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Hurricane Ian continues its path of destruction up the East Coast. It’s expected to make landfall in South Carolina this afternoon. And in Florida, a massive clean-up and recovery has begun.

Plus: January 6, election deniers and the midterms.

Guests: Jessica Taylor, The Cook Political Report Senate and Governors Editor, and Axios' Margaret Talev. 

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Florida begins recovery efforts as Ian moves through state

How you can help Hurricane Ian recovery efforts

Publix donates $1 million to Hurricane Ian recovery, starts donation initiative at stores

Scoop: Hassan campaign emails donors to sound alarm over trouble in November

Florida Disaster Fund: Donate online, send a check or text "DISASTER" to 20222 to make a $10 donation.

The Red Cross: Donate online or text "IAN" to 90999 to make a $10 donation. The group is also asking for blood donors.

Volunteer Florida: This state agency has several volunteer positions available  to assist with Hurricane Ian recovery efforts, such as volunteering  with the Red Cross or assisting with mental health services. Apply online.

Convoy of Hope: The nonprofit says it is providing groceries to impacted communities in Florida. Donate online.

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

Here’s what we’re covering today: Florida starts its hurricane recovery efforts. 

And: January 6, election deniers, and the midterms. Our Friday politics wrap is today’s one big thing.

NIALA: Hurricane Ian continues its path of destruction up the East Coast. It’s expected to make landfall in South Carolina this afternoon. 

And in Florida, a massive clean-up and recovery has begun. 

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: This could be the deadliest hurricane in Florida's history. The numbers of still are still unclear, but we're hearing early reports of what may be substantial loss of life.”

NIALA: That was President Joe Biden yesterday at FEMA headquarters in Washington.

Yesterday, the White House declared nine Florida counties major disaster areas - that frees up significant federal funding to state and local governments, and allows individuals to apply for FEMA assistance.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said yesterday truckloads of food and water will soon be in the affected areas to aid those in need.

For those who’d like to help there are various ways to contribute – we’ll put all that info in our show notes.

NIALA: We’re back in a moment with more on the week in Politics.

January 6, election deniers and the midterms

NIALA: Hurricane Ian even had its effects in Washington this week where the January 6th committee postponed their ninth public hearing. But in a closed door session yesterday, Ginni Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, met with the committee for a voluntary interview after months of the committee trying to speak with Thomas about her role in trying to overturn the 2020 election. Axios’ managing editor for politics Talev and the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor are here to talk about that and more. Jessica, Margaret, welcome.

NIALA: Margaret, what do we know about this meeting between the January 6th committee and Jenny Thomas? It wasn't public.

MARGARET: It was not, but Benny Thomas, who's the chairman of the panel, came out and talked with reporters and said two things that I think are probably the most important. One is that she was at least somewhat cooperative, in this closed door interview. The other is that she is continuing to maintain, without evidence that the 2020 election was stolen. And I think that's important. It goes to her state of mind. It goes to where this investigation is going.

NIALA: Jessica, do we know what effect the January 6th select committee hearings have had on congressional races in particular, the midterms, how voters have responded to it?

JESSICA: Count me in the skeptical camp that at first that it was going to really sway things. You know, in the spring and when they sort of started these, the economy was still sputtering, inflation was still rising gas prices were still high. And then it does feel like this past summer there was a bit of a sea change add in the Dobbs decision on abortion nullifying Roe and these were getting a lot of viewership. And I think it was a way that Trump was reinserted in the race. He'd already been hovering there and very involved in candidates that he was backing in different things. But again, midterm elections are supposed to be a referendum on the current president. We have never had a former president that is still this involved and so I think it is having an impact. But I think we will just have incredibly high turnout across both parties for the midterms.

NIALA: Jessica, what does, from the standpoint of the Cook political report, what is it looking like in terms of control of the Senate and the House overall? What's the prognosis at the moment?

JESSICA: Okay, so what we have seen in the House, which my colleague David Wasserman covers, is that, you know, this could have been a pickup, for Republicans of over 30 seats when it was looking like a red wave. Now it could just be more of a red trickle. Of course, they only need a few seats to flip control, and that is very much within the feasibility. So I think if one thing is going to happen, we still believe that the house is going to flip control to Republicans. But if that's a narrow majority, then Kevin McCarthy, the would be speaker could have a time on his hands trying to wrangle all of these different factions. So, you know, we see it that it was possible Republicans could pick up 20 seats, we are saying somewhere between 10, 10 and 20 at this point. On the Senate, I see it as a coin flip really at this point, which at the beginning of, in the spring, for instance, I put at least a 60 to 65% chance that Republicans were going to flip control. But we've seen some of these races tighten. We've seen others move off the map. One that we moved a rating on last week was Arizona Senate moved from toss up to lean Democrat after Mitch McConnell's, Super PAC Senate Leadership Fund has essentially pulled all of their funding from there. And I'm seeing so many of these races in Senate and in governors in Michigan and Pennsylvania where the nominee is not on television. I mean, we're less than six weeks at this point. That just tells you how cash strap they are and how much they have fallen behind Democrats that were able to bank their money, make early ad reservations and candidates get a lower ad rate than Superpacs do. So candidates are the ones that their money goes further. 

