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As White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow projected a sustainable "boom" in the U.S. economy this summer, sales in the recreational-vehicle industry have been trending downward, signaling possible economic turmoil to come, Bloomberg writes.

Why it matters: The last 3 recessions (which began in July 1990, March 2001 and December 2007) were all foreshadowed by slumps in RV manufacturers’ shipments. While, as Bloomberg writes, "that’s not a big sample size, and there were modest RV-shipment dips in the mid-1980s and mid-1990s that turned out not to precede recessions," the drop-off in RV purchases could be a sign of consumers growing less optimistic about their financial futures.

Background: In June 2018, RV manufacturers shipped 11.4% fewer trailers and vehicles than in the year prior. And aside from a slight rebound this July, shipments have continued to dip.

Reality check: The Wall Street Journal reports that many manufacturers believe the slump is a result of overproduction after a boost in demand in 2017 that didn't continue into the following year.

    • Bloomberg adds: "RV shipments by manufacturers aren’t the same thing as RV sales, and a decline in the former might represent overproduction by manufacturers or over-ordering by dealers rather than an actual drop in consumer demand."

Between the lines: The sales slowdown also comes as manufacturers hiked prices to counterbalance increased production costs amid the U.S.-China trade war.

  • Estimates say more than 500 RV-related goods could be affected by increased tariffs, including aluminum and steel, along with amenities such as toilet seat covers and hides for leather furniture.

Our thought bubble via Axios' Felix Salmon: RV shipments are slipping from "off the charts great" to merely "very strong." Directionally, that's bad, but we're still in a fundamentally healthy economy.

Go deeper: The synchronized global slump

Go deeper

Americans reflect on Independence Day amid racism reckoning

A Black Lives Matter banner and a United States flag on the facade of the U.S. embassy building in Seoul, South Korea. Photo: Simon Shin/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

America's leaders are rethinking how they view Independence Day, as the country reckons with the historic, unequal treatment of people of color during a pandemic which has disproportionately affected nonwhite Americans.

Why it matters: The country’s legacy of racism has come into sharp focus in the weeks of protests following the death of George Floyd while in Minneapolis police custody. From Confederate statues to Mount Rushmore, Americans are reexamining the symbols and traditions they elevate and the history behind them.

Updated 9 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 11,031,905 — Total deaths: 523,777 — Total recoveries — 5,834,337Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 2,788,395 — Total deaths: 129,306 — Total recoveries: 790,404 — Total tested: 34,213,497Map.
  3. States: ICU beds in Arizona's hot spot reach near capacity.
  4. Public health: The states where face coverings are mandatory Fauci says it has been a "very disturbing week" for the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S.
  5. Economy: The economy may recover just quickly enough to kill political interest in more stimulus.
11 hours ago - Sports

Washington Redskins to review team name amid public pressure

Photo: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

The Washington Redskins have announced they will be conducting a review of the team's name after mounting pressure from the public and corporate sponsors.

Why it matters: This review is the first formal step the Redskins are taking since the debate surrounding the name first began. It comes after weeks of discussions between the team and the NFL, the team said.