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Average lifetime per capita CO2 emissions in net-zero scenario

A new analysis offers a sobering window into the challenge of slashing emissions enough to meet the temperature-limiting goals of the Paris Agreement.

Driving the news: The International Energy Agency explores per-capita emissions of people born in different decades that would be consistent with a pathway to net-zero global emissions by 2050.

Younger generations' CO2 output would need to fall massively compared to their elders. IEA analysts say kids born today would emit "10 times less carbon during their lifetimes than their grandparents" under the Paris-based agency's net-zero roadmap.

The big picture: Net-zero by 2050 is a target that scientists say provides a fighting chance of holding temperature rise to around 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. That would stave off some of the most dangerous climatic changes.

Why it matters: Those massive generational emissions changes are only possible under a sweeping transformation of global energy systems, far beyond anything in evidence today.

The net-zero roadmap released last year would see a quadrupling of annual solar PV and wind power capacity additions by 2030 and 4% yearly gains in the world economy's energy efficiency this decade.

There's also electrification of transport, buildings and industrial motors. And almost half the emissions cuts come from tech that's just in early R&D stages.

The bottom line: IEA said young voices must be heard in today's policy decisions: "Younger generations have the most at stake, and they also have the most to gain from successful energy transitions."

A staggering picture of the net-zero challenge

Younger generations' CO2 output would need to fall massively compared to their elders.

Carbon emissions

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

A cyclone slammed into Madagascar's east coast Saturday, causing widespread damage and leaving some 45,000 people displaced as of Sunday, per AP.

Why it matters:  Cyclone Batsirai comes just weeks after Cyclone Ana struck the island on Jan. 22, killing 55 people and displacing 130,000, Reuters reports.

The big picture: At least 10 people were killed by Saturday's cyclone. 

Though the cyclone's winds have now slowed to 80 miles an hour, from peak winds of 145 mph, residents have reported damage including roofs being blown off of houses, flooding, power lines being cut and uprooted trees, per AP.

Some villages have been almost completely destroyed, Environment Minister Vahinala Raharinirina told the BBC.

What they're saying: "It's as if we had just been bombed. The city of Nosy Varika is almost 95% destroyed," Willy Raharijaona, an adviser to the vice president of Madagascar's Senate, told Reuters.

At least 10 dead, thousands displaced after Madagascar cyclone

It's the second cyclone in Madagascar in weeks, after one struck the island on Jan. 22.

A man sits on a bench amid trees that were uprooted and fell on a public garden in the center of Antsirabe following the passage of cyclone Batsirai in Madagascar on Feb. 6. Photo: Rijasolo/AFP via Getty Images

Madagascar

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

A sprawling winter storm that has forced schools to close, knocked out power and massively disrupted road and air travel is expected to blast the Northeast U.S. with heavy snowfall and "treacherous" ice accumulations on Friday before exiting over the Atlantic Ocean this weekend, the National Weather Service said. 

Driving the news: Multiple governors declared states of emergency as heavy snow, freezing rain and ice pummeled much of the Central, Eastern and Southern U.S. On the warm side of the storm, thunderstorms spawned tornadoes in Alabama that killed one person Thursday.

The latest: The storm will bring with it temperatures ranging between 15 to 30 degrees below average from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, per NWS. 

The storm was expected to dump several inches of snow and sleet in Maine on Friday, while parts of central Massachusetts could see a quarter inch of ice.

The NWS said even the northern Mid-Atlantic could receive as much as a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation.

The big picture: Over 133,000 customers were without power in Tennessee, mainly in Memphis, Friday afternoon, according to tracking site poweroutage.us 

More than 76,000 others in Ohio, nearly 24,000 in West Virginia, 30,000 in Pennsylvania and about 60,000 in New York had no electricity. 

Thursday was one of the worst days for air travel this year, with some 5,200 U.S. flights canceled. Over 3,600 others scheduled for Friday were also canceled, per flight tracking site FlightAware.

The NWS warned that after northern Alabama was hit by tornadoes, flash flooding could impact the south of the state Friday.

State of play: Conditions worsened throughout Thursday, particularly in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee, where temperatures at ground level were below freezing, but warmer air was in place aloft, causing rain to fall and freeze on contact with any surface.

Strong winds threatened to down ice-laden trees and power line, the NWS warned residents of western Kentucky Thursday, as moderate freezing rain accumulated on all outdoor surfaces. 

Classes were canceled in parts of Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma for Friday, the New York Times notes.