NIALA: In a moment, we're back with more on this week in politics

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today, I’m Niala Boodhoo. Axios’ Margaret Talev and the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor are here unpacking the week in politics for us.  Margaret, we know that some races are tightening, we had a scoop yesterday about the New Hampshire Senate race?

MARGARET: Yeah, New Hampshire is just one case in point, but it's an important one because Senator Maggie Hassan, that's the Democratic incumbent, um, has been, uh, it projected in polls projected in conventional wisdom to be in a very strong position to hang onto that seat. She's facing a republican Challenger, Don Baldock, who was sort of, uh, Trumpian in therefore considered more extreme and and much harder to overtake. Uh, hasn't, but Hassan’s own campaign manager telling donors and supporters in a sort of alarming, alarmist email, uh, just within the last couple of days, that she may be in much more trouble than the polling has suggested. That Bullock may actually be in a much better position to bring the fight, maybe even to defeat her. Hassan's campaign director Aaron Jacobs says, “I wanna be clear with you about where things stand and correct some of the narratives we've seen about this race that, to be frank, don't reflect the reality we're seeing on the ground here in New Hampshire.” And that follows, uh, nationwide, a fair amount of fretting by democratic pollsters and candidates right now that the old ghost of, bad polling or overly enthusiastic polling or polling that under measures non-college voters or polling that under measures Trump voters is gonna come back to haunt Democrats. But, the truth is we won't know until election day how far off the polls were, but there is a level of angst that recent polling that suggests Democrats have been in a much stronger position might just reflect modeling errors in the polling and not the sentiment on the ground.

NIALA: Jessica we've been talking so much about Congress. We have not talked about governor's races, which is also a key part of this vote in November. What are you all seeing there.

JESSICA: Republicans have better shots in some of these Western states than they do in the Midwest. Um, sort of, is this the, is this the new path because they're very bullish on, um, New Mexico where they have a former weatherman, Mark Ronchetti running there. We still have that one rated leans democrat, but the most surprising race to me in all of the governor's map is in Oregon. Republicans have not won the governorship in Oregon since, um, 1982, 40 years. And because there is a three way race with three women, which makes it interesting too. And you have a well funded incumbent who, whose name is Betsy Johnson. She was a state, democratic state legislator left to run as an independent. She's getting, she's out fundraising and getting higher donations from even traditionally Republican donors. I mean, the winner could end up getting 35% of the vote in this race. It's really fascinating.

NIALA: Jessica Taylor is the Senate and governor's editor for the Cook Political Report. I wanna thank Margaret Talev, Axios’ Managing Editor for Politics. Thanks, you both have a great weekend.

NIALA: It’s been a long week - especially for all you folks in Florida. That’s why I didn’t want it to end without sharing my favorite moment from Washington - Lizzo playing a crystal flute gifted to James Madison at the Library of Congress. It turns out it’s one of 1,700 flutes at the library - the world’s largest collection. The priceless flute was saved by Dolly Madison from The White House during the War of 1812. 

NIALA: That’s all for this week. Axios Today is produced by Fonda Mwangi and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Our sound engineers are Alex Sugiura and Ben O’Brien. Alexandra Botti is our supervising producer. Sara Kehaulani Goo is Axios’ editor in chief. And special thanks as always to Axios co-founder Mike Allen.

I’m Niala Boodhoo. Stay safe, enjoy your weekend and we’ll see you back here on Monday.

Florida starts hurricane recovery efforts

Hurricane Ian continues its path of destruction.

Hurricane Ian

Axios Today

Podcasts

Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida on Wednesday afternoon as a high-end Category 4 storm. More than a million Floridians have already lost power. Other effects of the storm won’t be clear for days.

Plus, low income Americans struggle to afford hurricane prep.

And, Russia looks to annex parts of Ukraine.

Guests: Axios' Andrew Freedman and Ayurella Horn-Muller, The Washington Post’s Mary Ilyushina

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Fonda Mwangi, Ben O'Brien and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Live updates: Hurricane Ian makes landfall as high-end Category 4 storm

Flooding from Hurricane Ian likely to linger in Florida

U.S. urges citizens in Russia to leave "immediately" amid mobilization efforts

Here’s what you need to know today: Russia looks to annex parts of Ukraine. Plus, low income Americans struggle to afford hurricane prep.

But first, Ian confirms the new normal for hurricanes. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida on Wednesday afternoon as a high end category four storm. Governor Ron DeSantis spoke yesterday afternoon from Tallahassee after more than a million Floridians had already lost power.

RON DESANTIS: You're gonna see more power outages as this storm moves through the center part of our state, and before it exits into the Atlantic, Atlantic coast.

NIALA: Other effects of the storm won't be clear for days according to Kevin Grimsley, a Tampa based hydrologist for the US Geological Survey. 

