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Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

A new report explores how emerging work patterns created under the pandemic's strain may create important long-term shifts in energy use, but not in ways that significantly change emissions.

Driving the news: The latest multidecade energy outlook from the consultancy DNV provides a look at some new normals around remote labor and virtual services.

  • "The consolidation of using remote communication and digital tools has permanently affected our ways of working and service provision, reducing transport needs in all sectors," they write.

How it works: They see a long-term 5% reduction in workspace demand in developed regions including China, and half that in developing economies.

  • However, they estimate a "small increase" in private cars instead of public transit, and growing demand for suburban and rural homes "will counterbalance the effect of lower frequency of office working, leaving overall car use unchanged."
  • "Residential energy demand in developed regions will thus increase by 4%, half of which arises from bigger dwelling sizes and half from increased requirements for heating and cooling."

The intrigue: The report also projects that new habits will crimp air travel that was initially cut in half by COVID.

  • But the general trend will still be sharply upward, even with long-term business travel 20% lower than under their pre-pandemic forecast.
  • "By 2050, we will see annual global passenger flights growing 130% from 4.4 billion flights in 2019 to 10.2 billion flights in 2050," they note.

Go deeper

Updated Nov 6, 2021 - Energy & Environment

What to know about COP26 in Glasgow

Joe Biden speaks at COP26 on Nov. 1. Photo: Andy Buchanan - Pool/Getty Images

More than 100 world leaders — as well as thousands of diplomats and business leaders — converged on Glasgow, Scotland, on Oct. 31 to try to set new emissions reduction goals at the COP26 climate summit.

The latest: President Biden on Tuesday said that China made a "big mistake" by not showing up to the UN climate summit, adding that Beijing has "lost an ability to influence" other countries as a result.

Updated 5 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

  1. Health: Contact tracing fizzles across America — New clues emerge on long COVID — Omicron is finally burning out — It's very difficult to get access to antiviral COVID treatments — Axios-Ipsos poll: Omicron's big numbersAnother wave of death — FDA limits use of Regeneron and Lilly antibody treatments.
  2. Vaccines: Pfizer begins clinical trial for Omicron-specific vaccine — The shifting definition of fully vaccinated.
  3. Politics: Virginia AG says public colleges can't mandate COVID vaccines —Alaska governor joins Texas lawsuit over National Guard vaccine mandate — Navy discharges 45 sailors for refusing vaccine — Spotify to remove Neil Young's music after his Joe Rogan ultimatum — White House: 60M households have ordered free COVID-19 rapid tests.
  4. World: U.K. to lift travel testing requirement for fully vaccinated — Beijing Olympic Committee lowers testing threshold ahead of Games.
  5. Variant tracker
3 hours ago - World

Biden will move U.S. troops to Eastern Europe "in the near term"

President Biden boards Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews on Jan. 28. Photo: SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden said on Friday he plans to move U.S. troops to Eastern European and NATO countries “in the near term.”

Driving the news: “Not too many” U.S. troops, Biden added in remarks to reporters at Joint Base Andrew upon returning from a trip to Pennsylvania.