The governors of Illinois and Texas have issued disaster declarations, the governors of Kentucky and Missouri declared states of emergency and New York's governor has directed state agencies to prepare emergency plans.

In photos: "Expansive" winter storm slams U.S.

Texas governor on storm: No guarantee there won't be power outages 

Climate change may be supercharging Northeast snowstorms

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

"Treacherous" winter storm hits Northeast after blasting South and Midwest

On the warmer side of the storm, tornadoes in Alabama have killed at least one person and wounded several others.

Edward Caldwell works to clear a downed tree at his moms house on February 3, 2022 in Memphis, Tenn.

A man works to clear a downed tree  in Memphis, Tenn. Photo: Brad Vest/Getty Images

extreme weather

Energy & Environment

The Biden administration is taking initial steps to meet a tough goal: powering the government with zero-carbon power around the clock.

Driving the news: Yesterday the General Services Administration — the government's landlord — and the Defense Department announced a formal request for information (RFI) to solicit input.

It follows President Biden's December executive order that calls for 50% of federal power to be emissions-free on a 24/7 basis by 2030 and "produced within the same regional grid where the energy is consumed."

Why it matters: The federal government and the Defense Department, in particular, are massive electricity users, so their efforts can help drive the push for 24/7 clean power methods on a wider basis.

The information request aims is a preliminary step that's designed to better understand the industry's ability to provide hourly matching and the costs involved.

Catch up fast: Some corporations are procuring enough renewables to meet their aggregate annual power demand, but that's hardly the same as avoiding coal and gas entirely.

Avoiding any power from fossil resources on an hourly basis is an emerging challenge that can help deeply decarbonize grids, but is also much tougher.

It's one that some companies and local governments are taking on, with Google hoping to have its operations run 24/7 on clean power by 2030.

Federal officials open push for 24/7 clean power

The Biden administration is taking initial steps to meet a tough goal: powering the government with zero-carbon power.

Climate change

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

A massive winter storm that has slammed much of the country will enter its third day Friday and is expected to slam the Northeast U.S. before exiting over the Atlantic Ocean this weekend, the National Weather Service said.

The latest: The NWS said heavy snowfall and "treacherous" ice accumulations are expected to hit the Northeast Friday. The storm will bring with it temperatures ranging between 15 to 30 degrees below average from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.

Over 6 inches of snow is expected in eastern Maine on Friday, while parts of central Massachusetts could see a quarter inch of ice accumulation. The NWS said even the northern Mid-Atlantic could receive as much as a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation.

The big picture: The storm caused thousands of flight cancellations on Thursday, closed schools and left hundreds of thousands of people across the country without power. 

The governors of Illinois and Texas have issued disaster declarations, the governors of Kentucky and Missouri declared states of emergency and New York's governor has directed state agencies to prepare emergency plans, Axios' Andrew Freedman and Rebecca Falconer write.

A person clearing a downed tree in Memphis, Tennessee, on Feb. 3.

A person clearing a downed tree in Memphis, Tenn., on Feb. 3. Photo: Brad Vest/Getty Images

In an aerial view, U.S. and Texas state flags fly over car dealerships covered in snow

In an aerial view, U.S. and Texas state flags fly over car dealerships as light traffic moves through snow and ice on U.S. Route 183 on Feb. 3 in Irving, Texas. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images

Snow covers the ground during a storm in Detroit, Michigan

Snow covers the ground during a storm in Detroit on Feb. 3. Photo: Matthew Hatcher/Bloomberg via Getty Images

 Ice begins to accumulate on a crumpled American flag

Ice begins to accumulate on Feb. 3 in Memphis, Tenn. Photo: Brad Vest/Getty Images

Two men work to clear a tree off a street in Memphis. Photo: Brad Vest/Getty Images

Ice accumulates on a tree in Memphis. Photo: Brad Vest/Getty Images

A kid sledding down a hill in Dallas, Texas, on Feb. 3.

A kid sledding down a hill in Dallas, Texas, on Feb. 3. Photo: Emil Lippe/Getty Images

People shoveling snow during a storm in Detroit, Michigan, on Feb. 3.

People shoveling snow during a storm in Detroit, Michigan, on Feb. 3. Photo: Matthew Hatcher/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A person pulling a baby in a plastic tote in Chicago on Feb. 2.

A person pulling a baby in a plastic tote in Chicago on Feb. 2. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout. 

In photos: Massive winter storm slams U.S.

The storm caused thousands of flight cancellations and left hundreds of thousands of people across the country without power.

A fallen tree over a road in Memphis, Tennessee, on Feb. 3.

