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Inches of rainfall in Doon Doon, Australia

Data: Australia's Bureau of Meteorology; Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios

For more than two weeks, Australia’s east coast has been inundated by a series of rainstorms so severe they’ve earned a foreboding moniker fit for today’s supercharged weather, “rain bombs.” 

Threat level: So far, at least 22 people have perished in the floods, and tens of thousands have been forced to evacuate their homes.

Driving the news: Scenes of flash flooding turning city streets and country streams into raging rivers have played out from Queensland, including Australia’s third-largest city of Brisbane, south to New South Wales, including Sydney. 

The floods have been so severe they prompted Prime Minister Scott Morrison to declare a national emergency. 

The big picture: Australia is perhaps the best example of a region that is now, thanks to a combination of natural factors and human-caused climate change, alternating between heat, drought and wildfires on the one hand, and heavy rains with flooding on the other. 

"New South Wales was hit hard by the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires, and now it is in the grips of another climate-driven disaster. The recovery time for communities and emergency services between events is shrinking," Simon Bradshaw, a researcher at the Australian Climate Council, told Axios via email.

Between the lines: Climate change worsens the downpours and associated floods, climate scientists tell Axios, with La Niña conditions in the Pacific also playing a significant role. 

Above average rainfall is common in eastern and northern parts of Australia during La Niña events. November 2021 was the country’s rainiest on record, soaking soils and helping set the stage for the flooding to follow.

Atmospheric rivers are also playing a role. These narrow corridors of extremely moist air can fuel intense precipitation over land, especially if they stall over one area. 

By the numbers: The rainfall amounts in Australia have been off the charts. 

The town of Doon Doon, New South Wales, received 1 meter of rainfall in 48 hours, for a total of about 42 inches. That’s the same as the annual average precipitation in Washington, D.C.

Brisbane had three days, Feb. 26-28, with more than 7.9 inches each day, for a record three-day total of 26.6 inches. 

Flood levels in the town of Lismore in northern New South Wales reached 47.1 feet, about 6.6 feet higher than the previous record.

Context: A firm conclusion of climate change research is that intense precipitation events are becoming more common as the climate warms. This is partly because the atmosphere holds more water vapor with each degree of warming.

What they’re saying: “The amount of rainfall has been record-breaking,” said Kimberley Reid, a climate researcher at the University of Melbourne. Flooding in 2010-2011 had a similar geographical scope, Reid said. 

"Climate change is firmly embedded in the 2022 flooding emergency," Bradshaw said. 

Climate scientist David Karoly of the University of Melbourne was more nuanced in his take. “Both climate change and the occurrence of La Niña are likely to have contributed to the increased risk of heavy rainfall in southeastern Queensland in the current event," Karoly told Axios via email. 

"The difficult part is to precisely quantify the increase in risk or the contribution to the amount of rainfall.” 

What’s next: ​​Flooding is continuing, with a long recovery ahead for the thousands with damaged or destroyed homes. In the coming decades, such events are likely to be more common and impactful. 

Deadly climate change-fueled floods inundate Australia's east coast

"Climate change is firmly embedded in the 2022 flooding emergency that swept through southeast Queensland and New South Wales."

Climate change

Rescue volunteers near flooded houses along the overflowing Hawkesbury River (Getty Image)

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Science

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison declared a national emergency Wednesday to speed up the delivery of aid to parts of the country's east coast that have been devastated by widespread, record floods for several weeks.

What they're saying: The national emergency declaration will "ensure all our emergency powers are available and that we cut through any red tape we might face in delivering services and support on the ground,” Morrison said in the press release.

“We are dealing with a different climate to the one we were dealing with before. I think that’s just an obvious fact,” Morrison said during a visit to Lismore, an area affected by the flooding. 

“And Australia is getting hard to live in because of these disasters.”

The big picture: About 60,000 people were under evacuation orders as of Tuesday due to the severe rains and flash floods that have killed at least 20 people.