KEVIN GRIMSLEY: Some of the rivers do take a very long time to build up, and they're very slow to then come back down as soon as the hurricane moves on here in the next day or two hopefully, that flooding could continue for, uh, a week or more.

NIALA: Axios Climate and Energy Reporter, Andrew Freedman has been covering the storm. Andrew, What stands out to you about Ian?

ANDREW FREEDMAN: So I think the thing that really made a lot of, uh, meteorologists and reporters sick to our stomachs, on Wednesday morning looking at this, on satellite and on radar was just the rate at which this thing intensified from a category three to the borderline of category five. Putting on this display of 1000 lightning strikes in one hour in the circular ring of thunderstorms that surrounds the eye. Lightning is pretty unusual, especially continuous lightning in that region. It's a sign of property intensification, but it's also a sign of something strange going on. 

NIALA: What does this make you think about climate change in hurricanes?

ANDREW: We have a really good understanding of the fact that hurricanes are becoming wetter, raining more due to the warming season, warming air temperatures. And we're seeing this trend towards rapid intensification that is happening more frequently and more frequently. I had a call with a meteorologist a couple days ago when I saw the hurricane center predicting that this would go to a category two shortly before landfall. And I said, what do you make of that? And they said, I don't buy it because that hasn't held true for the past seven years. And I said, well it holds true based on physical science, but it doesn't hold true based on the new normal. And that's really what I've been thinking about it is watching storm after storm after storm just hit the gas pedal right when you don't want it to.

NIALA: Andrew Friedman is Axios Climate and Energy Reporter. Thanks Andrew.

Low income Americans struggle to afford hurricane prep

Many lower income residents in Hurricane Ian’s path have had to make a difficult choice: spend money on daily essentials or on hurricane prep. Preparing for a storm can cost thousands of dollars – think about supplies like plywood, batteries and food and water. Experts recommend stocking up with a gallon of water per person per day - and to be prepared for seven days. And with inflation the cost of food alone has gone up more than 11 percent over the last year.

Axios climate reporter Ayurella Horn-Muller has been reporting on this in the Tampa Bay area, and sent us this dispatch.

AYURELLA HORN-MULLER: This is actually something that's specific to Tampa is a, a major issue within the Hillsborough County population. 42% of people can't afford the basic cost of living. And neighboring Pinellas County, which is where I live, that's 46% of people. And the best hurricane preparedness plans recommend at least a week of food and non-perishable items and water per resident in a household, including pets. And that's just the bare minimum. So there are, when you see a major storm impact an area with a lot of lower income households that don't have the, the right supplies. You do see a, a large impact in worse case scenarios and mortalities. And, and you see families that are kind of stuck in these really tough situations where they have to turn to outside resources to try to get just basic essentials like food and water. I spoke with Feeding Tampa Bay and they're a nonprofit that serve 10 counties in the region. And they serve roughly 1.5 to 1.75 million meals every week. And I spoke with their CEO, Thomas Mantz.

THOMAS MANTZ: There are far more people who are economically unstable than we've seen in many, many years. I think even some of the reports that we see out about food insecurity, numbers and other things, I still don't think they reflect the current circumstance of the long term impact of two years of and now a recession. And so families don't have the resources to put food in their own pantries, keep things stocked up.

AYURELLA HORN-MULLER: Food banks like Feeding Tampa Bay they start doing extra distributions ahead of major storms, and then as soon as a storm passes and it's safe to go out, they start moving food into the most impacted areas that, that they see on the news. So this is kind of a case where we have households that, can't afford to pay for things that they're told they need to have in order to be best prepared and safe for a storm, but they also can't afford not to do those things.

NIALA: That’s Axios’ Ayurella Horn-Muller.

In a moment – Russia on the brink of annexing four regions in Ukraine. 

NIALA: Welcome Back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. The US Embassy in Moscow issued a security alert yesterday, warning Americans to leave the country immediately and suggesting dual US-Russian citizens could be drafted into the war effort. Here to catch us so quickly on the latest in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is Mary Ilyushina, Russia reporter for the Washington Post. She's joining us from Latvia. Mary, the US is telling Americans to leave. We know there's been unrest and a mass exodus in reaction to Putin's mobilization efforts. What is the situation in Russia right now?

MARY ILLYUSHINA: So the US I think issued the warning for two reasons. One is that obviously there's a massive exodus of people outside of Russia, mostly of fighting age men, and sometimes their families, cuz they don't wanna be drafted. And that led to most commercial flights essentially sold out, to the very few destinations that are still available for Russia because as we know, Russia's been essentially in isolation over the invasion of Ukraine. And a lot of countries have stopped flights to this country. And the second reason is that there are dual US-Russian citizens and the embassy warned them to leave the country immediately because they fear that they may be drafted. 

NIALA: We know that Vladimir Putin has a big speech expected tomorrow, his State of the Union speech. What are we expecting from that declaring victory in these so-called referendums in occupied areas of Ukraine?

