienced a cooler than average year, compared to the 20th century average, since 1976. 

In NASA's data set, 1988 — the year that climate scientist James Hansen famously testified before Congress, warning that human-caused global warming was underway — long reigned as the warmest year on record. 

Due to the warming since then, 1988 now stands as the 28th warmest year in NASA's data set, according to Schmidt. 

By the numbers: The statistics contained in these reports are astounding, and drive home just how different the climate is today from just a few decades ago. 

Nearly 2 billion people lived through their hottest year on record, since 25 countries earned this distinction, including China and Nigeria. No place on Earth had its coldest year on record, according to Berkeley Earth.

Four of the top 20 largest wildfires in California history occurred in 2021, as heat waves and drought primed the environment for massive blazes. This included the second-largest blaze on record, the Dixie Fire, which scorched more than 963,000 acres.

The nine years from 2013 through 2021 rank among the top 10 warmest years on record, according to NOAA.

The world is now 1.2°C (2.2°F) warmer than preindustrial levels, Berkeley Earth found, closing in on the Paris Climate Agreement's temperature target of limiting warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. 

Beyond that point, scientists say, more perilous and potentially irreversible climate consequences may occur, including melting polar ice caps and loss of iconic ecosystems, such as coral reefs.

The bottom line: Even the world's relatively "cool" years are now ranking among the top eight warmest on the list, with no prospect of slowing global warming, scientists say, unless the world bends the greenhouse gas emissions curve sharply downward, all the way to zero and eventually below zero in coming decades.

Go deeper: In photos: 2021's devastating climate disasters

Earth's climate went off the rails in 2021, reports show

It may have been only the sixth-warmest year, but extreme events dominated much of the planet in 2021.

Climate map showing temperature departures from average during 2021.

Temperature departures from average in degrees Celsius during 2021. (Berkeley Earth).

Climate change

Energy & Environment

Climate disasters in 2021 affected millions of lives, caused billions of dollars in economic loss across the world and brought into stark reality the perils of higher temperatures and climate change in general.

The big picture: Early data has ranked 2021 as the sixth warmest year on record. Climatologists have warned that increased surface temperatures make floods, droughts, heat and cold waves, wildfires and tropical storms and hurricanes more common and intense.

By the numbers: A recent study estimated that extreme weather and climate event disasters last year caused a total of $170.3 billion in economic damages on top of severe human suffering.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 2021 featured the second-highest number of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters on record in the contiguous U.S.

The winter storm that struck Texas in February 2021 left millions without power and killed at least 246 people. A study published in September showed climate change may have worsened the cold snap.

A person shoveling off a sidewalk in McKinney, Texas, in February 2021.

A person shovels snow off a sidewalk in McKinney, Texas, in February 2021. Photo: Cooper Neill/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Wildfires again ravaged the Western U.S. last year, with California recording its second-largest fire in its history. Studies show that climate change is leading to longer wildfire seasons, larger blazes and more fires exhibiting extreme behavior. 

A structure on fire near Janesville, California, during the Dixie Fire in August 2021.

A structure burns near Janesville, Calif., during the Dixie Fire in August 2021. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

Hurricane Ida, one of the strongest and most damaging hurricanes recorded in the U.S., killed at least 91 people across nine states after making landfall in late August, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

The hurricane rapidly intensified all the way up through landfall, a trend climate scientists say is becoming increasingly common in the Atlantic Ocean with global warming.

A person rescuing items from a home devastated by Hurricane Ida in LaPlace, Louisiana, in August 2021.

A person rescues items from a home devastated by Hurricane Ida in LaPlace, La., in August 2021. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Extreme rainfall and flooding brought by the remnants of Hurricane Ida killed at least 40 people across the Northeastern U.S. in early September, including at least 12 confirmed deaths in New York City. 

The deadly deluge is consistent with science showing clear links between climate change and heavy precipitation events. 

A flooded expressway in Brooklyn, New York, in September 2021.

A flooded expressway in Brooklyn, N.Y., in September 2021. Photo: Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images

At least 184 people died in Germany and Belgium from a rare extreme flooding event in July, one that climate scientists say was made worse by climate change. 

A person in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Germany, helping to clean up following severe flash flooding.

A person in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Germany, helps to clean up following severe flash flooding in July 2021. Photo: Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

Thousands of people were evacuated and at least 12 were killed from severe flooding caused by torrential rain in China's Henan province in July.

Rescuers evacuating people from Weihui city after torrential rain caused severe flooding in parts of China's Henan province.

Rescuers evacuate people from Weihui city after torrential rain caused severe flooding in parts of China's Henan province in July.

Typhoon Rai killed over 300 people and injured at least 500 others after striking the Philippines in December. Like Hurricane Ida, this storm rapidly intensified prior to landfall.

