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The latest real-time Fed estimates of U.S. GDP from the New York and Atlanta Fed "nowcasting" models both show the economy’s momentum has slowed over the summer, but diverge widely.

By the numbers: The Atlanta Fed's model has jumped thanks largely to better-than-expected readings on Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and services sector and government GDP and employment data.

  • The New York Fed's model put less emphasis on the ISM surveys, which track sentiment rather than hard numbers.
  • The New York Fed's forecast also puts greater emphasis on import and export data, which is particularly negative for the U.S. as it has had to import an increasing amount of goods from China, where most of the medical equipment needed to deal with the coronavirus pandemic is made.

The big picture: After GDP declined by 32% in the second quarter, the most in history, growth is expected to bounce back strongly in the third.

Between the lines: The Atlanta Fed notes that a collection of forecasts from "blue chip" economists estimates Q3 GDP at just over 20%.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Updated Dec 16, 2020 - Economy & Business

Fed pledges to continue buying bonds until economy makes "substantial" progress

Fed chair Jerome Powell. Photo: Susan Walsh-Pool/Getty Images

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 0%–0.25% at its latest policy meeting, but changed its statement to include a promise to continue to buy at least $120 billion of bonds each month "until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals."

Why it matters: Fed chair Jerome Powell consistently stressed during his press conference that the Fed was nowhere close to reducing its massive bond-buying program, even though its evaluation of the economy had improved and would continue to provide monetary policy support.

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
2 hours ago - Economy & Business

Investors increase their exuberance

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

U.S. stocks jumped across the board on Monday and the S&P 500 had its best day since June 5, as the bulls stepped in and bought the dips in stock prices following last week's minor selloff.

Why it matters: While some have worried rising U.S. interest rates would dampen investor exuberance over the expected pickup in economic growth thanks to increasing vaccine numbers and big fiscal spending hopes, Monday showed investors still like risk assets. A lot.

4 hours ago - World

China and Russia vaccinate the world — for now

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

While the U.S. and Europe focus on vaccinating their own populations, China and Russia are sending millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses to countries around the world.

Why it matters: China's double success in controlling its domestic outbreak and producing several viable vaccines has allowed it to focus on providing doses abroad — an effort that could help to save lives across several continents.

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