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California's water management officials are rushing to capture as much runoff as possible from the state's weeks-long atmospheric river storms in an attempt to alleviate water supply concerns stemming from the ongoing megadrought.

The big picture: The massive amounts of heavy snow from the parade of storms have resulted in a statewide snowpack average of 251% for Jan. 17. Winter snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains provides water supplies during the dry season.  

The lower-elevation rainfall has been helping to boost reservoirs, but it has not been enough to squelch the state's worst drought in 1,200 years, which has been impacting agriculture and grocery prices.

State of play: The powerful storms, which are nearing a lull, have been a huge boost for California's snowpack and reservoirs and likely a big help for preventing water shortages during the dry season.  

However, vast amounts of rain falling heavily on saturated soil means much of the water has been running off into rivers and eventually the Pacific Ocean, rather than filling reservoirs and recharging depleted groundwater storage. 

One concern is that it's not clear how long drier conditions will last during the rest of the winter. If the weather pattern shuts off the atmospheric faucet completely, then California could end the wet season with a precipitation deficit. 

What they're saying: The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) warned Monday that it is "acting with urgency to capture as much water as it can to help alleviate #drought conditions, however current infrastructure to move water through the Delta is outdated, vulnerable to earthquakes" and "limits the export of water during these long, sustained winter storms."

"We are no longer managing for just drought conditions or flood conditions, the current situation across the state demands we manage for both simultaneously," said Kris Tjernell, DWR's deputy director for its division of integrated watershed management, on Monday. 

A screenshot of a map showing the California snowpack is a ridiculous 245% of normal and 120% of the peak average snowpack.

Regional snowpack totals as of Monday, Jan. 16. Image: California Department of Water Resources

Snapshot: The latest figures show Lake Oroville, California's second-largest reservoir, at 57% of total capacity, but 101% of the historical average for this time of year.

Meanwhile, the U.C. Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, near Donner Pass in the northern Sierra Nevada, reported that 165 inches of snow has fallen there in January, and 346 inches for this season so far. 

The snow depth at that location is a staggering 10 feet, which is indicative of the extreme snowpack that has built up in mountain areas. 

That is just 14 inches shy of the average seasonal total, which could fall in the next and far weaker atmospheric river storm this week. 

Hydrological whiplash: The onslaught of atmospheric river storms, which have killed at least 19 while causing mudslides, power outages and widespread flooding, illustrates how California is now more at risk of weather whiplash episodes. 

Climate change is intensifying weather whiplash events in a state where precipitation has long been variable, research shows. 

In short, the dry periods are becoming drier, and the wet periods are wetter, as temperatures warm and the air carries more moisture. 

In addition, the portion of California's annual rainfall that comes from atmospheric river events is expected to increase, while the amount that comes from other storms is projected to decrease over time, per Julie Kalansky of Scripps' Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes.

What we're watching: The DWR is calling for the implementation of an updated Delta Conveyance Project, a key climate adaptation strategy, "in part to improve our ability to store high winter flows like the ones we are seeing today for the hotter, drier times we will see in the future," the DWR said Monday.

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Atmospheric rivers force California to manage floods during drought

The state is simultaneously facing flooding and drought.

Floodwaters surrounding a house in California on Jan. 13.

A flooded home beside the Salinas River during rain storms in Salinas, Calif. on Jan. 13. Photo: Josh Edelson/Bloomberg via Getty Images

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California was lashed by the final in a series of lethal atmospheric rivers Monday night — as officials warned it could take weeks to clean up the sustained heavy rains, snow and floods that've hit the state.

The latest: A mandatory evacuation order was issued for a flooded mobile home park in Acampo after 175 residents left voluntarily earlier Monday, per the San Joaquin County Sheriff's Office. The National Weather Service's Sacramento office extended a flood advisory for the area through the night due to ongoing flooding.

President Biden will on Thursday visit communities along California's central coast that have been affected by the storms, which have killed at least 19 people since they first hit in late December, the White House said Monday night.

Biden will meet with first responders, state and local officials during his visit, per the White House statement.

A screenshot of a tweet from the San Joaquin County Sheriff's Office showing a flooded mobile home park that notes 175 residents voluntarily evacuated.

Photo: San Joaquin County Sheriff's Office/Twitter

State of play: "One last moist storm system" would impact parts of California Monday with locally heavy rain, mountain snow and gusty winds, the National Weather Service said in a forecast update Monday night.

