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Photo: David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

The Trump administration's final rules weakening Obama-era vehicle mileage and emissions standards through the mid-2020s include some surprising safety claims.

Driving the news: In what is shaping up to be a major legal battle with environmentalists, the federal government said it will require 1.5% annual increases in fuel efficiency through 2026 — far weaker than the 5% increases under the previous rules that the industry said it couldn't meet.

  • Instead of Obama's requirement for a fleetwide average of 46.7 miles per gallon, vehicle fleets will average 40.4 miles per gallon by 2026, per Reuters.
  • The new rules will save automakers upward of $100 billion in compliance costs.

Context: It's important to note that conditions have changed dramatically since Obama crafted the original rules in 2012.

  • Consumers are buying many more trucks and SUVs than the Obama rules had anticipated, while fuel prices are much lower.
  • Hence, automakers asked the Trump administration to reconsider the standards.

What they're saying: The government claims that by making newer, safer, and cleaner vehicles more affordable for American families, more lives will be saved and more jobs will be created.

  • While it admits consumers will pay about $1,000 more in fuel costs over the life of their vehicle, cars will be cheaper — about $1,000, conveniently, the administration says — without the huge regulatory burden on carmakers.
  • Overall, the total cost of ownership over the vehicle's life will be $1,400 lower, the administration claims.

Details:

  • The administration argues cars will be safer because automakers won't be pressured to reduce vehicle weight and because people will be able to afford newer vehicles, which have more safety features.
  • The change in CO2 standards will result in 3,269 fewer fatalities, the analysis shows.

But, as Reuters' David Shepardson points out on Twitter, most of the safety gains from the new rule are not from improved vehicles but from Americans driving less.

  • With a projected 605 billion fewer miles traveled under the new rule, there will be 2,584 fewer highway fatalities.
  • Less driving accounts for 80% of the lives saved.
  • Less driving also means cars won't need to be replaced as often, undermining the government's argument.

My thought bubble: I'm a journalist, not a mathematician. But something doesn't add up.

Go deeper: Battle lines are drawn over Trump's weakening of emissions rules

Go deeper

2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Senate Democrats target billionaires

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

After failing to get a deal on other planned tax increases, key Senate Democrats are pivoting to a billionaires' income tax to pay for President Biden's social spending.

The big picture: No advanced economy has attempted anything similar on such a scale.

Anti-abortion activists' Supreme Court dreams are coming true

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela. Photos: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

This is the moment the conservative legal movement has been building toward for decades: The solidly conservative Supreme Court is about to hear two major abortion cases within a month of each other.

Why it matters: All of this is likely to end with significant new restrictions on abortion and a clear path for Republican-led states to win the next big abortion cases, too — the culmination of a long and bitter fight for control of the judiciary.

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
6 hours ago - Economy & Business

Trump's volatile return to the stock market

Expand chart
Data: YCharts; Chart: Axios Visuals 

Donald Trump this week became both a meme stock and a social-media entrepreneur at the same time, by announcing that a new company called Trump Media & Technology Group was going to merge with an existing company listed on the stock market.

Why it matters: The medium-term promise of Trump's media company is that it will replace Twitter for anybody wanting to keep track of Trump's messages. The short-term promise is that it can be a hot new speculative vehicle for people wanting to get rich quick in the stock market.

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