Parts of Sydney have received nearly four inches of rain in 24 hours. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the city has had its wettest start to any year on record since 1956, with areas already seeing more than 34 inches of rain in 2022.

Australia's government also outlined new aid measures, including additional disaster payments to adults and children affected by the flooding, and funding to support legal assistance services and the mental health of schoolchildren, among other efforts.

Between the lines: Morrison has received criticism for a perceived slow response to the catastrophic flooding, The Guardian reported. 

Context: Two factors may be worsening the rainfall: climate change and La Niña. 

One of the firmest conclusions of climate change research is that hydrological extremes, both heavy rains and drought, are worsening around the world, including in Australia. 

This is occurring due to warming ocean and air temperatures, which increase both evaporation and the ability of the atmosphere to carry more moisture. 

In addition, heavy rains are more likely in eastern Australia during La Niña years, which feature milder ocean temperatures in parts of the western tropical Pacific Ocean. The outlook for the fall in Australia shows continued wetter-than-average conditions in the eastern part of the country, and these can be tied to the La Niña pattern.

Flashback: In recent years, eastern Australia has fluctuated between drought, heat waves, wildfires and flooding.

A U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report published earlier this month warned that climate change could drastically increase the frequency of the 1-in-100 year flood, transforming it into an event that occurs several times a year. 

Globally, the IPCC report states, "flood risks and societal damages are projected to increase with every increment of global warming."

Go deeper: In photos: 60,000 under evacuation orders in Sydney as floods lash Australia

Australia declares national emergency over severe east coast floods

“We are dealing with a different climate to the one we were dealing with before."

Residents steer boats around flooded houses 

Residents steer boats around flooded houses in the Windsor suburb of Sydney on March 9. Photo: Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images

extreme weather

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Some 60,000 Sydney residents were under evacuation orders as heavy rains and flash flooding linked to climate change pummeled much of Australia's largest city on Tuesday, per Australian emergency services.

The big picture: The severe weather has lashed Australia's east coast since late last month, killing at least 20 people. An Australian Bureau of Meteorology official told a briefing Tuesday that Sydney faced a "tough" 48 hours due to heavy rains, and minor to major flooding was occurring from the state of Queensland's border to Victoria's.

AUSTRALIA-WEATHER-FLOOD Staff of the Camden Sports Club wade through the floodwaters to enter into the building in southwestern Camden suburb of Sydney on March 8

Staff of the Camden Sports Club wade through floodwaters to enter the building in the southwestern Camden suburb of Sydney on Tuesday. Photo: Muhammad Farooq/AFP via Getty Images

 Traffic backed up on a road heading into the Northern Beaches during heavy rain on March 08, 2022 in Sydney, Australia. 

Traffic backed up on a road heading into Sydney's Northern Beaches during heavy rain on Tuesday. Photo: James D. Morgan/Getty Images

A tree fallen beside a car during heavy rain in the suburb of North Balgowlah on March 08, 2022 in Sydney, Australia. 

A tree fallen beside a car during heavy rain in the Sydney suburb of North Balgowlah on Tuesday. Photo: James D. Morgan/Getty Images

Residents look at a car stranded in floodwaters due to heavy rain in southwestern Camden suburb of Sydney on March 8

Residents near a car stranded in Camden's floodwaters on Tuesday. Photo: Muhammad Farooq/AFP via Getty Images

A boat sits next to the main highway next to the Georges River in the suburb of Milperra on March 08

A boat sits next to the main highway near the Georges River in the  Sydney suburb of Milperra on Tuesday. Photo: James D. Morgan/Getty Images

Residents use a pedestrian bridge as floodwaters reach residential areas in southwestern  Sydney on March 8.

TA pedestrian bridge in southwestern Sydney on Tuesday. Photo: Muhammad  Farooq/AFP via Getty Images

In photos: 60,000 under evacuation orders in Sydney as floods lash Australia

Sydney faces a "tough" 48 hours due to heavy rains, an Australian Bureau of Meteorology official said.

