A new report from the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie predicts that increasing vehicle efficiency and the rise of electric cars will lead global gasoline demand to peak by 2030.
Data: Wood Mackenzie Macro Oils Service; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios
Big picture: "Although oil demand grows to 2035 on aggregate, it is minimal compared with what we have seen over the past twenty years. The prospect of peak oil demand is very real," the report states.
It's a double whammy for gasoline: in the next decade it's a fuel efficiency story. Post-2025, it's an EV story, as the ramp up in electric vehicle penetration displaces significant volumes of gasoline demand," they note.
However, overall global crude oil demand growth — driven by petrochemical needs — is not expected to peak until 2035 at the earliest, but will have slowed way down compared to prior decades.
"The oil industry is right to be concerned and should start to plan for the future," it says.