MARY: The expectation is that he will use this as a platform to announce that Russia has, you know, annexed these lands or taken these lands. That would mean that they are now part of the Russian Federation. They think this is gonna be a warning to Ukrainians to kind of slow down their counter offensive or maybe halt it, that's their hope, because they will consider any attack on these territories as a direct attack on Russia. Which, the motto here is that Russia has been saying that they're trying to bring, you know, historic Russian lands back and that they're saving Russian-speaking populations in those areas. Although, you know, I think Russians have also noticed that the objective has changed many times, and with this mobilization announcement that came last week, people are really, really unnerved and sort of panicking because it's now kinda hitting home and they need to present them some, some purpose of why this is happening.

NIALA: And what has Ukraine's response been to all of this?

MARY: Ukraine said it doesn't change anything for them and that Kiev will continue to fight. And they have completely slammed these referendums. They said that it's just a propaganda show. And that sort of echos what the West has saying as well, because there's really no international recognition of these votes, even from countries that are more Russia-friendly, like Serbia, for example, and some of the central Asian countries that have been cooperating Russia for a long time, but now they're kind of moving away from that and are not willing to jump and support Moscow in this.

NIALA: And is there anything else you think we need to know to understand this moment in the war?

MARY: I think it's very crucial to see how the Ukrainian counter-offensive is going to develop because there is this sort of, it appears that they're renewing this effort they're now attempting to take the, which at the outskirts of the Donetsk region. So if they do that, which, you know, seems like it may happen quite soon there'll be another big strategic blow for Vladmir Putin. And that also, if it happens, especially on the day of this State of the Union address, that would be, you know, even more in juxtaposition of what he's trying to portray that he's very much succeeding in this war. 

NIALA: The Washington Post’s Mary Ilyushina. Thank you Mary. 

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

Ian confirms the new normal for hurricanes

Hurricane Ian hits Florida as a high-end Category 4 storm.

Hurricane Ian’s not expected to make landfall in Florida until this afternoon, but the impact of this Category 4 storm is being felt already across a huge swath of the state. From flooding in Florida’s southernmost tip of Key West, to tornados in Broward County, and wind gusts already kicking up this morning in Tampa. 

Plus, the White House hosts its first summit on hunger in more than 50 years. How food delivery services like DoorDash are playing a role.

Guests: Axios' Ben Montgomery and Margaret Harding McGill.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Live updates: Hurricane Ian heads toward Florida with "catastrophic" winds and flooding

Hurricane Ian leaves Cuba without any power

Food banks turn to DoorDash and Amazon to reach people 

Here’s what you need to know today: the White House hosts its first summit on hunger in more than fifty years… how food delivery services are playing a role.

But first: a catastrophic hurricane threatens Florida – that’s today’s One Big Thing

NIALA: Hurricane Ian’s not expected to make landfall in Florida until this afternoon, but the impact of this catastrophic Category 4 storm is being felt already across a huge swath of the state. From flooding in Florida’s southern most tip of Key West - to tornados in Broward County - and wind gusts already kicking up this morning in Tampa. Ian already wiped out power across all of Cuba on Tuesday. The massive storm is the ninth of this hurricane season. Axios’ Ben Montgomery is at home in Tampa. Hey Ben. How are you doing?

BEN MONTGOMERY: Hanging in there. Thanks.

NIALA: You know, when I think about this, as our listeners know I'm from Miami. It takes eight hours to drive out of the state of Florida when you're from Miami. The idea that this storm is affecting everywhere from Key West to Tampa Bay and the Atlantic Coast, that's how big the storm is?

BEN: Yeah, it's massive. I mean, if you look at the thing on the satellite, it easily consumes half the state of Florida. This is a big storm, 400 miles wide. 

NIALA: And this is also a slow moving storm. How long could this go on?

BEN: A couple of days, you know, they're expecting it sometime on Thursday after it makes landfall Wednesday night, sometime on Thursday to make turn to head more toward the Orlando area after making landfall. I think around the border of Lee and Charlotte County's, It could be with us a couple of days. You know, Tampa, Tampa Bay sits right on the north of that. But I think right now we are, my neighborhood, people who live along the Hillsborough River and along upper Tampa Bay, we are very grateful. It's unfortunate for our friends to the south, but we're very thankful that this storm appears to be making landfall south of us because that saves us from what could have been a massive storm surge. They were predicting anywhere from seven to ten feet in storm surge in the Tampa Bay area. So we've dodged a bullet with this one.

NIALA: Ben, can you just explain the storm surge aspect of this and the fact that this is actually possibly a danger for both coasts? 

BEN: Yeah, well, everywhere there's a tributary through south of the storm, which as we know, you know, the Everglades are down there and they serve and have long served as a natural protector against hurricanes. But, every tributary, you know, water is flowing off of the peninsula its flowing down toward each coast. And so depending on how a a hurricane approaches a tributary, water  can go one of two directions that go back up or it can come out. And when storms push water up into tributaries, well, everyone who lives sort of in the basin in the region where, you know, where the water drains into those tributaries, then they stand the risk of facing storm surge. 

