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House members across the ideological spectrum are getting tired of focusing almost entirely on legislation whose only role is to fire up the base.

Why it matters: Those "messaging bills" constitute much of what the House Republican majority has focused on over the last six months — and there's no sign GOP leaders intend to change course.

"This is my sixth term, so I've seen messaging bills. It's part of the game. Usually it's earlier — now we're in June," said Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.).

Driving the news: The House last week passed several GOP bills that President Biden has already promised to veto, including legislation prohibiting the federal government from banning gas stoves and requiring congressional approval for major new regulations.

"When we pass things around here that are messaging bills that don’t do anything, is it really a loss that we aren’t passing anything?" Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), the chair of the right-wing Freedom Caucus, told reporters.

What they're saying: Centrists feel similarly. 

"At some point, if all we can do is pass messaging bills through our caucus that have no chance of light of day, of actually becoming law, then there will be some, you know, bipartisan immigration efforts," said Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.).

"We should be working more on the House side to build legislation that can actually pass the Senate too," said Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), vice chair of the Republican Governance Group.

"I think most members are frustrated, on both sides," said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio). "And I know from conversations with the speaker and others ... that there is a desire to start getting some bipartisan wins."

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) told Axios: "I know that for folks on both sides of the aisle, in those 30-35 seats that are swing districts, those lawmakers, myself included, we want to be effective."

Zoom in: In addition to immigration, moderate members who spoke to Axios floated cybersecurity, energy permitting reform, cryptocurrency, China, mental health and opioids as other areas of potential bipartisan dealmaking.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), the co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus, pointed to his group's proposed fiscal commission as another example.

"I believe in two-party solutions. That's ... what America wants. That's what I think we should be doing," Fitzpatrick said. 

Reality check: With a narrow majority and a right flank already raging against his last bipartisan deal, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has little incentive to work with Democrats on anything of significance.

Peters said he believes the speaker "personally is interested in bipartisan progress," but "has a group that's larger than his majority who are not so committed to that."

"Speaker Pelosi, she had some hard times getting stuff to the floor too," he said. "When you have a small majority, there are limits to what you can do."

By the numbers: Just six bills have become law in the 118th Congress as of June 15, according to data from Quorum.

Bills that became law by June 15th during the first year of a Congressional session

Data: Quorum; Chart: Kira Wang/Axios Visuals

The other side: "There's purpose in passing bills that may not have support in the other chamber or the White House," said Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.). 

"One is building momentum for the future, one is putting people on the record. ... Also, [it's helpful] just in terms of the policy development process," Barr said.

Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) argued it's not an either-or: "It's important ... we continue to not only adopt legislation, but make clear we are speaking on behalf of the people we represent."

The bottom line: It’s not just Republican leaders pursuing messaging legislation. Democrats have spent much of their energy pushing discharge petitions to force votes on their preferred bills.

That has included a clean debt ceiling increase, two background check bills and an assault weapons ban. This week, they plan to push another petition on a bill to codify abortion access.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) argued that the onus of passing bipartisan legislation rests at least in part “on our Democrat colleagues.”

"I know they want to do the right thing. I know. But unfortunately a lot of them get caught up in politics," he said. "That’s on both sides."

background check bills and an assault weapons ban

House GOP messaging bills test members' patience

“It's part of the game. Usually it's earlier – now we're in June.”

Illustration of a hand in a suit holding a paper airplane legislative bill

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President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

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As they make their opening bids for tax reform this congressional session, House and Senate tax writers are staking out maximalist positions. They're also clearly leaving space to cut a deal.

Why it matters: A bipartisan tax negotiation will test a divided Congress’ ability to move substantive legislation in a post-debt deal world. It will also be a venue for both parties to signal their priorities to their bases and the general public ahead of the election.

Driving the news: On Tuesday, the House Ways and Means Committee, led by Jason Smith (R-Mo.), passed legislation that would expand the standard deduction and allow businesses to write off more of their research and development expenses as well as their capital expenditures.

"With this bill, we make a historic investment in the working Americans and families that are the backbone of our great nation," Smith said.

The other side: The White House was quick to blast the GOP proposal.

"The President believes that any bill that cuts taxes for large corporations must also cut taxes for working people and families with children," National Economic Council director Lael Brainard wrote in a memo earlier this week.

The big picture: The coalition that would support a tax package would look similar to the one behind the debt ceiling deal, which passed with healthy majorities in both chambers.

Republicans want to seize on the broad consensus that Congress needs to restore the R&D expensing that expired in 2021. They also have other cuts, which would cost an estimated $240 billion, and want to claw back some $216 billion from Biden's green energy tax breaks.

