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Photo: Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

As White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow projected a sustainable "boom" in the U.S. economy this summer, sales in the recreational-vehicle industry have been trending downward, signaling possible economic turmoil to come, Bloomberg writes.

Why it matters: The last 3 recessions (which began in July 1990, March 2001 and December 2007) were all foreshadowed by slumps in RV manufacturers’ shipments. While, as Bloomberg writes, "that’s not a big sample size, and there were modest RV-shipment dips in the mid-1980s and mid-1990s that turned out not to precede recessions," the drop-off in RV purchases could be a sign of consumers growing less optimistic about their financial futures.

Background: In June 2018, RV manufacturers shipped 11.4% fewer trailers and vehicles than in the year prior. And aside from a slight rebound this July, shipments have continued to dip.

Reality check: The Wall Street Journal reports that many manufacturers believe the slump is a result of overproduction after a boost in demand in 2017 that didn't continue into the following year.

    • Bloomberg adds: "RV shipments by manufacturers aren’t the same thing as RV sales, and a decline in the former might represent overproduction by manufacturers or over-ordering by dealers rather than an actual drop in consumer demand."

Between the lines: The sales slowdown also comes as manufacturers hiked prices to counterbalance increased production costs amid the U.S.-China trade war.

  • Estimates say more than 500 RV-related goods could be affected by increased tariffs, including aluminum and steel, along with amenities such as toilet seat covers and hides for leather furniture.

Our thought bubble via Axios' Felix Salmon: RV shipments are slipping from "off the charts great" to merely "very strong." Directionally, that's bad, but we're still in a fundamentally healthy economy.

Go deeper: The synchronized global slump

Go deeper

Dominion sends cease and desist letter to My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell

Photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

Dominion Voting Systems on Monday sent a cease and desist letter to My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell over his spread of misinformation related to the 2020 election.

Why it matters: Trump and several of his allies have pushed false conspiracy theories about the company, leading Dominion to take legal action. It's suing pro-Trump lawyer Sidney Powell for defamation and $1.3 billion in damages, and a Dominion employee has sued Trump himself, OANN and Newsmax.

Off the Rails

Episode 5: The secret CIA plan

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer, Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. This Axios series takes you inside the collapse of a president.

Episode 5: Trump vs. Gina — The president becomes increasingly rash and devises a plan to tamper with the nation's intelligence command.

In his final weeks in office, after losing the election to Joe Biden, President Donald Trump embarked on a vengeful exit strategy that included a hasty and ill-thought-out plan to jam up CIA Director Gina Haspel by firing her top deputy and replacing him with a protege of Republican Congressman Devin Nunes.

Updated 5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Health: CDC director defends agency's response to pandemic — CDC warns highly transmissible coronavirus variant could become dominant in U.S. in March.
  2. Politics: Empire State Building among hundreds to light up in Biden inauguration coronavirus tribute.
  3. Vaccine: Fauci: 100 million doses in 100 days is "absolutely" doable.
  4. Economy: Unemployment filings explode again.
  5. Tech: Kids' screen time sees a big increase.