We've been building our homes higher for many decades now, but there's still lots and lots of properties that are prone to major floods with surges like this and forecasters, meteorologists, experts tell us that, you know, that's the biggest killer from hurricanes it's flood waters and storm surge versus the high speed winds. So, what we're looking at this morning still is 140 mile per hour winds, hitting land at some time, middle day today. That is incredibly dangerous for the people south of here, for people in Tampa Bay too we're gonna feel those winds as well. But, just avoiding that storm surge is a is a big thing for, you know, the 3.2 million people in this region.

NIALA: Right. We're gonna be seeing lots of people without power. Tornadoes possible, especially as a storm then heads up through the central part of the state in Orlando. Axios’ Ben Montgomery, part of our local team in Tampa. Ben, stay safe. Take care.

NIALA: More than 2 .5 million people in Florida are under evacuation orders this morning. For some, public shelters are the only option. Elisa DeGregorio is one shelter manager in Pinellas County - who talked to us about the vulnerable nature of residents coming to shelter there.

ELISA DEGREGORIO: Our shelters are all open regardless of how many people show up. We'll just continue to designate space for those folks and you know, it'll get a little tight and snugly and we'll go from there, but the shelters doors don't shut, don't ever close.

NIALA: Thanks to Axios’s Ayurella Horn-Mueller for that audio. Tomorrow, we’ll have more on how people who are already having a hard time paying food bills prepare for a hurricane.

But after the break - how technology companies are taking part in the White House Conference on Hunger.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. 

During the pandemic as hunger worsened in the US, food banks and pantries relied heavily on delivery services like DoorDash, Instacart and Amazon. This year alone, DoorDash made more than 1.5 million food bank deliveries in 49 states and the District of Columbia.Today the White House is hosting its first conference on hunger since the Nixon administration. The goal is to end food insecurity by 2030. And these food delivery services will be part of that conversation. Axios' Tech Policy Reporter Margaret Harding McGill has been covering this story. 

Margaret, when we look at the numbers in 2021, one out of every ten American households experience food insecurity and the might be interested to know about role have food delivery services played as we've see hunger worsen in the US? 

MARGARET HARDING MCGILL: Yeah, I mean I think the pandemic just really revealed what the need is. I remember and I'm sure you do too, watching images on the news of families sitting in cars in lines for hours at mass distribution sites because they could no longer go inside to pick up their food. So they would just sit in their cars and hope for a delivery. So some of these delivery services have helped address that issue to the point that some food banks are actually shifting their models from those master distribution sites to rely on more and more on home deliveries, and it's not just a issue from the pandemic as well.

One person I talked to said that when gas prices spiked is just not possible for some families to sit in an idling car for hours waiting for food. And in these cases, getting a free delivery from a food bank solves that problem.

NIALA: And so what are the food pantries in other organizations working on this, what are they saying about these delivery services? I know you heard in particular about DoorDash.

MARGARET: The feedback I got was that repeatedly people told me they were a godsend because the food banks know the need is there and they also feel like they are reaching populations that they couldn't reach before. Seniors who are home bound, parents of young children, where the idea of just getting all the kids in the car and getting them to a place, it just feels insurmountable. Or people who have to isolate because of illness or recovering from surgery. Those are all groups that may need food but are challenging to reach without delivery. 

And you know, I think there are certain stereotypes around the people who need services from food banks, but a lot of Americans experience food and security, including Americans with college degrees. It cuts across all different walks of life. And I think that there's some shame and some stigma associated with going into a food bank and what your neighbors will think if you're seen coming in or out of there that goes away if you just have a door dash delivery at your house, they call it delivering with dignity. And I think that that really helps expand these services to more.

One food bank I talked to said that they, she was relying on her husband loading up his truck and driving around before they started working with DoorDash to do these deliveries. And now they make about 6,000 deliveries a month using DoorDash.

MARGARET: DoorDash is donating these services, which makes me wonder how long they can really do this for free. When I asked them that, they said that they're also looking to partner with other organizations because it's unrealistic for DoorDash to do all this work on its own.

NIALA: Margaret, how much of the conversation today at the White House will be about these food delivery companies, and in particular, what advocates are hoping will happen in Washington to help make things easier for them?

MARGARET: They're hoping that policymakers will consider easing regulations to make home delivery services more feasible. For example, a senior program in Pennsylvania requires seniors to show ID for every single delivery. Now, a DoorDash driver, a dasher, can wait and see the ID and go on their way, but other delivery services where they just wanna drop off a box of food, can't really wait around for somebody to show their IDs. So they're hoping that maybe that could be eased so that it's possible for more delivery services to take part.

NIALA: Margaret Harding McGill covers tech policy for Axios from Washington. Thanks for joining us, Margaret.

NIALA: That’s its for us today. For the latestt breaking news on Hurricane Ian you can visit axios dot com. And for all of you in its path, please stay safe.

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - and I’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

NIALA: I want to tell you about a podcast from Slate: A Word with Jason Johnson. The show shines a light on the facts, the history, and the reality of how race plays out in our politics and society.