A fallen tree over a road in Memphis, Tennessee, on Feb. 3. Photo: Brad Vest/Getty Images

Forecast <span style="background:#ffbc3b; padding:3px 5px;color:white;">highs</span> and <span style="background:#0b6abf; padding:3px 5px;color:white;">lows</span> at Dallas-Ft. Worth International Airport

Data: National Weather Service; Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios 

Frigid air has once again moved into Texas, with freezing rain, sleet and snow falling in parts of the state, including the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area.

 Why it matters: The cold is prompting concerns about the stability of the electrical grid, which failed in deadly and costly fashion during a more significant Arctic outbreak last year. 

What’s next: Temperatures during this event will bottom out in the single digits overnight in the Texas Panhandle, the teens in Dallas, and the low 30s all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Go deeper: Nearly 5,000 flights canceled as monster winter storm slams much of U.S.

Austin

Austin Alerts

A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Austin. Written by Nicole Cobler and Asher Price.

Axios Austin

Axios Austin Thought Bubble

Winter storms test Texas' electrical grid

Frigid air has once again moved into Texas, with freezing rain, sleet and snow falling in parts of the state.

Texas

A street sign warns drivers of ice prevention operations on highways ahead of winter weather in Dallas, AP Photo

A trend toward rapidly intensifying, powerful hurricanes in recent years is spurring experts to examine more closely how to prepare communities to better withstand such violent weather.

Driving the news: The U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) recently awarded about $13 million over four years to Florida International University's (FIU) Extreme Events Institute to support the design of what is essentially a "Category 6" storm simulator.

The grant will allow FIU to create a testing facility capable of producing winds of up to 200 mph, complete with a water basin to simulate storm surge and wave activity.

Why it matters: Tropical cyclones, known in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific as hurricanes, are intensifying as the oceans and atmosphere warm in response to human emissions of greenhouse gases.

As storms get stronger, they are capable of inflicting more damage to homes and critical infrastructure along the coast, where the strongest winds and worst storm-surge flooding occurs, and also well inland through heavy rainfall.

Context: Currently, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale goes from Category 1 through 5, maxing out when a storm’s top sustained winds go above 155 mph. Yet many storms have intensified so significantly that they might as well be called Category 6 storms, though the broad meteorological community has not rallied around a push to add another number.

In fact, the Saffir-Simpson Scale itself is flawed for other reasons, too, since it does not capture the water dangers of such storms, only the winds.

Hurricane Patricia in 2015 clocked maximum sustained winds of an incredible 215 mph, making it the most intense storm on record in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic Ocean basins. Hurricane Dorian, which struck the Bahamas in 2019, tied the record for the strongest Atlantic hurricane at the time of landfall, with peak winds of 185 mph when it hit the Bahamas.

Details: The new facility at FIU, which will be more heavily outfitted than an ordinary wind tunnel, will be built with the participation of other colleges, including Colorado State University and the Georgia Institute of Technology, along with a private company, AeroLab.

It is designed to be a component of a broader initiative from the NSF to address the threats posed by natural hazards, and allow specialists from different fields to study the combined effects of extreme wind and water hazards on built infrastructure.

According to NSF, existing wind tunnels, computer models and other tools cannot fully capture the failures in infrastructure, from bridges to homes to energy facilities, that are observed during extreme weather events.

Research up to this point has not been done in an integrated manner, bringing multiple types of experts together in one place to examine the hazards.

“Climate change is fueling more intense and more dangerous storms, and cutting-edge research and testing capabilities are clearly needed to meet the nation’s evolving risks,” said Richard S. Olson, director of FIU’s Extreme Events Institute, in a statement. Olson said that within the institute, the new project is being referred to as the “Category 6 project.”

Prepping for "Category 6" hurricanes, using a new wind tunnel

Hurricanes are growing stronger as the world warms.

Illustration of a snow globe filled with a windswept house and tree

hurricanes

Hurricane Ida seen from space nearing landfall (CIRA/RAMMB)

Thousands of people evacuated their homes as a fire at the Winston Weaver Company fertilizer plant in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, that began Monday night, continues to burn uncontrollably.

Why it matters: Dangerous chemicals at the plant could cause a large explosion if the fire continues to burn, AP notes.  

Details: The Winston-Salem Police Department asked for people to evacuate the area within a one-mile radius for up to 48 hours. It has established a shelter for people within the evacuation zone. 

Firefighters had to pull back from the scene as the uncontrolled fire was extremely dangerous, AP reported. They left behind an unstaffed truck to pump water as drones flew over to assess the fire. 