"Precipitation will taper off in California and heavy mountain snow will spread across the Southwest, Rockies, and into the High Plains," with the last in a "long series of Atmospheric River events" to move to the Four Corners region of the U.S. Southwest on Tuesday, the NWS said in a later update.

Threat level: Flood warnings continued in place for areas including along the Salinas River, affecting Monterey County, and Michigan Bar, along the Cosumnes River and at Mormon Slough at Bellota, the NWS in Sacramento said Monday.

Highway 1 in the Monterey County area near Big Sur was showing "significant instability" as a result of the rain, per the California Department of Transportation.

Hazardous ocean conditions in Los Angeles County area was expected to last through much of the week, per the NWS' L.A. office.

Heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada was continuing into Monday evening, greatly impacting travel in the area and officials have warned drivers to stay off the roads. 

A screenshot of an NWS tweet showing San Diego has received 178% more rain than usual from Oct. 1 to Jan. 16.

Photo: National Weather Service San Diego/Twitter

By the numbers: As of Monday, mountain snowpack statewide is at 247% of average for the date, and 120% of average for April 1, which is the typical seasonal peak, according to the California Cooperative Snow Surveys.

Snow water, which is the amount of water that would be created if all the snow melted, is equivalent to 31.6 inches.

Meanwhile, several daily rainfall records were set Sunday, including in downtown Los Angeles with 1.82 inches, bringing the season total (since Oct. 1) to 11.91 inches — some 6.46 inches above normal to date, per the NWS. 

The Ventura County Sheriff’s Office said some 17 inches of rain that fell over a one-week period left behind "towering piles of rock and mud" that were up to 40 feet high in some places, blocking the only road into and out of the Matilija Canyon in Los Padres National Forest, per the Los Angeles Times.

Local sheriffs rescued 70 people from the canyon by helicopter during last week's downpour and Ventura County Public Works officials told the outlet it could take three weeks "to clear the road and another six months to fully repair it."

A  man carries his son while his wife waits to be rescued from their flooded home in Brentwood, Calif., on Jan. 15. Photo: Jose Carlos Fajardo/MediaNews Group/East Bay Times via Getty Images

Context: Atmospheric river events are potent because they are narrow currents in the lower atmosphere that can carry vast amounts of water vapor thousands of miles from the tropics to mid-and-northern latitudes.

Climate change is adding even more moisture to atmospheric rivers, enabling them to dump higher rain and snow totals, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

A screenshot of an NWS tweet showing it issued 147 significant weather advisories from Dec. 26 to Jan. 16.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details throughout.

California faces weeks of cleanup as "one last" major storm lashes state

President Biden will on Thursday visit communities along California's central coast that have been affected by the storms that have killed at least 19 people.

An eroding sea cliff is seen behind the Capitola Wharf, damaged after recent storms in Capitola on Jan. 15. Photo: David McNew/AFP via Getty Images

California

Two more potent atmospheric river storms are hitting California Saturday through Tuesday. With the ground already saturated, the water has no place to go except to run off, causing deadly flooding. 

The big picture: The latest storm is prompting evacuations due to high water, and flood watches are in effect for two-thirds of the state's population. 

In the San Francisco Bay area, flood watches continue through Monday. 

In the mountains, snow depth is already at record levels for this time of year. 

As of Saturday, the state reported that mountain snowpack is at 263% of average for the date, and 126% of average for April 1, which is the typical seasonal peak. 

Following the several additional feet forecast to fall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, some locations will have received at least 200 inches in just a single month. 

The latest: In Santa Cruz County, communities that had been evacuated and flooded earlier in the storm series are under evacuation orders once again amid flash flood warnings. This includes areas along the San Lorenzo River, including Felton Grove. 

Screenshot of a tweet showing rising water levels along the San Lorenzo River in Calif.

Evacuations were also underway Saturday for Soquel Village in Santa Cruz County.

High winds are also buffeting northern and central California, with gusts around 50 mph. Given the soggy soil, such wind speeds are enough to topple trees and power lines, knocking out power. 

As of Saturday afternoon, about 36,000 customers were without power in California, but that number is expected to grow as winds increase through the evening.

NWS observations showed that between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain had fallen across the Bay Area, with more rain and scattered thunderstorms in the forecast for the evening and overnight hours. 

California's mountains see staggering snowfall totals

Data: National Weather Service;  Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Winter storm warnings are in effect for the higher elevations of California,  including areas from Lassen National Park in the north, southward to Lake Tahoe and all the way to the mountains of San Diego County. 