Every Friday, political commentator Jason Johnson brings his sharp analysis to discussions about America’s challenges around race, and ideas on the way forward. Subscribe to A Word with Jason Johnson, from Slate, wherever you listen to podcasts.

Hurricane Ian slams Florida

A catastrophic Category 4 hurricane threatens Florida.

hurricanes

The British pound has hit the lowest point against the US Dollar since the 1790s. On Monday, the pound was at 1.03 compared to the dollar. This moment feels eerily similar to 2007, at the beginning of the Great Recession. But, as Axios’ Felix Salmon and Courtenay Brown tell us, that doesn’t mean we’re facing the same economic catastrophe now.

Plus, Russian anger keeps growing in response to Putin’s draft.

Guests: Axios' Felix Salmon, Courtenay Brown and Alison Snyder. 

British pound gets pounded as Truss tax cut plan sinks in 

The world economy has an ominous August 2007 kind of feeling

Russian military recruitment offices come under attack after draft order

NASA is about to crash a spacecraft into an asteroid

Here’s what you need to know today: Russian anger keeps growing in response to Putin’s draft. Plus, NASA takes on an asteroid.

But first, global economic deja vu: that’s today’s One Big Thing.

The British pound has hit an all time low against the US dollar. And when we say all time low, I mean since the 1790s. On Monday, the pound was $1.03. That's just one sign that this moment feels eerily similar to 2007 at the beginning of the great recession. But, as Axios’ Felix Salmon and Courtenay Brown tell us, that doesn't mean we're facing the same economic catastrophe now. They're here to go deeper into all of this. Hi Felix. Hi Courtenay.

COURTENAY BROWN: Thank you for having me.

NIALA: Felix. First, can you explain why the British pound is down more than 20% against the dollar, just this year?

FELIX: Britain is a small and fragile country, Niala. And I say this as a Britt. It kind of cut itself off from Europe. That was its big anchor in 2020, when it finally did Brexit and now it has nothing keeping it afloat. When you have a crazy economic policy, like they just announced, big tax cut which was going to hugely expand the amount of money that the government needs to borrow, there's no obvious way that they can pay for it. There's huge bills coming due. And that's what financial markets do when countries kind of lose track of their finances and lose control of their finances, is the market's just marked down the currency and that's exactly what's happened in the UK.

NIALA: So how significant is it that financial markets reacted to the UK as if it was basically a developing country's economy rather than the six largest in the world?

FELIX: I think it's very significant. I think it's a really drives home to Britain's how precarious their situation is and how, yeah, they are looking like an emerging market.

NIALA: So we are talking about this week, but in August 2007, the French bank ‘BNP Paribas’ experienced funding problems because of mortgage losses, which required a liquidity lifeline from the European Central Bank. Courtenay, you and Neil wrote that in hindsight, that was the beginning of the great recession. So how similar is what we're seeing in the UK this week to what happened in France in 2007?

COURTENAY: Yeah, I think, let me just start with what our piece is not saying, it's not saying that any global economic crisis will be as catastrophic or severe as what we faced during the global financial crisis. But, August 2007 this moment that you mentioned was something that probably went unnoticed to most people, maybe not Felix, but in hindsight it was the beginning of the global financial crisis. And it was kind of this pivotal moment in a sense, much like maybe in 10 years, we may look at what's happening across financial markets right now and say, you know, this was the pivotal moment that suggested the start of something new and possibly troubles to come for global economies.

FELIX: I'll just jump in Niala and add that in 2007 BNP Paribas froze access to certain funds that had taken big losses on mortgage products because it couldn't afford to pay back investors. And what happened on Monday was that basically every British mortgage lender stopped writing mortgages. They said, we are in this completely chaotic situation right now. We don't know what's happening to interest rates. We don't know how to write mortgages right now. We're just going to stop lending money for a week or so until we can get a feel for where the new situation is, and then maybe we'll come back into the market. But if you need a mortgage in the UK right now, you actually can't get one. That's a big deal.

NIALA: And just to be clear, you're not saying we're about to face another great recession, but it sounds like you're saying we could be towards a shift of something new. What is that something new?

COURTENAY: So, in the 2010s there was this era of low growth, low inflation. It's very clear that that's going to be very different than the era of the 2020s. Interest are going to be higher, inflation, as I'm sure everyone knows, is really high not just in the US but across most major economies and global central banks are racing to do something about that. And this is going to be the dynamic that shapes the decade of the 2020s, perhaps. I think initially there was this idea that some of the fallout from the pandemic would go away and I think it's become very, very clear that some of the fallout from the pandemic is not going to go away as quickly as economists had possibly expected.

FELIX: Although I will hazard to add that what's going on in the UK is more of a fallout from Brexit than it is a fallout from the pandemic. The COVID pandemic arriving is what I call the new, not normal, a whole bunch of very unexpected things coming out of left field. And COVID being the prime example, but what we are seeing in the UK with the pound and that kind of thing, all being part of a bigger vibe of unpredictability, let's call it. And when you have that, what investors do is they have this thing called a flight to quality. They will sell whatever other currencies are out there and buy dollars. And that's creating instability around the world.