An aerial view of destruction in Burgos, Philippines, after Typhoon Rai devastated parts of the country in December.

An aerial view of destruction in Burgos, Philippines, after Typhoon Rai devastated parts of the country in December. Photo: Roel Catoto/AFP via Getty Images

Hundreds of people had to evacuate Greece's second-biggest island of Evia in August after wildfires raged there in drought conditions, destroying homes and businesses and killing wildlife. 

People attempting to extinguish a wildfire near the village of Pefki, Greece, in August 2021. 

People attempt to extinguish a wildfire near the village of Pefki, Greece, in August 2021. Photo: Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP via Getty Images

Unusually intense wildfires also struck parts of Siberia for several months, with some of the northernmost fires threatening to disturb the layer of permafrost that rings the Arctic. 

A firefighter battling a wildfire in Siberia, Russia, in August 2021.

A firefighter battles a wildfire in Siberia, Russia, in August 2021. Photo: Russian Aerial Forest Protection/TASS via Getty Images

A historic heat wave in the Pacific Northwest in late June and early July killed hundreds of people in the U.S. and Canada, and thousands more were hospitalized for heat-related illnesses. 

Climate research shows this event was "virtually impossible" in the absence of global warming.

People resting at a cooling station in Portland, Oregon, during a extreme heatwave in July 2021.

People rest at a cooling station in Portland, Ore., during an extreme heat wave in July 2021. Photo: Kathryn Elsesser/AFP via Getty Images

Go deeper: The last 7 years have been Earth's 7 hottest

In photos: 2021's devastating climate disasters

Climate disasters affected millions of lives and caused billions of dollars of economic loss last year.

Firefighters working on a wildfire in the Sequoia National Forest near Johnsondale, California, in September 2021.

Firefighters work on a wildfire in the Sequoia National Forest near Johnsondale, Calif., in September 2021. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

Last year featured the second-highest number of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters on record in the contiguous U.S., according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

Why it matters: The extreme events of 2021 affected the public health of millions of Americans, destroyed homes and upended livelihoods, and demonstrated the escalating human and financial costs of global warming.

The big picture: During 2021, the contiguous U.S. average temperature was 2.5°F above the 20th century average, which ranked in the top 5 warmest years in the 127 years of record-keeping, NOAA found. 

The Lower 48 states also had its warmest December on record, NOAA found, with an average temperature that was a staggering 6.7°F above average, beating the previous record in December 2015.

The six warmest years have all occurred since 2012. Maine and New Hampshire had their second-warmest year on record, while another 19 states had a top-5 warmest year, the agency stated. 

Extreme weather events, supercharged by climate change, were relentless, with the tally on the billion-dollar disaster list added to all the way to Dec. 30. 

A total of 20 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters killed at least 688 people last year. This was the most disaster-related deaths for this region since the tornado-filled year of 2011. 

Details: The 20 separate billion-dollar disasters rank 2021 in second place for the highest number of disasters seen in a single year, behind 2020, which had 22 such events. The cost of these disasters last year was higher than in the 2020 record year, in addition to the death toll.

The list of billion-dollar events in 2021 includes: The Texas deep freeze, Western wildfires (including the Colorado grassfire on Dec. 30), the Pacific Northwest heat wave, four landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and 8 severe weather events. 

Notably, the severe weather events included the unusual December derecho in the Midwest, which set a record for the highest number of hurricane-force wind reports reported in a single day.   

Context: Long-term trends in billion-dollar disasters show an increase over time, which is related in part to climate change-related trends in extreme events. But global warming is unlikely to be causing the entire uptick. Instead, a growing, sprawling population is also to blame for putting more homes and businesses in harms way. 

Since NOAA's billion-dollar event database began 42 years ago, the country has seen about $2 trillion in damages, with more than 15,000 fatalities. The 2010s  brought costs of $858.4 billion, compared to just $187.2 billion during the 1980s, when adjusted for inflation.

According to NOAA, 2021 is the seventh straight year to feature 10 or more billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. 

U.S. had its second-highest total of billion dollar climate disasters in 2021

A total of 20 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters killed at least 688 people last year.

Image of a house burning during a wildfire in Colorado.

A home burns in the Centennial Heights neighborhood of Louisville, Colo., on Dec. 30, 2021. Photo: Marc Piscotty/Getty Images

The past seven years have been the seven hottest on record, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, which released new global temperature data this morning.

Why it matters: The data shows in vivid detail that, even though 2021 was relatively cool compared to other recent years, it still ranked as the fifth warmest year and continued a trend driven by ever-growing amounts of greenhouse gases in the air.

 The big picture: According to Copernicus, the annual global average surface temperature was 1.1-1.2°C (1.98-2.16°F) above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).

Details: Europe had its hottest summer on record, and saw deadly extreme weather events, such as the flooding that hit Germany, Belgium and several other countries in July. A study subsequently found that climate change made those floods more severe. 

