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You already know what you think about the midterms, or are smarter than to predict. So here's a cheat sheet for what comes next.

The state of play for President Trump's next 30ish hours: Lose as expected, and he'd face a narrowly controlled Democratic House and a friendly Republican Senate with the ability to keep confirming judges. Lose by a landslide, and the House would get more hostile, and even the Senate would be at risk. But win by any margin, and he could get even more aggressive on tax cuts, health care and immigration, with only congressional fears of 2020 in the way.

Between the lines... Assuming the expected Democratic House and Republican Senate, here's how the AP sees it going from investors' point of view:

  • “Divided government equals gridlock,” said Terry Haines, head of U.S. policy and political analysis at Evercore ISI. “Gridlock is a good thing for markets because markets like certainty.”
  • "Agreement on an infrastructure bill could give a boost to construction equipment and transportation companies. And legislation to control drug pricing would likely be a drag on pharmaceutical company stocks."
  • "A Democrat-led House could also lead to heightened oversight and investigations of big banks and Wall Street firms, which could weigh on financial sector stocks."
  • "The possibility of a government shutdown also increases with a divided Congress... The S&P 500 slumped nearly 20 percent during the government shutdown that occurred during Congress’ 2011 debt ceiling impasse."

What's next, if history holds: "The S&P 500 has generated an average price return of 16.7 percent in the 12 months after each of the midterm elections going back to 1946, according to CFRA. That’s 18 elections, many of which ended up shuffling the balance of power in Congress."

Go deeper: Axios' Dan Primack and Alexi McCammond set the stage for tomorrow's midterms on the Pro Rata podcast.

Go deeper

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Democrats' billionaires tax explained

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

There is now legislative language behind the push to tax American billionaires on unrealized capital gains, as Sen. Ron Wyden last night released his 107-page plan.

Why it matters: This would be a sea change in U.S. tax policy, which has only applied to realized gains (otherwise known as income).

4 hours ago - World

Scoop: Blinken protests Israel settlements approval in "tense" phone call

Benny Gantz (L) and Tony Blinken. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty

Secretary of State Tony Blinken protested the decision to approve 3,000 new housing units in Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank during a tense phone call on Tuesday with Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, three Israeli officials tell me.

Why it matters: This is the first time new construction in the settlements has been approved since President Biden assumed office, and the Biden administration had been privately pressing the Israeli government not to proceed.

The startup that wants to disrupt big internet providers

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios

A new startup backed by funding from AOL founder Steve Case and Laurene Powell Jobs wants to break up broadband monopolies across the country.

Why it matters: Internet access has been crucial during the pandemic, but it's not ubiquitous, and it can be both slow and unaffordable in swaths of the country.