NIALA: But should Americans take comfort in the fact that the flight to quality is to the US, so people think our economy is more stable?

FELIX: Yeah, I think, I think that's fair enough. 

NIALA: Axios’ Economic Reporter Courtaney Brown and Chief Financial Correspondent Felix Salmon. Thank you booth.

After the break, Russian protest continue against Putin’s draft

Russian anger keeps growing in response to Putin’s draft

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today! I’m Niala Boodhoo.

Let’s catch you up quick on the last few days in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Opposition is growing against the Russian effort to enlist 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine. In an attack on a Russian draft office yesterday, a gunman shot and wounded a Russian recruitment officer. And thousands continue to flee the country to escape being pulled into the war. Minorities, including Crimean Tatars [ta-TARS], have been reported to be disproportionately targeted by the draft. Hundreds around Russia have been arrested protesting the mobilization.

And the US has sharply warned Russia against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s veiled threats last week. 

JAKE SULLIVAN : And we have communicated directly, privately to the Russians at very high levels, that there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

NIALA: That’s White House National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, speaking on ABC’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday. 

Meanwhile in Ukraine, four occupied regions are casting votes in so-called referendums on whether or not to join Russia. People have reported armed Russian soldiers going door-to-door during voting. We’ll have more later this week.

NASA TV: This will be humanities first ever attempt at trying to move another celestial body should be, and also our first attempt ever to execute a mission for the sole purpose of planetary defense. 4, 3, 2, 1. Oh my gosh. Oh, wow. Got, and we have impact for humanity in the name of planetary defense.

NIALA: For the first time ever last night, NASA slammed a spacecraft into a small asteroid. It was an attempt to redirect it. That was NASA TV and the team behind the mission, watching as it launched and succeeded.

Axios Science Editor, Allison Snyder, is here to explain why. 

ALLISON SNYDER: The first thing to know is that there are no asteroids on a collision course with earth and these strikes are very rare, but if they do happen, they can be devastating and very dangerous. And so NASA is trying to test out this technology so that in the event that there is one coming our way, they can scale it up and try to change the orbit of the a asteroid. And it worked in the sense that the spacecraft hit the asteroid and over the next few weeks, they will measure how much the orbit changed.

NASA TV ANNOUNCER:  In case you’re keeping score, that’s Humanity 1 - Asteroid - Zero.

NIALA: As my colleague Dave Lawler tweeted – knowing that we have the technology and ability to destroy earth several times over, it’s also nice to know that we also have the ability to save it. Dave - couldn’t agree more.

NIALA: That’s it for us today! I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

Economic déjà vu

The British pound is sinking and it feels like 2007

Economy

Democrats’ chances of beating the GOP in Arizona, a key swing state in the midterms, are growing. The Cook Political Report last week moved the Arizona senate race from its “toss up” category to "leans Democratic." Arizona Republicans nominated MAGA-aligned candidates in races across the state. 

Plus, spam text messages have exploded: how the FCC could respond.

Guests: Axios' Margaret Talev and Margaret Harding McGill. 

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Fonda Mwangi, Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

FCC takes long-delayed step against spam text surge 

DeSantis declares state of emergency as Tropical Storm Ian nears

Here’s what you need to know today: spam text messages have exploded…how the FCC could respond. Plus, hurricane season picks up.

But first, the biggest midterm test for MAGA Republicans – that’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: Democrat's chance of beating the GOP in Arizona, a key swing state in this upcoming midterm elections, are growing. The Cook Political Report last week moved the Arizona Senate race from its “tossup” category to “lean's democratic.” Arizona Republicans nominated Maga aligned candidates in races across the state and a recent survey of Arizona voters by AARP found that in the Senate race democratic Senator Mark Kelly is leading Republican nominee Blake Masters, 50% to 42%. Axios' Margaret Talev is here with the big picture. Good morning,  Margaret.

NIALA: The Cook Political Report adjusted the ratings of two competitive Arizona House seats also in the Democrats direction. What's going on here?

MARGARET: Well, Arizona is shaping up to be really the biggest test in terms of sort of from the top to the bottom of the ticket of how these MAGA-aligned far right candidates who really have embraced former president Donald Trump's conspiracy theories about the election, how they will fare in a general election, in a swing state. And what these polling numbers that you're referring to are showing is that at least at the congressional level, in the Senate races, Mark Kelly the incumbent, the Democrat against Republican challenger Blake Masters and in two of the House races, this is the Republican challenger running against democratic incumbent Tom O'Halleran and this is the, seat held by Republican David Schweikert, that in these seats, Republicans are actually now at risk of losing, whereas before it should have been a toss up or the Republicans might have had the edge. But I'll say there are two races where this isn't necessarily true and they're really important races. One is the Governor's race and the other is the race for Secretary of State. And in both of those races, what we're seeing right now are statistical ties. This is Republican Kari Lake against the Democrat, Katie Hobbs in the governor's race. And in the Secretary of State's race, Mark Finchem is actually narrowly leading the Democrat Adrian Fontis. And so these are races that are really important because of course they may be decisive in terms of the 2024 election and how to analyze election law.

