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Expert Voices

Saudi nuclear deal presents diplomatic dilemma for U.S.

Rick Perry with Saudi Energy Minister Khaled al-Falih
Secretary Perry with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih in Riyadh. Photo: Fayz Nureldine/AFP via Getty Images

When Saudi Arabia opened the bid for construction of its first nuclear power plant, the U.S.–based manufacturer Westinghouse was eager to beat out Russia’s Rosatom and China's National Nuclear Corporation for the deal. Last week Energy Secretary Rick Perry traveled to London to discuss the potential for a nuclear cooperation agreement with senior Saudi officials.

Why it matters: In order to secure the deal, the Trump administration may relax the U.S.’s “gold standard” nonproliferation guidelines — conditions that would prohibit Saudi Arabia from enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel. In that case, neither outcome of the bidding process would come without downsides.

The big picture:

  • Enriching and reprocessing capabilities make it easy to exploit peaceful nuclear activities to develop a clandestine weapons program. Waiving the nonproliferation standard would open a pathway for Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear weapons as tensions with its regional rival, Iran, continue to escalate.
  • Yet if the U.S. insists on the gold standard as a condition for this deal, Saudi Arabia could turn to Russia or China, costing the U.S. an important economic and diplomatic foothold in the region.

The bottom line: Whichever course the administration pursues, the Saudi nuclear deal will carry a steep political cost, either compromising the United States' strong record on nonproliferation or allowing its leadership in the international nuclear industry to slip even further.

Jackie Kempfer is a nuclear security research associate with the Promoting Security and Prosperity Initiative at the Stimson Center.

Zachary Basu 9 hours ago
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What to watch for in Egypt's sham election

Sisi billboard
A billboard in Cairo voicing support for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in the upcoming election. Photo by KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images.

Egyptians will vote March 26-28 in a presidential election that is sure to see incumbent strongman Abdel Fattah el-Sisi handily defeat Mousa Mostafa Mousa — the sole challenger who hasn't been jailed or intimidated into dropping out.

The backdrop: Sisi, the former minister of defense and commander-in-chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces, led a military coup to topple President Mohamed Morsi in 2013. He formally came to power in 2014 after winning 96% of the vote in the presidential election, but has since seen his popularity wane under deteriorating economic conditions and an oppressive human rights record.

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Where Trump's steel and aluminum trade war will hit first

Note: Includes only products under the "Iron & Steel & Ferroalloy" and "Alumina & Aluminum & Processing" NAICS commodity classifications. Data: Census Bureau; Chart: Chris Canipe and Lazaro Gamio / Axios

The Trump administration has begun imposing tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum, but several countries are exempted temporarily until May 1, as shown in the chart above. The administration may still apply quotas on exempted countries to prevent a flood of foreign steel and aluminum in the U.S. market, per the White House.

Why it matters: After railroading past a number of his advisors, Trump announced the tariffs on imports of steel (at 25%) and aluminum (at 10%) earlier this month, citing national security concerns. But with the exemption noted above, the tariffs won't carry major bite, at least to start.