Nov 5, 2018

1. Preview: The day after tomorrow

You already know what you think about the midterms, or are smarter than to predict. So here's a cheat sheet for what comes next.

The state of play for President Trump's next 30ish hours: Lose as expected, and he'd face a narrowly controlled Democratic House and a friendly Republican Senate with the ability to keep confirming judges. Lose by a landslide, and the House would get more hostile, and even the Senate would be at risk. But win by any margin, and he could get even more aggressive on tax cuts, health care and immigration, with only congressional fears of 2020 in the way.

Between the lines... Assuming the expected Democratic House and Republican Senate, here's how the AP sees it going from investors' point of view:

  • “Divided government equals gridlock,” said Terry Haines, head of U.S. policy and political analysis at Evercore ISI. “Gridlock is a good thing for markets because markets like certainty.”
  • "Agreement on an infrastructure bill could give a boost to construction equipment and transportation companies. And legislation to control drug pricing would likely be a drag on pharmaceutical company stocks."
  • "A Democrat-led House could also lead to heightened oversight and investigations of big banks and Wall Street firms, which could weigh on financial sector stocks."
  • "The possibility of a government shutdown also increases with a divided Congress... The S&P 500 slumped nearly 20 percent during the government shutdown that occurred during Congress’ 2011 debt ceiling impasse."

What's next, if history holds: "The S&P 500 has generated an average price return of 16.7 percent in the 12 months after each of the midterm elections going back to 1946, according to CFRA. That’s 18 elections, many of which ended up shuffling the balance of power in Congress."

Go deeper: Axios' Dan Primack and Alexi McCammond set the stage for tomorrow's midterms on the Pro Rata podcast.

Go deeper

Trump forces fateful choices on Twitter and Facebook

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President Trump's war with Twitter is confronting social media platforms with a hard dilemma: whether to take fuller responsibility for what people say on their services, or to step back and assume a more quasi-governmental role.

The big picture: Facebook is trying to be more like a government committing to impartiality and protecting free speech and building mechanisms for arbitration. Twitter, pushed by Trump's inflammatory messages, is opting to more aggressively enforce conduct rules on its private property, like a mall owner enforcing rules inside the gates.

Updated 10 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 1 p.m. ET: 5,851,494 — Total deaths: 362,238 — Total recoveries — 2,445,181Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 1 p.m. ET: 1,729,185 — Total deaths: 101,706 — Total recoveries: 399,991 — Total tested: 15,646,041Map.
  3. 2020: North Carolina asks RNC if convention will honor Trump's wish for no masks or social distancing.
  4. Public health: Hydroxychloroquine prescription fills exploded in March —How the U.S. might distribute a vaccine.
  5. Transportation: National mobility keeps rising as more states reopen economies.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Saying goodbye to U.S. megacities.

Obama on George Floyd's death: "This shouldn't be 'normal'"

Photo: Getty Images/Getty Images for EIF & XQ

Former President Obama said in a statement Friday that the death of George Floyd, an unarmed black man who was killed by a white Minneapolis police officer, "shouldn't be 'normal' in 2020 America."

What he's saying: "[W]e have to remember that for millions of Americans being treated differently on account of race is tragically, painfully, maddeningly 'normal' — whether it’s while dealing with the health care system, or interacting with the criminal justice system, or jogging down the street, or watching birds in a park."