NIALA: Margaret getting back to the Senate race, a super PAC aligned with Mitch McConnell withdrew more than $9 million worth of ads from the state leaving Blake Masters at a financial disadvantage. His rating is at 54% unfavorable. How unusually negative is that for a first time candidate?

MARGARET:  It is and McConnell's withdrawal is a sign of two things. Number one, a lack of confidence in Masters being able to win. But number two, a desire to have no association with him. And so some other Republican groups have kind of stepped into that breach to try to stanch some of the loss of funds but Masters, it has proved to be one of these candidates. And there are few around the country, Doug Mastriano, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Pennsylvania is another example. There's a handful of these candidates, where, the tide polling suggests, is moving away from them, as they have shown themselves just to be really controversial candidates. And of course, the question for Donald Trump at the end of all of this is if these candidates are the reason why Republicans lose races and why Democrats potentially hold control of the Senate, right, what impact will that have on his 2024 prospects? But the question for Americans, not just for the democratic leadership, but for the political establishment and for American voters, for institutions who depend on rule of law and democracy, the question is when you have nominees who have tethered themselves, not just to Donald Trump, but to conspiracy theories about elections to election deniers, and they end up in office, what implications does that have for governance for American democracy?

NIALA: Margaret Talev is Axios' managing editor for politics. Thanks Margaret.

NIALA: Our hurricane season is getting more active. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency over the weekend as Tropical Storm Ian gained strength in the Caribbean. Before it hits the US, it’s expected to dump three to six inches of rain on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and as much as a foot of rain in Cuba.

Hurricane Fiona, which wreaked havoc in the Caribbean last week, made landfall in Canada before dawn on Saturday sweeping away houses and causing power outages for hundreds of thousands there. 

And around half of Puerto Rico’s electrical customers are still without power as of Sunday evening, a week after Fiona hit. At least three people died and two were injured as a result of accidents from the power outage. 

After the break, the FCC gets closer to cracking down on spam text messages.

Spam text messages have exploded: how the FCC could respond

We were having our editorial meeting yesterday to talk about doing a conversation on spam text messages and I'm not kidding, I literally got one while we were planning this conversation. More than 10 billion spam texts were sent just in the month of August, that's nearly 39 spam texts for every person in the US. But there's some good news, the Federal Communications Commission finally approved a long delayed proposal to crack down on spam texts last Friday. Here with the details as Axios’ Tech Policy Reporter, Margaret Harding McGill. Hi Margaret.

MARGARET HARDING MCGILL: Hi, I'm so sorry about that spam text, but they feel unavoidable.

NIALA: Yeah, they are. Why has there been such a big increase though lately?

MARGARET: Well, I think the scammers are going to the mode of communication that people use the most. People don't answer calls that they don't know who the caller is. People are learning to avoid robocalls, but text messages are so much more, I guess, intimate and you're more likely to click on them. So of course, spammers are using them more and more.

NIALA: And so what would this proposal from the FCC do to help stop this?

MARGARET: This proposal is basically the start of an FCC process. So they want to seek comment on requiring cell phone companies to block texts from numbers that are known to be illegal or fraudulent, such as numbers that aren't actually allocated to a real person or numbers that come from the do not originate list where you're not supposed to be carrying calls from those numbers in the first place. They also will see comment on whether cell phone companies should use third party analytics providers to help them inform blocking efforts and whether the agency should push the wireless companies to authenticate text messages, to make sure they are coming from who they say they are.

NIALA: So how soon would this go into effect?

MARGARET: Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel circulated this proposal for her colleagues for a vote almost a year ago. And I started asking questions about why it had been lingering for nearly a year when Americans are still dealing with this issue. After I asked those questions, the FCC voted on it Friday night, but that's just the start of the process. The FCC is going to review feedback on these proposed rules and then they will final regulations and that process can take months. So I don't think we're gonna see any final action anytime soon.

NIALA: Margaret, can Congress do anything about this, like pass any laws? Would that be faster?

MARGARET: Yeah, I think, a new law might be faster,  but a consumer advocate I talked to said that she believes it's unlikely that Congress will pass updated legislation because some of these text messages actually benefit politicians, those ones that say, “Hey, do you wanna donate to so and so,” or “we could really use your vote.” They wanna be able to send those texts without fear of being sued. Congress did pass a law in 2019, on robocalls and it also ordered the FCC to consider rules to protect consumers from receiving unwanted text messages from unauthenticated numbers, but that didn't actually give the FCC any new tools to enforce those rules.

NIALA: So it looks like for the immediate future, we're still gonna be getting a lot of spam texts.

The biggest midterm test for MAGA Republicans

Democrats’ chances of beating the GOP in Arizona increasing

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Florida starts hurricane recovery efforts

Ian confirms the new normal for hurricanes

Hurricane Ian slams Florida

Economic déjà vu

The biggest midterm test for MAGA Republicans

Immigration energizes midterm voters

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