The areas with the most unusual warmth during 2021 included the U.S. West Coast, parts of Canada and Greenland, much of central and northern Africa and the Middle East. 

The regions that saw cooler-than-average conditions, relative to the 1991-2020 average, were in Siberia, Alaska, parts of the Pacific Ocean, and most of Australia, Copernicus found. 

During a sizzling heat wave last summer, a preliminary European heat record was set in Sicily, where the temperature reached 48.8°C (120°F).

Copernicus researchers found wildfire-generated greenhouse gas emissions from North America were the highest on record since such data began in 2003, as the U.S. and Canada contended with massive blazes. 

Of note: Both methane and carbon dioxide, two of the leading planet-warming gases, reached new highs in 2021, with methane making a particularly large jump.

Go deeper: U.S. greenhouse gas emissions jumped in 2021

The last 7 years have been Earth's 7 hottest

Even though 2021 was relatively cool, it still ranked as the fifth warmest year on record.

Map showing 2021 temperature departures from the 1981-2010 average. (Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF)

Departure from average temperatures, Dec. 2021

The Lower 48 states likely had their hottest December on record, new data shows, with numerous locations in the Central States, South and East breaking previous benchmarks by large margins.

Why it matters: Winter is the fastest-warming season in much of the U.S., with widespread impacts for snow sports, drought and fire weather risks. 

By the numbers: Temperatures averaged across the entire state of Texas make December 2021 that state’s warmest, state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said in a statement. 

It is also likely to be the first month to exceed the 20th-century average by more than 10°F, which is a large margin for a monthly record that Nielsen-Gammon pinned in part on climate change.

Tulsa and Oklahoma City had their warmest December on record, as did Baton Rouge, Louisiana. East Coast locations were unusually mild as well, with cities from Washington to Boston having a top 5 warmest December. 

Threat level: December concluded a year of deadly extreme weather events with yet another billion-dollar disaster, with Colorado’s most damaging wildfire on record occurring on Dec. 30. 

Scientists say there's reason to expect even more menacing extreme weather disasters in 2022 after last year brought the uncomfortable realization that even scientists' worst-case scenarios don't fully capture what the climate system is already capable of.

Go deeper: Extreme weather could get even worse in 2022

Lower 48 states likely had hottest December on record

Numerous locations in the Central States, South and East broke previous weather benchmarks.

Weather

Texas has added 36 more deaths to the official death toll from the winter storm that swept across the state in February, bringing the total number of lives lost to 246.

Why it matters: The storm left millions without power as people faced single-digit temperatures and sub-zero wind chill. 

The last report from the state, released in July, put the number of deaths at 210.

By the numbers: Officials attribute 161 deaths to injuries from extreme cold exposure such as hypothermia and frostbite, according to the report.

Twenty-five deaths resulted from "exacerbation of pre-existing illness," including disruptions to dialysis or oxygen treatment, loss of power to medical equipment and frozen medical devices or medication.

Hazardous road conditions contributed to 22 traffic fatalities.

Carbon monoxide poisoning caused 19 deaths.

Fire-related injuries led to 10 deaths, including from space heaters placed near ignitable materials.

Nine deaths were caused by trauma or fractures from falling and slipping on ice, one of which resulted in drowning.

The victims ranged in age from under one to 102 years old.

Worth noting: Experts say it's impossible to track every death due to the storm's reach, the Texas Tribune notes.

A BuzzFeed analysis published in May estimated that 700 people died during the worst outages, hundreds more than the official count.

Texas' official death toll from last year's winter storm rises to 246

The February storm left millions without power as people faced single-digit temperatures and sub-zero wind chill.

Photo of a sign that says Texas with icicles hanging on the bottom

Icicles hang off the State Highway 195 sign on Feb. 18 in Killeen, Texas. Photo: Joe Raedle via Getty Images

Texas

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The wind-whipped firestorm that tore through parts of Boulder County, Colorado, on Thursday struck at the heart of one of America's top climate science and meteorology research hubs.

Now some of the top minds who study how climate change is amplifying wildfire risks find themselves shaken and struggling to process what they just witnessed.

Driving the news: The Marshall Fire destroyed as many as 1,000 homes and may have killed two people, while leaving thousands of others homeless after tearing through Denver's northern suburbs of Superior, Louisville and Broomfield.

The big picture: While 2021 was full of extreme weather events across the United States, this one stands out for targeting some of the top scientists who are responsible for warning the public about growing wildfire risks as the climate changes.

Boulder is home to multiple NOAA labs as well as the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the University of Colorado and the Center for Severe Weather Research. There are also climate intelligence firms and satellite companies located there, such as Maxar.

Researchers told Axios that going into the downslope wind event, a natural occurrence along the Front Range in December, they were wary of grassfires due to the tinderbox dry conditions.