Democrats are looking for a way to make some form of the enhanced child tax credit — which was included in Biden’s 2020 stimulus for one year — permanent.

An 11th-hour effort to find a compromise late last year faltered.

What to watch: "I assume that the House will pass their bill on a wholly partisan line,” said Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden. "I hope that as we go further in the year we can get a balanced package."

“There's a growing sense on both sides of the aisle that we've got to get it done,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). "Obviously it gets into the question of paying for it and the framework that was set by the debt ceiling vote."

Between the lines: There’s an important difference between the debt ceiling deal and any potential tax package.

The first had to be addressed; the second is more optional.

What they're saying: “Buried in all the noise of the Ways and Means markup was the distinct signal of a willingness to find a way forward on a year-end [Tax Cuts and Jobs Act] and child tax credit extenders package," said Rohit Kumar, co-leader of PwC's national tax office.

"The parameters for a deal are there and the resolution of the debt limit should clear the way for talks to start in earnest.”

“I don’t specifically know what the outline of a deal may be,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). "But I see an environment where the odds that a deal could move forward are better than it's been in several years.”

"I'm glad to hear the conversations being talked about right now are in June rather than in late December,” said Sen. Jim Lankford (R-Okla.)

What we’re watching: The political imperative to pass a tax package will be more acute when parts of former President Trump’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act, including lower personal rates and benefits for small businesses, expire in 2025.

But, but, but: Some Democratic senators are skeptical of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) ability to move any substantive legislation through the House after conservatives essentially paralyzed floor proceedings last week.

Under pressure from conservatives, he agreed to pass funding bills at 2022 levels, far below what was agreed to in the deal.

"That is uncharted territory," said Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.)

And Wyden will demand that his own priorities, like the child tax credit, are addressed. "We're going to insist on an approach that is proportional," he said.

Capitol Hill's opening tax bids leave room for potential deal

""The parameters for a deal are there..."

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Taxes

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

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After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

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Wells Fargo and the Latino civil rights group UnidosUS are unveiling a multimillion-dollar plan to help four million Latinos buy homes by 2030.

Driving the news: Both will announce Wednesday they are kicking in $10 million each as part of a $100 million fundraising effort aimed at changing federal and local policies to make loans more accessible and provide counseling for Latinos seeking to become homeowners.

The big picture: The homeownership rate among Latinos reached 49.7% in the first quarter of 2023 but is about 25 percentage points lower than that of non-Hispanic white Americans, according to U.S. Census data. The rate had hit above 51% before the pandemic took off.

Advocates say that low rate is a warning sign for the nation's financial future because the Latino population in the U.S. is projected to grow by 12 million every decade until 2060.

Zoom in: The $20 million kickstart funding will launch an initiative called HOME (Home Ownership Means Equity) to tackle the challenges many Latinos face in buying homes, UnidosUS and Wells Fargo will announce.

The program seeks to create access to credit by pushing new lending rules who might not qualify currently. 

It will try to increase the housing supply by pressing for increased housing density through zoning reforms. 

The initiative also plans to increase the number of Spanish-speaking lenders, offer workshops on improving credit and provide downpayment assistance.

The HOME program's first cities include Chicago, Phoenix, Houston; Stockton, Calif., and Orlando, Fla. 

Those communities have large Latino populations and affordable housing compared to other cities.

What they're saying: "We've seen inequitable public policies and business practices that have really created significant (housing) barriers for our community," Janet Murguía, president and CEO of UnidosUS, told Axios.

Murguía said those barriers include limited access to financial education, and predatory lending and systemic roadblocks for first-time buyers. 

"The biggest thing that's at stake... it's being able to level the playing field," Kristy Fercho, head of Diverse Segments/Representation/Inclusion at Wells Fargo, told Axios.

Fercho said Wells Fargo wants to understand barriers impacting homeownership for Latinos and is dedicated to pushing for reforms. 

The intrigue: The Latino housing plan is drawing support from some U.S. senators.

"Breaking down barriers, increasing Latino leadership, and expanding opportunities will help create millions of new Latino homeowners over the next decade. Congress must play a leading role in making homeownership a reality," U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján, (D-N.M.) told Axios.

Murguía, who will provide more details at a press conference later Wednesday, said the kickstart funding is a call to action to other lending institutions to help raise another $80 million.

Zoom out: A lack of retirement accounts, rising interest rates and a low housing supply pose risks to the building of long-term Latino wealth in the U.S., according to a 2022 report by The Hispanic Wealth Project.