Between the current storm and another one anticipated Sunday through Tuesday, some areas may see another five to six feet of snow on top of what has already fallen so far during the blitz of atmospheric river storms off the Pacific Ocean. 

The snow pack is so thick there is an increasing danger of avalanches, and infrastructure concerns are growing with several feet of snow sitting on rooftops, potentially causing some homes and businesses to be damaged. 

So far, the extraordinary amounts of precipitation dumped on California in the past few weeks have killed 19 people and caused upwards of $1 billion in estimated damages. 

There are signs of a weather pattern shift toward the end of next week, with dry high pressure moving into the state. However, it is unclear if this will be a fleeting break, or a lasting shift. 

"Do we stay dry through the end of month?" asked forecasters at the NWS in the Bay Area in an online forecast discussion. 

California's weather whiplash has climate change ties

Atmospheric rivers are narrow currents in the lower atmosphere that can carry vast amounts of water vapor thousands of miles from the tropics to mid-and-northern latitudes. 

Historically, atmospheric river events have been responsible for both a majority of the Golden State's precipitation each year, but also for its history of megafloods.

Climate change is adding even more moisture to atmospheric rivers, enabling them to dump higher rain and snow totals.

While the heavy rain and snow is recharging reservoirs and alleviating the soil moisture drought, California is still in a long-term severe drought from a groundwater and agricultural perspective. 

Studies show that climate change raises the odds of weather whiplash events from drought to flooding and back again.

In photos: "Potent" atmospheric river causes damage across California

3 more atmospheric rivers to slam flood-hit California

California's atmospheric river onslaught is not over yet

California flooded by yet more powerful atmospheric river storms

The state has never seen so much snow this early in the season.

Floodwaters from the overflowing Salinas River surround a home in Salinas, California, on Jan. 13.

Floodwaters from the overflowing Salinas River surround a home in Salinas, Calif. on Jan. 13. Photo: Josh Edelson/Bloomberg via Getty Images.

Believe it or not, average global surface temperatures have actually been relatively cool over the last three years — but that's about to change.

Why it matters: Temperatures are expected to jump this year — and 2024 could set a new global record.

The big picture: A rare "triple dip" La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean kept temperatures in check in 2022, with the year ranking fifth-warmest since instrument records began.

La Niña events are characterized by cooler-than-average waters in the equatorial tropical Pacific, and tend to put a lid on global temperatures. 

But 2022 still wound up as the fifth warmest year on record according to NASA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. And if the phenomena dissipates, as forecasts increasingly indicate, global temperatures would likely jump this year and even more so next year.

If an El Niño event — characterized by milder than average ocean temperatures — sets in across the tropical Pacific, 2023 could even meet or come close to hitting a record high.

What they're saying: "I forecast about a 15% possibility of a new record in 2023. And if we are in an El Niño by the end of 2023, an almost certainty of a new record in 2024," Gavin Schmidt, who heads NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, told Axios via email.

Zoom in: According to NASA, the record-warmest year occurred in 2020 and 2016, the latter of which occurred when there was a major El Niño underway. This has led some climate change doubters to claim that global warming halted in 2016.

However, surface temperatures are just one sign of global warming. Other climate indicators all showed signs of continued global warming during 2022. Ocean heat content hit a record high, a recent study found.

Glaciers continued to shrink, sea levels kept rising, and extreme weather and climate events continued to batter countries around the world.

Studies tied many of these deadly extreme events to human-caused climate change.

What's next: This year looks milder than the last few years have been. It has a decent chance of at least making it into the top five, if not the top three warmest years, depending on how a transition to an El Niño plays out.

Then 2024 has a higher likelihood of setting a new record, scientists told Axios. This is in part because there is a lag in the atmosphere's response to El Niño.

Threat level: The U.K. Met Office is forecasting that global average temperatures in 2023 will be at least 1.2°C (2.16°F) above the pre-industrial average. Keep in mind that the Paris Agreement tries to limit warming to 1.5°C.

If warming exceeds this goal, studies show, the odds of potentially devastating climate change consequences will increase, such as greater melting of the polar ice sheets and the loss of tropical coral reefs.

Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, said 2023 looks warmer than the past few years, but pinpointing exactly how much is difficult at this point.

"Given lags in the surface temperature response a transition to El Niño conditions in the latter half of 2023 would have more of an impact on 2024," he said via email.

Global warming is about to accelerate

Scientists expect global average temperatures to potentially set records in 2023 or 2024.

Animation showing the pace and severity of global warming.