Winston-Salem Fire Chief Trey Mayo told reporters Tuesday that an estimated 500 tons of ammonium nitrate were in the plant and another 100 tons were in a rail car next to it. 

That is more than twice the amount of ammonium nitrate that was present at the 2013 Texas fertilizer plant explosion that killed 15 people, Mayo explained. 

Matthew Smith, a hazardous material expert, told reporters that while the situation is serious, the chemicals being released due to the fire were not an immediate threat to life and health.

Of note: Wake Forest University is just outside the evacuation zone. Classes for the day have been canceled and students are being asked to stay indoors and keep their windows closed. 

What they're saying: "[If] that doesn’t convey the gravity of the situation and how serious folks need to take it, I don’t know how else to verbalize that,” Mayo added in his press conference with reporters.

Thousands evacuate as a North Carolina fertilizer plant fire rages

An estimated 500 tons of ammonium nitrate were in the plant.

North Carolina

By taking into account how increasing surface temperatures will alter both humidity and a measure of the energy contained in the atmosphere, a new study finds the world is at a growing risk of extreme weather events.

Driving the news: The study, published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, focuses on an integrated temperature and humidity metric.

The metric, researchers in China and the U.S. find, shows that as global temperatures climb, humidity and atmospheric energy do so even faster.

The boost in humidity and atmospheric energy, the study shows, are strongly correlated with trends in extreme heat and precipitation.

What they found: Surface warming is causing a faster increase in humidity, since warm air can hold more water vapor, and warming seas and land surfaces are giving up more water into the atmosphere through evaporation.

While unchecked emissions might bring up to 4.8°C (8.64°F) of surface warming by 2100, the study finds it could cause the integrated measure to climb by up to 12°C (21.6°F) by 2100, relative to the preindustrial era.

This could yield an increase of up to 60% in extreme precipitation, with a 40% increase in the energy to power tropical thunderstorms.

Threat level: At the same time, heat extremes could become 14 to 30 times more frequent, due to the combination of high heat and humidity.

The most lethal combinations of ultra-high heat and humidity, which are being seen now in parts of India, the Persian Gulf, North America and Europe, would get hotter and even more deadly, the study finds.

It calls this increase "debilitating," especially for vulnerable populations that lack access to air conditioning.

What they're saying: "It is the humidity increase accompanied by warming which makes climate changes into a climate crisis worldwide," study co-author V. Ramanathan of Scripps Institution of Oceanography said in an email. 

"The humidity amplification of the warming becomes more pronounced as the climate becomes warmer in the future because it increases exponentially with temperature," study lead author Ghuang Zhang of the Ocean University of China told Axios in an email.

Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University, who was not involved in the new research, told Axios the findings make sense, but aren't completely surprising given what is already known about the tie between increasing temperatures and humidity. 

"How much more evidence do we need to see that it's going to be bad if we don't bend the emissions curve [downward]?" he said. "If you're not convinced now, this is probably not going to change your mind."

New metric shows how severe global warming is getting

The most lethal combinations of ultra-high heat and humidity could get hotter and even more deadly.

Illustration of the earth as a steaming teakettle

Scientists recorded a single lightning flash lasting 17.1 seconds in June of 2020 over Uruguay and northern Argentina, becoming the longest lasting lightning flash ever recorded, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced. 

Why it matters: The strike was one of two new new lightning-related world records established by the WMO on Monday, the other being a lightning strike that covered around 477 miles in the southern U.S. on April 29, 2020.

The WMO's Committee on Weather and Climate Extremes uses weather satellites to maintain official records of global, hemispheric and regional weather extremes.

By the numbers: The distance of the April strike is equivalent to the distance between New York City and Columbus, Ohio, or between London and the German city of Hamburg and was 60 km longer than the previous record.

The previous longest duration flash was 16.7 seconds.

Our thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Freedman: Thanks to new observing platforms, scientists are gaining new insights into how lightning forms, its many varieties and the impressive characteristics it can exhibit. 

The satellite-mounted Global Lightning Mapper is one of the tools allowing researchers to track lightning from above, in addition to ground-based sensors. These newly certified records, in fact, could be eclipsed soon due to the new observing capabilities.

What they're saying: “These are extraordinary records from single lightning flash events. Environmental extremes are living measurements of the power of nature, as well as scientific progress in being able to make such assessments. It is likely that even greater extremes still exist, and that we will be able to observe them as lightning detection technology improves,” Randall Cerveny, rapporteur of weather and climate extremes for the WMO, said in a statement.