 An aerial drone view of houses inundated by floodwater on March 07, 2022 in Woodburn, Australia. 

An aerial view of houses inundated by floodwater in Woodburn in the Australian state of New South Wales on Monday. Photo: Dan Peled/Getty Images

Australia

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A woman looks at rising waters in Queensland, Australia.

Floodwaters rise in Australia on Saturday. Photo: Patrick Hamilton/AFP via Getty Images

Climate Truths

Tens of thousands of people in southeastern Australia were under evacuation orders Tuesday, as days of heavy flooding that have killed at least 12 people showed no signs of abating.

The big picture: Torrential rains that began last week triggered flooding that caused several towns in Queensland and New South Wales to be submerged. The storm system on Wednesday unleashed heavy rains on Sydney, where forecasters warned flooding was expected.

By the numbers: Officials in northeastern New South Wales said they've conducted more than 1,000 flood rescues — including up to 50 people and their animals who were stranded by floodwaters on a bridge in the town of Woodburn overnight, per the BBC.

What they're saying: New South Wales Deputy Premier Paul Toole confirmed at a news conference Wednesday that a third person had been killed by floodwaters in the town of Lismore.

"Today, the focus is on Sydney. We are expecting heavy rainfall over the afternoon into the night and into tomorrow," Toole said.

"If you are getting a knock on the door, if you are asked to leave, please leave," he continued.

"We are looking at substantial rainfall over the coming days. We don't want to see those images where people were standing on the roofs of their houses, not leaving and then having to be rescued."

Context: Scientific studies show human-caused climate change has increased the likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall, which can lead to flooding. Heavy rains are more likely in eastern and northeastern Australia during La Niña years, which feature milder ocean temperatures in parts of the western tropical Pacific Ocean.

However, the ongoing rains exceed what one would expect from La Niña-related trends alone. One of the firmest conclusions of climate change research is that hydrological extremes, both heavy rains and drought, are worsening around the world, including in Australia.

In recent years, Australia has see-sawed between drought, heat waves, wildfires and flooding. 

A U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report out Monday warned "the current 1-in-100 year flood in Australia could occur several times a year" due to climate change.

Globally, the IPCC report states, "Flood risks and societal damages are projected to increase with every increment of global warming."

The IPCC warns of a potential doubling of flood risk and a 1.2 to 1.8-fold increase in GDP loss due to flooding if warming reaches between 1.5°C and 3°C above preindustrial levels, which it is currently on course to do.

Flashback: Thousands ordered to evacuate as "one-in-100-year" floods hit Australia

 Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Thousands evacuate deadly floods in Australia as heavy rains lash Sydney

At least 12 people have died following days of flooding and heavy rains in southeastern Australia.

Properties in the suburb of Goodna in the far southwestern outskirts of Brisbane, Australia, are seen inundated by floodwaters on March 1. 

Properties in the suburb of Goodna on the outskirts of Brisbane, Australia, are inundated by floodwaters on Tuesday. Photo: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

A "megadrought" that grips the Southwest has broken another record, according to a new study. The last 22 years now rank as the driest such period since at least 800 AD, with human emissions of greenhouse gases accounting for about 42% of the drought's severity. 

The big picture: The new study updates findings from research published in 2020 that found evidence for the first partially human-caused megadrought in the Southwest, but noted that a drought in the 1500s rivaled its intensity and duration. That is no longer the case, the new research shows. 

Driving the news: The study looks closely at the 2000 to 2021 period and finds that across southwestern North America, this period was the hottest and driest stretch since at least 1901. 

Human-caused climate change is increasing drought severity by increasing evaporation from the soils, vegetation and inland waterways. 

This is evident in soil moisture trends, among other indications of drought severity. 

The ongoing drought, the study says, "would not be on a megadrought trajectory in terms of severity or duration without [human-caused] climate change," the study states.

Between the lines: The study was published in 2000 and marked the first time human-induced climate change had been blamed for setting off a megadrought. It contained some hope that the drought was ending in 2019, thanks to more abundant rains. 