The region had seen months of record dry and warm weather, with Denver recording its latest first snowfall on record, for example.

The drought, warmth and abundance of grasses following a wet spring sent fire weather indices off the charts just as the unusually intense high wind event struck, with gusts reaching the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane.

"Metrics associated with short-term drought, like evaporative demand, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit, were at record or near-record levels for December," said Russ Schumacher, a meteorologist at Colorado State University and the Colorado state climatologist, in an email.

"In our discussions in the Colorado Climate Center in recent weeks, we had noted that fire danger metrics also looked really bad," he said.

Context: Merritt Turetsky, who studies wildfires in Arctic ecosystems at the University of Colorado, said she was not surprised to hear reports of small grassfires breaking out in the high winds that were buffeting her home Thursday.

It wasn't until she saw satellite and radar images that she realized how dire the situation was.

"Climate change led to a perfectly built stack of fuels in the fireplace, ready and waiting to be burned. All it needed was a spark and someone/something to blow on it," she said.

She spent the day glued to social media and reaching out to friends and colleagues in harm's way.

Meanwhile, Schumacher also said climate change played a key role, noting that recent years have caused experts to rethink the meaning of "fire season" in Colorado.

"The event this week will require everyone to expand their imaginations even further of what can happen here in Colorado," Schumacher said.

While a warmer climate is not the only factor behind the disaster, he said, "it’s increasingly clear that a warmer climate is enabling fast-growing fires in situations or times of year that wouldn’t have supported them as readily in the past."

What they did: Unlike wildfires that occur in remote locations, threatening small mountain towns, this one struck a large community unusually well-equipped to study the blaze in real-time.

Josh Wurman and Karen Kosiba study the Marshall Fire using Doppler radar on Dec. 30, 2021.

Karen Kosiba and Josh Wurman study Doppler Radar imagery of the Marshall Fire on Dec. 30, 2021. (Photo: Josh Aikins, University of Illinois)

Karen Kosiba of the Center for Severe Weather Research helped to deploy a "Doppler on Wheels" (DOW) unit — a truck with a rotating, highly sensitive radar attached to it — to scan the smoke plume.

The data her team gathered on Thursday could prove valuable to fire scientists, insurance adjusters and others.

Accustomed to deploying to tornado outbreaks and landfalling hurricanes, Kosiba said watching this event unfold was more emotionally taxing than usual.

"If we are there with a DOW, that's usually not a good thing," Kosiba said. "Usually, I am looking in from the outside. This time I was on the inside," watching parts of her community burn.

"I could see tufts of black smoke popping up and you just knew that was someone's house that just caught fire. I could see flames."

What's next: Turetsky is already thinking of what she'd do differently during the next wildfire threat.

"When something like this impacts your community, it tests your systems. I need a better contact list for the next time. And that is heartbreaking, because it’s a race for time until the next fire hits our community. Not if but when…."

Denver

Picture of the Denver skyline with DEN written across it.

Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporters John Frank and Alayna Alvarez.

Axios Denver

Denver Alerts

Axios Denver Thought Bubble

Climate scientists grapple with wildfire disaster in their backyard

The Marshall Fire hit an area that is a major hub of weather and climate research worldwide.

Picture of flames burning homes during the Marshall Fire in Colorado.

The Marshall Fire burns homes in Broomfield, Colo., on Dec. 30. Photo: RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

Wildfires

The Boulder, Colorado-area wildfires — the most destructive in state history —  were likely made worse by the effects of climate change, including extremely dry conditions and long stretches of record warm weather in recent months.

Why it matters: The Marshall Fire that consumed at least 1,600 acres on Thursday destroyed nearly 600 homes, Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle said at a Thursday news conference.

Climate factors provided the fuel for the devastating fires, while an extreme weather event, in the form of powerful downslope winds coming off the Rocky Mountains, provided the spark and fanned the flames. 

Wind gusts peaked as high as 110-115 miles per hour -- equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. 

Catch up fast: The rapidly-moving flames led to evacuation orders covering more than 30,000 people in Superior, Louisville and portions of other communities.

Officials say downed power lines were the likely cause of the fire, per the Denver Post.

Threat level: The conditions that helped make the fire so devastating bear the imprint of climate change.

They include a record dry and unusually warm July 1 to Dec. 29 in the region, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Russ Schumacher. 

This dry and warm period was preceded by a wet spring, which prompted grasses to grow, only to have them dry out, adding to the combustible situation on Thursday. 

Context: Late December is downslope wind season along Colorado's Front Range, Boulder meteorologist Matthew Kelsch told Axios. However, this event was unusually intense, he said, and overlapped with the tinderbox dry conditions. 

Climate changes linked to Colorado's fire disaster

The urban firestorm could not have happened without a unique combination of climate factors.

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