The big picture: Both of the rec0rd-setting strikes occurred in hotspots notorious for extremely large thunderstorm systems in North and South America.

Go deeper: Extreme weather could get even worse in 2022

Scientists confirm record-breaking 17 second lightning strike

The strike was one of two new new lightning-related world records established by the WMO on Monday

An image of the storms that produced the longest lightning flash capture by a NOAA satellite from April 29, 2020.

An image of the storms that produced the longest lightning flash capture by a NOAA satellite from April 29, 2020. Photo: NOAA

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be unusually active, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane season outlook released Tuesday. 

Why it matters: Hurricanes are nature's most destructive storms, and if this forecast proves accurate, this would be the seventh straight year of above average activity. 

The past two hurricane seasons both exhausted the list of 21 storm names, which was unprecedented. The 2020 season was the most active on record. 

The big picture: NOAA is forecasting a 65% chance that the upcoming hurricane season will be above average, with a 25% chance of near normal activity and just a 10% chance of below normal tropical cyclone numbers. 

In terms of the number of storms, the agency is predicting a 70% chance of 14 to 21 named storms. Of these, six to 10 would become hurricanes, and of these, three to six would intensify into major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

A typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Context: NOAA is basing its forecast on several factors, including sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin and the presence of a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

La Niña is characterized by cooler than average waters near the equator, and it can reduce the winds in the middle and upper atmosphere all the way to the Atlantic. 

These weaker winds can encourage hurricane development by reducing wind shear, which can tear nascent storms apart.

Climate studies show that increasing ocean and air temperatures are leading to wetter, stronger hurricanes, and that rapidly intensifying storms, such as Hurricane Ida last year, are more likely today than just a few decades ago.

Hurricane forecasters also took into account the presence of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, along an enhanced west African monsoon. The monsoon can give rise to groups of thunderstorms moving off the west coast of Africa, that then go on to form tropical storms and hurricanes.

Of note: While the season has not kicked off yet (that happens June 1), some forecasters have raised concerns over an area of unusually mild water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Known as the Gulf of Mexico loop current, if storms were to form in that region or traverse the current, they could rapidly grow into powerful storms. 

Threat level: The greatest threat to life from tropical storms and hurricanes is inland flooding, as shown by Hurricane Ida, which killed more people in the northern Mid-Atlantic from flash floods than it did along the Gulf Coast, where it made landfall.  

Top NOAA, New York City and FEMA officials emphasized this by briefing on the outlook from New York City Emergency Management Department in Brooklyn. 

"I want New Yorkers to be ready," said New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

NOAA predicts as many as 6 major Atlantic hurricanes for 2022

Hurricanes are Mother Nature's most damaging storms, with inland flooding their most deadly threat.

Hurricane Ida nears landfall Aug. 29, 2021.

Satellite image of Hurricane Ida nearing landfall in southern Louisiana in late August 2021. Photo: CIRA/RAMMB

Data: Climate Central/NOAA NCEI; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

A wide range of extreme weather is on tap for the West beginning on Thursday and lasting through Saturday, which could include record heat, high winds, dangerous fire weather conditions and even a major snowstorm. 

The big picture: An intense cold front and storm system dives southeastward across the Rockies, bringing a potentially historic May snowstorm to the Colorado foothills and mountains, while aggravating wildfire conditions prior to its arrival. 

The widespread threat of "critical" fire weather conditions exists on Thursday into Friday, with red flag warnings up across nine states from California to New Mexico and Colorado, even extending into the High Plains states.

The weather conditions threaten to worsen a severe start to the wildfire season across the drought-stricken region. 

Threat level: A powerful cold front and low-pressure area is moving into the northern Rockies, with extremely cold air poised to spill in behind it. 

This front will be preceded Thursday by near-record heat in the Southwest, as well as dry air and high winds.  

In Denver, temperatures will be near 90°F today with high winds, before snow falls Friday night into the first part of the weekend.

The heat today will tie or break records in many places. 

Temperatures in the 90s to around 100°F from the Plains to the Southwest will be as much as 30 degrees above average, the National Weather Service said in an online discussion Thursday. 

"Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities," the NWS stated about the heat in Texas, in particular. 

The heat will also be a key component of the extremely dangerous wildfire conditions Thursday and in some regions into Friday too.

Wild weather includes "critical" fire risk, incoming Colorado snowstorm

Denver may go from about 90 degrees on Thursday to 35 degrees and snow by Saturday morning.

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