But dry conditions returned in 2020 and intensified through 2022. The year 2021 was about as dry as 2002, which was drier than any other year for more than three centuries.

Even now, early winter hopes for drought recovery were dashed after record rains and mountain snows in December were followed by equally extreme dry conditions in December into February. 

California snow cover data released Monday shows that the statewide average snowpack declined from 160% in December to 73% as of Feb. 14. This indicates a rare mid-winter melt due to unusually mild temperatures and little to no precipitation. 

Threat level: The ongoing drought is affecting water resources in the growing region. Last year, Lake Mead in Nevada hit a record low, which helped to trigger the first federal "water shortage" declaration for the Colorado River basin. This in turn set off water allocation reductions to several states.

What's next: The study cites previous work showing that human-caused climate change, largely due to the burning of fossil fuels, would raise the odds of long, widespread and severe region-wide megadroughts returning to the Southwest after a multi-century-long absence. 

The appearance of a 22-year-long drought so early, when the planet has only warmed by about 1.1°C (2°F), the study states, is an indication that "this worst-case scenario already appears to be coming to pass."

What they're saying: "It’s clear that at 22 years old, there is no evidence that the 2000s drought is starting to relent," said Park Williams, a climate scientist at UCLA and lead author of the new study, via email. 

Go deeper: A very, very, very dry future for the U.S. West

Editor's note: This story originally ran on Feb. 14.

Southwest megadrought: Last 2 decades were driest in 1,200 years

New study finds that human emissions of greenhouse gases are influencing this event.

Man driving a measuring stick into snow cover to determine its depth.

Sean de Guzman takes a sample of the snowpack on Feb. 1 near Twin Bridges, Calif. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Drought

Millions of people were warned to stay home as Storm Eunice began battering the U.K. and Republic of Ireland on Friday, after forecasters issued rare "danger to life" red alerts for populated areas including London.

Why it matters: Eunice, expected to be the worst storm to hit the countries in over three decades, was bearing down on regions still reeling from other deadly storms that struck Northwestern Europe this week.

The red warnings expired, but high winds are expected to continue into Friday night across the UK, particularly in eastern and southeastern England. 

Our thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Freedman: There's a distinct threat from this developing bomb cyclone of a "sting jet," or small area of extremely intense wind that can form inside certain storms, hitting South West England with winds up to 100 mph Friday morning.

Threat level: The British Army was on standby as Storm Eunice was expected to be the worst storm to hit the U.K in over three decades, with millions of people told to stay home and hundreds of schools closing on Friday, per the BBC.

U.K. Met Office chief meteorologist Frank Saunders said in a statement the "impactful" storm would bring "damaging gusts" to southern and central parts of the U.K.

"The red warning area indicated a significant danger to life as extremely strong winds provide the potential for damage to structures and flying debris," Saunders said.

The red warning in effect for London in the southeast of England was the first such warning for that area, according to the Met Office.

State of play: Republic of Ireland meteorologists issued red alerts for Cork and Kerry — where there were widespread power outages and wind gusts of 80mph reported in some areas, according to RTE.

Meanwhile, the Met Office warned there would likely be widespread wind damage in some of the most populated areas of England on Friday.

In the U.K., the biggest threat was to South West and South East England and South Wales — which on Wednesday recorded winds exceeding 80mph from the earlier Storm Dudley that lashed northern England, southern Scotland and Northern Ireland.

So far, a wind gust of 122 mph was recorded on the Isle of Wright, which if confirmed by the Met Office, would be the highest wind gust on record in England.

On social media, thousands were watching a live video feed of airplanes struggling to land in the violent winds at Heathrow Airport, and imagery emerged of parts of the roof of London's O2 arena being blown off.

The big picture: Violent storms have slammed parts of the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands this week, killing at least five people and causing widespread power outages and travel disruptions.