Animation showing global average surface temperature departures from average vs. 1951-1980. Image: NASA GISS. 

Skiers on a slope with no natural snow in January in Bavaria. Photo: Michaela Rehle/Bloomberg via Getty Images

California may have had a brief respite from widespread flood watches on Thursday, but officials are warning that upcoming storms this weekend are expected to push into next week.

The big picture: Much of central and Southern California is enjoying a brief break from the deadly bouts of atmospheric river events that have sent rivers above flood stage, caused mudslides and debris flows, and killed at least 19 since late December. 

Around 20,000 people are without power while roughly 6,000 remain under an evacuation order, according to the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services.

FEMA Commissioner Deanne Criswell said at a news conference Friday afternoon that the storm system is still very dynamic and dangerous and encouraged California residents to prepare themselves for the next week.

What’s next: Another atmospheric river is affecting the northern part of the state today and will bring heavy rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest. 

By Saturday, a separate storm is forecast to strike hard-hit areas once again, including San Francisco and Sacramento, with at least a few more inches of rain. 

The San Francisco Bay area may see rain fall heavily but intermittently throughout the weekend. 

More moderate-to-heavy rain is forecast through midweek next week, all the way south to Los Angeles.

What they’re saying: “The storm door remains wide open,” the NWS Bay Area forecast office stated in an online discussion today.  

Key stat: So far during the onslaught of atmospheric river events, which studies show climate change is making more intense, the entire state has seen at least 400% to 600% of average rainfall for this time of year. 

Climate change is also accentuating hydrological whiplash events in an already variable state, research shows. 

By the numbers: Some locations in the Sierra Nevada Mountains have seen well over 100 inches of snow during this period, sending the statewide average snowpack to 226% of average for this time of year, and 102% of average compared to the typical seasonal peak on April 1. 

The most recent event alone, which finally ended yesterday, dumped its heaviest rains on south-facing mountain slopes in Southern California. 

A staggering 18.78 inches of rain fell in Ventura, 18.31 inches in Nordhoff Ridge and 17.17 inches in San Marcos Pass, per the NWS.

Yes, but: Though the next few storms may not be quite as strong as the most damaging atmospheric river events to date, any additional rain on top of saturated soils will cause additional flooding. 

The bottom line: California's flooding woes are far from over. 

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional developments. Axios' Shawna Chen contributed to this report.

The northern part of the state is getting hit Thursday, but the rest of California will see more flooding this weekend.

Flooding

A major storm system sweeping across the South on Thursday killed at least nine people (seven in Alabama, two in Georgia) as it unleashed a series of tornadoes, causing significant damage and leaving a trail of destruction behind.

The latest: The National Weather Service said Friday that damage resulting from a tornado rated "at least" EF3 — with winds between 136 and 165 mph — has been confirmed in Autauga County, Ala., where most of the deaths were reported.

An EF2 tornado with an estimated peak wind speed of 125 mph was confirmed in Winston County, Ala. EF2-level damage was also confirmed in Selma and Greensboro.

At least 45 possible tornadoes were reported across several Southern states, according to the NWS.

The severe weather has led to massive power outages, too. As of 12:15pm ET Friday, over 21,000 customers in Georgia and about 16,000 in Alabama were without power, according to utility tracker PowerOutage.us.

The big picture: Seven deaths were reported in Alabama after searchers in Autauga County found another body Friday morning after reporting six deaths Thursday evening, AP reports. County coroner Buster Barber told CNN authorities were "still searching for bodies." 

Two deaths were reported so far in Georgia. Butts County Coroner Lacey Prue said a tree fell on a vehicle during a severe storm in Jackson, Georgia, and killed a passenger inside, per AP. 

The local sheriff's office told Atlanta News First the passenger was a 6-year-old girl. The other death happened when a worker was killed responding the storm, per AP.

Up to 50 residences in the county were damaged or destroyed as a result of the tornado, per AP.

This region was in an "Enhanced" risk area for severe weather Thursday, or level 3 out of 5 on the Storm Prediction Center's risk scale.

By the numbers: Over 45 tornadoes had been reported, according to the National Weather Service's (NWS) Storm Prediction Center. More than 30 million people were at risk of thunderstorm winds.

Debris detected by radars was launched about 20,000 feet into the air.

A screenshot of storm damage at an Alabama police station.

Photo: Morgan County Sheriff's Office/Twitter

Of note: Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) declared a state of emergency for six counties on Thursday: Autauga, Chambers, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore and Tallapoosa.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency in response to the storms and tornadoes and tweeted that he had "ordered all relevant agencies to respond with an all-hands-on-deck approach to the affected communities."

