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The latest real-time Fed estimates of U.S. GDP from the New York and Atlanta Fed "nowcasting" models both show the economy’s momentum has slowed over the summer, but diverge widely.

By the numbers: The Atlanta Fed's model has jumped thanks largely to better-than-expected readings on Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and services sector and government GDP and employment data.

  • The New York Fed's model put less emphasis on the ISM surveys, which track sentiment rather than hard numbers.
  • The New York Fed's forecast also puts greater emphasis on import and export data, which is particularly negative for the U.S. as it has had to import an increasing amount of goods from China, where most of the medical equipment needed to deal with the coronavirus pandemic is made.

The big picture: After GDP declined by 32% in the second quarter, the most in history, growth is expected to bounce back strongly in the third.

Between the lines: The Atlanta Fed notes that a collection of forecasts from "blue chip" economists estimates Q3 GDP at just over 20%.

Go deeper

Janet Yellen is back

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Hannelore Foerster/Getty Images

A face familiar to Wall Street is back as a central player that this time will need to steer the country out of a deep economic crisis.

Driving the news: President-elect Joe Biden is preparing to nominate former Fed chair Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary.

USAID chief tests positive for coronavirus

An Air Force cargo jet delivers USAID supplies to Russia earlier this year. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/TASS via Getty Images

The acting administrator of the United States Agency for International Development informed senior staff Wednesday he has tested positive for coronavirus, two sources familiar with the call tell Axios.

Why it matters: John Barsa, who staffers say rarely wears a mask in their office, is the latest in a series of senior administration officials to contract the virus. His positive diagnosis comes amid broader turmoil at the agency following the election.

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
3 hours ago - Health

COVID-19 shows a bright future for vaccines

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Promising results from COVID-19 vaccine trials offer hope not just that the pandemic could be ended sooner than expected, but that medicine itself may have a powerful new weapon.

Why it matters: Vaccines are, in the words of one expert, "the single most life-saving innovation ever," but progress had slowed in recent years. New gene-based technology that sped the arrival of the COVID vaccine will boost the overall field, and could even extend to mass killers like cancer.

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