Warnings for high winds and coastal flooding are in effect in France and other parts of mainland Europe on Friday. There is a risk of significant storm surge flooding along the coast of northern Germany due to Eunice on Friday and Saturday, forecasters warned.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

"Danger to life": Storm Eunice lashes U.K. and Ireland,  hits mainland Europe

Northwestern Europe is still reeling from earlier deadly storms that struck this week.

People view the waves created by high winds and spring tides hitting the sea wall at New Brighton promenade on February 17, 2022 in Liverpool, England.

People view the waves created by high winds and spring tides hitting the sea wall at New Brighton promenade in Liverpool, England, on Thursday. Photo: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

At least 94 people died and dozens remain missing after heavy rain triggered flooding and mudslides in the Brazilian city of Petrópolis this week, Reuters reports.

The big picture: The death toll is expected to rise as rescue workers continue to wade through the destruction left in Brazil's so-called "Imperial City." Hundreds have been displaced.

"We did not expect this tragedy. Our city is over," one resident, who said her niece and niece's daughter were still missing, told Reuters.

Henrique Pereira, a shopkeeper in Petrópolis, said the water came very fast and "with great force," per Reuters. "Our life was already tough with the pandemic and less movement, and this tragedy still comes."

The city has declared three days of mourning.

Driving the news: More than 10 inches of rain fell within three hours on Tuesday, AP reported, citing the state fire department.

That was as much rain as fell in the previous 30 days combined, per AP.

"No one could predict rain as hard as this," Rio de Janeiro’s Gov. Claudio Castro told reporters.

A member of the military police carries a dog which he rescued during the second day of operations at the scene of a mudslide in Petropolis, Brazil on February 17, 2022.

A member of the military police carries a dog he rescued in Petrópolis. Photo: 

What they're saying: "We remain committed to helping others," President Jair Bolsonaro, who is on a trip to Russia, tweeted following the mudslides. 

 "God comfort the families of the victims," he added.

Our thought bubble via Axios' Andrew Freedman: Climate studies show that extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent and severe globally due to human-caused climate change. Brazil has seen both types of hydrological extremes in recent years, with severe drought in some areas along with flooding in others.

Warming air and sea temperatures are intensifying extremes at both ends of the spectrum, scientists warn.

Devastating floods and mudslides kill scores in Brazil

Dozens remain missing and hundreds have been displaced.

View after a mudslide in Petropolis, Brazil on February 17, 2022 during the second day of rescue operations.

View after a mudslide in Petrópolis, Brazil, on Feb. 17  during the second day of rescue operations. Photo: Carl de Souza/AFP via Getty Images

Brazil

A new study found that the West is experiencing an increasing occurrence of hot, dry nights that are contributing to more intense wildfires.

Why it matters: The trends identified in the study, published in the journal Nature, mean that wildfires are able to grow larger and destroy more structures than they used to. It also means less rest for firefighters.

 Zoom in: The researchers found there are now about 11 more flammable nights every year in the West compared with 1979, a 45% increase in four decades. 

This trend is largely driven by human-caused climate change, which is causing nights to warm faster than days. 

It is also causing the West to turn drier overall, particularly in the Southwest. 

Between the lines: The study examined changes in a metric called the vapor pressure deficit, which captures how primed the air and land are for burning. 

They also analyzed satellite imagery for about 82,000 fires to find a threshold value, beyond which intense nighttime fires can be supported. 

They found a 36% increase in annual average flammable nighttime hours between 1979 and 2020. 

What they found: The study shows nighttime fires increased in intensity by 7.2% from 2003 to 2020 globally. But in the West, that figure is 28%.

What they're saying: “Night is the critical time for slowing a speeding fire—and wildfire’s night brakes are failing,” said study lead author and the University of Colorado climate scientist Jennifer Balch in a statement.

Go deeper ... Southwest megadrought: Last 2 decades were driest in 1,200 years

The West's more flammable nights

There are now about 11 more flammable nights every year in the West, a 45% increase in four decades.

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