State of play: Some of the worst damage occurred in Selma, where a large and violent tornado tore down power lines and trees, flipped over cars and demolished entire buildings, local officials said at a news conference Thursday evening.

"So far we’ve had no fatalities locally; we’ve had some injuries, but no fatalities," Selma Mayor James Perkins said. 

Perkins told WFSA that at least one person was believed to have been trapped in a building while possibly one other person was missing.

The city, a cornerstone of the civil rights movement, was enforcing a curfew Thursday night from dawn to dusk.

What they're saying: "I am sad to have learned that six Alabamians were lost to the storms that ravaged across our state," Ivey tweeted Thursday night. "My prayers are with their loved ones and communities. We are far too familiar with devastating weather, but our people are resilient."

Kemp responded to the child's death by tweeting, "Our entire family is heartbroken over this tragedy. As we continue to monitor state response to these storms, we are praying for this family as they mourn this terrible loss."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

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Tornadoes rip through South as deadly storms kill at least 9

The severe weather led to several deaths in Alabama and Georgia.

Satellite imagery showing a storm pattern that's turned into a tornado over the Balbour, Alabama area

Map showing a tornado touching down in Alabama. Image: National Weather Service

Tornadoes

The death toll from California's relentless stream of extreme storm systems rose to 18 Wednesday, as the state's National Guard joined the search for a missing 5-year-old boy who was swept away in floodwaters.

The big picture: The latest in the barrage of atmospheric river events that have been unleashing heavy rains and destructive winds across the state was taking aim at the Pacific Northwest Wednesday, as flooding concerns remained in the storm-battered Bay Area ahead of the next major downpour there later this week.

A screenshot of images of the California National Guard searching for the 5-year-old California boy missing since Monday after being swept away in floodwaters.

California National Guard members searching for Kyle Doan, 5, who was swept away in floodwaters near Paso Robles in central coastal California on Monday. Photo: California National Guard/Twitter

Authorities confirmed an 18th death from the storms on Wednesday after they found the body of a 43-year-old woman inside her submerged car in Forestville, the Sonoma County Sheriff's Office said.

Of note: Six atmospheric rivers had struck California since late last month and three more were expected over the next week, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday as he noted Californians were in the calm between the storms with "a few more difficult days ahead of us."

By the numbers: The storms that have forced thousands to evacuate and caused widespread destruction and power outages have dumped up to 20 inches of rain across California since the atmospheric river events began.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center said that as of Wednesday afternoon its offices in California had logged 955 reports of flooding, flash flooding or debris flow since Dec. 26 and over 10 feet of snow had been observed at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

Several cities had received more than half their annual normal precipitation in the past 16 days — including Oakland (69%), Santa Barbara (64%), Stockton (60%) and downtown San Francisco (59%).

A screenshot of an NWS tweet stating that since Dec. 26 "California averaged 8.61 inches of precipitation and the San Francisco-Oakland metropolitan statistical area averaged 13.34 inches"

Photo: National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center/Twitter

State of play: "The steady moist onshore flow and atmospheric river regime into the West Coast will continue on Thursday, especially in portions of saturated California," per the National Weather Service. "Heavy to excessive rainfall is expected from northern California to coastal areas of Oregon and Washington."

The threat of rain and flooding remained for the northern Bay Area into early Thursday, according to the local NWS office.

"Hydro concerns will continue," it added, noting more rain was expected for the Bay Area Friday into the weekend. 

Meanwhile, an estimated 37,546 customers were without power in California early Thursday.

Context: Atmospheric river events are potent because narrow currents in the air can carry vast amounts of water vapor thousands of miles.

Axios' Andrew Freedman notes that climate change is adding even more moisture to atmospheric rivers — which enables them to dump higher rain and snow totals.

California is still in a historic, long-term drought, and this extreme weather event underscores what studies had shown — that climate change would bring dramatic swings from extremely dry to very wet conditions, and back again.

The death toll from California's relentless stream of extreme storm systems rose to 18 today.

In an aerial view, homes are seen surrounded by floodwaters on January 11, 2023 in Planada, California.

Floodwaters surround homes in Planada, California, on Wednesday. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Energy in Earth's oceans at 0-2,000 meters

Data: John Abraham, University of St. Thomas; Chart: Axios Visuals 

Ocean heat content hits record high, a sign of global warming

The trend is altering the water cycle in ways that lead to extreme weather events.

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