Only 25.5% of Latinos invest in retirement accounts, and their lack of diverse assets has worsened in recent years, the report found.

Yes, but: In 2020, Latinos spent $1.84 trillion, representing a consumption market larger than the economies of Canada or South Korea, a 2022 report released by the nonprofit Latino Donor Collaborative found.

Of note: Wells Fargo recently donated $25 million to UnidosUS and its affiliates for other programs. It says $10 million of that funding will go to the HOME program.

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Wells Fargo, rights group launch Latino homeownership plan

Latinos' ownership rate is about 25 percentage points lower than non-Hispanic white Americans.

Two-flat apartment buildings in the Logan Square neighborhood of Chicago.

Two-flat apartment buildings in the Logan Square neighborhood of Chicago. Photo: Taylor Glascock/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Hispanic and Latino Americans

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned the country’s biggest bankers that a potential debt ceiling default will have repercussions beyond the financial system and insisted that the early June X-Date is real, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The Biden administration is sounding the alarm in public and in private about the consequences of default, and the dangers in trying to cut a deal at the last moment.

Yellen’s frank talk with bankers, like JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, are part of a broader effort by top Biden officials to enlist the business community to pressure congressional Republicans to raise the country’s $31.6 trillion debt ceiling before June 1.

While some Republican senators have questioned that date, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has seized it as a way to add urgency to negotiations. 

The intrigue: The official readout of Yellen's meeting from the Treasury department included many of her previous warnings about the debt ceiling.

But it didn't mention at least two of her closed-door comments: that private forecasters have largely confirmed her early June estimates for when the U.S. will run out of money and that borrowing costs are already getting higher.

Driving the news: Yellen made her remarks in a closed-door meeting at the Bank Policy Institute, an industry association that advocates for the country’s largest lenders, in Washington on Thursday, according to a person in the room.

With talks proceeding between President Biden’s team and Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), a key ally of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif), some progressive lawmakers are sounding the alarm about the potential direction of the talks.

At the same time, a group of House conservatives want to break off negotiations, insisting that the debt ceiling bill the House passed last month should be their final offer.

Between the lines: Some Biden officials have been mildly frustrated that the business community hasn’t tried to do more to influence Republicans to pass a debt ceiling increase.

But it’s unclear if the business groups – or even the markets — have that much influence with some of the most conservative members of Congress.

The big picture:Yellen has been warning about the consequences of default for months, with Biden weighing in on Wednesday before leaving for the G-7 summit in Japan.

“It would be catastrophic for the American economy and the American people if we didn’t pay our bills,” Biden said.

What we are watching: A group of 11 Senate Democrats, led by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), sent Biden a letter on Thursday urging him to "prepare to exercise your authority under the 14th Amendment" to raise the debt ceiling.

"We cannot reach a budget agreement that increases the suffering of millions of Americans," they wrote, arguing that it is "seemingly impossible to enact a bipartisan budget deal at this time."

But privately, Biden officials are deeply skeptical that invoking the 14th Amendment would forestall a negative market reaction or withstand judicial scrutiny.

Scoop: Yellen’s private warning to Wall Street

Behind closed doors, Yellen says borrowing costs are already rising.

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen speaks during the 2023 Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) Capital Summit on May 16, 2023 in Washington, DC. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned on Friday that the U.S. is at "significant risk" of default on its debt for the first time in history "in the first two weeks of June" unless Congress and the Biden administration act to raise the country's debt ceiling.

Why it matters: Republicans and Democrats have been deadlocked over raising the debt ceiling for months, and the two parties remain far apart.

Republicans have been demanding that a raise to the debt ceiling must be paired with spending cuts, which Democrats and President Biden have opposed.

Driving the news: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), despite skepticism from fellow Republics about the early June default, has embraced June 1 as a hard deadline for a raise, using the date to ramp up pressure on Biden.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has previously said the U.S. may be unable to fulfill all of its financial obligations beginning June 1 without a debt ceiling raise, but her warning was met with skepticism from some Senate Republicans.

How it works: The debt ceiling does not control how much the government spends. That's Congress' responsibility.

Instead, the ceiling determines the fixed amount of debt the government can have outstanding at one time, meaning that if the Treasury can't take on additional debt to pay off expenses previously enacted by Congress and presidents of both parties, the country will default.

The exact consequences of a U.S. default are unknown, though Yellen and others have warned it could cause irreparable damage to the U.S. economy and global financial markets, potentially setting off a self-inflicted fiscal crisis.

Republicans and Democrats worked together to raise the borrowing limit three times throughout the Trump administration and several times in other previous administrations.

The bottom line: The CBO's warning on Friday further contextualized when the U.S. could possibly default without a raise, though predicting the exact date is difficult.

It said the country's current debt limit of $31.4 trillion was reached on Jan. 19, 2023, and that if the limit is not raised, "there is a significant risk that the Treasury will run out of funds at some point in the first two weeks of June."

The CBO also adjusted its projection for the federal deficit this year to $1.5 trillion, up $0.1 trillion from its February estimate.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout.

U.S. at "significant risk" of default in first two weeks of June, CBO says

It would be the first time in history that the U.S. intentionally defaulted on its debt.

The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on  May 11.

The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on  May 11. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Debt ceiling

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) said in a statement Thursday she intends to return to the Senate from her prolonged medical absence but did not include an exact return date.

Why it matters: Feinstein, who has missed dozens of  Senate votes since she was diagnosed and hospitalized with shingles in February, has faced calls to resign from fellow Democrats.

Democrats who have called on Feinstein, a member of the Senate Judiciary committee, to resign have argued that her absence has made it more difficult for the party to confirm additional judicial nominees to the federal judiciary, which in many cases are lifetime appointments.

What they're saying: Feinstein, who is 89 and plans to retire at the end of her term in 2025, defended her absence on Thursday, noting that the committee advanced eight judicial nominees during her absence with varying degrees of support from Republican.

"I’m disappointed that Republicans are blocking a few in committee," Feinstein said in the statement. "I’m confident that when I return, we will be able to move the remaining qualified nominees to the Senate floor for a vote."

Feinstein said in early March that she was released from the hospital and would continue her recovery with at-home care.

Yes, but: Democrats have said that several federal judge nominees have been unable to advance during Feinstein's absence, as Republicans would not likely support them, according to AP.

In mid-April, Feinstein also said she would return "as soon as possible once my medical team advises that it’s safe for me to travel."

The big picture: Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said on Thursday that the committee will also be unable to proceed with a new ethics reform bill for Supreme Court justices until Feinstein's return, CNN reports.

The reform bill would be in part in response to a series of ProPublica investigations into undisclosed gifts and deals Justice Clarence Thomas made with Republican megadonor Harlan Crow.

ProPublica reported on Thursday that Crow made private school tuition payments for Thomas’ grandnephew.

Previous reports indicated that Thomas accepted luxury trips virtually every year over the past two decades from Crow and that the Texas billionaire also bought multiple properties from Thomas, all of which the justice had not disclosed in financial disclosures at the time.

Go deeper: AOC urges Feinstein to retire, calling "anti-feminist" criticisms a "farce"

AOC urges Feinstein to retire, calling "anti-feminist" criticisms a "farce"

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Sen. Feinstein says she intends to return to Congress

The senator, who has been on medical leave since February, did not include an exact return date.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) in the Capitol in February 2023.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) in the Capitol in February 2023. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

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Bud Light pours plummeted in the first half of April at thousands of bars and restaurants, according to BeerBoard, a tech company that helps barrooms nationwide monitor their beer flows.

Why it matters: Conservative groups and country music stars have called for a boycott of the light lager since Dylan Mulvaney, a transgender advocate and TikTok star, announced on April 1 that Bud Light had sent her personalized cans to celebrate her one-year anniversary living as a trans woman.

The initial data from BeerBoard — which counts Buffalo Wild Wings, TGI Fridays and Hooters as customers — is just a snapshot.

But the decline in Bud Light pours indicates that some consumers are souring on the beer in the wake of a controversy that has laid bare the country's divisions over transgender rights.

Zoom in: Servers across nearly 3,000 locations using BeerBoard's network poured about 6% less Bud Light than other light lagers from April 2 to April 15, after the calls for a boycott.

The brand had outperformed its category by 15% in the previous two weeks March 18 to April 1. 

Other data — from NielsenIQ and Bump Williams Consulting — have Bud Light sales down 21% in volume in the week that ended April 15, after an 11% drop the previous week, according to the New York Post.

State of play: Anheuser-Busch, the parent company of Bud Light, announced last weekend that the two executives who oversaw the beer's collaboration with Mulvaney had been put on leave involuntarily, the Wall Street Journal reported.

That move came after the company’s CEO, Brendan Whitworth, issued a statement on April 14 that generally acknowledged the controversy, but didn’t delve into specifics.

Bud Light pours at bars take a dive amid boycott calls

Business risks are real when weighing in on cultural, social and political issues.

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