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The massive climate, tax and health care bill that Senate democrats passed over the weekend is expected to go to the House for a vote on Friday. If passed as is, the bill will become the largest climate legislation ever passed by Congress, and will invest roughly $370 billion in renewable energy, electric vehicles and other climate programs.

Plus: the Senate’s spending bill leaves states on their own to ease the burden of childcare costs.

And: the great Serena Williams’ next chapter. 

Guests: Axios' Ben Geman and Dana Goldstein, national correspondent at the New York Times.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Alex Sugiura, and Ben O'Brien. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Why the climate bill's Senate passage matters

What's inside Democrats' $740 billion tax, climate and health care bill

Child care subsidies would send 1.2 million women into the workforce, new paper finds

With Child Care Scarce, States Try to Fix ‘a Broken Market’ (New York Times)

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

Today: states try to ease the burden of high childcare costs. Plus: the next chapter for Serena Williams.

But first, today’s One Big Thing: Congress on the brink of passing the most important climate bill in history.

NIALA: The massive climate, tax and healthcare bill that Senate Democrats passed over the weekend is expected to go to the house for a vote on Friday. And if it's passed as is this bill will become the largest climate legislation ever passed by Congress. It will invest roughly $370 billion dollars into renewable energy, electric vehicles and other climate programs. Here to help us dig deeper on what this bill will do is Axios’ energy reporter Ben Geman. Hey Ben!

NIALA: Ben so I mentioned a few things here. How would this bill actually combat climate change?

BEN: The biggest thing in this legislation is this huge kind of basket of either new or significantly extended and expanded tax incentives for developing all sorts of low carbon energy, wind and solar power, geothermal power, other sorts of renewables. On the transportation side a really big thing is that you've got this big increase in tax credits for purchasing electric vehicles right. It's a really broad brush approach. You know, another big thing is new and expanded tax credits for basically making your home a lot greener, whether that's purchase of a heat pump or more efficient appliances or other types of energy efficiency related efforts. Um, so several analysts have said that when you tack on all these provisions to existing policies, that should bring us emissions. roughly 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. So that doesn't get us all the way to President Biden's pledge under the Paris agreement of a 50% cut, but it certainly brings things a heck of a lot closer than they would be without this legislation. 

NIALA: In order to build this entire green energy infrastructure, this is gonna require a lot of workers. And I wonder how you think that's gonna fit into the current labor market.

BEN: That's a really good question because some clean technology sectors are already finding some challenges with this tight labor market. And so, you know, some of the early estimates that I've seen suggest that if all goes well, you know, if this scale up of different types of clean energy truly does come to pass, that there could be upwards of, you know, perhaps 900,000 jobs created annually over the next say decade or so. Uh, you know, that's a lot of people. And so, you know, some of the sources that I've been talking to have been saying that it's going to be very important, that educational institutions, uh, state local and federal officials, other stakeholders really get on the same page in terms of job training and apprenticeships and other aspects of just sort of really preparing the workforce for this legislation.

NIALA: Ben, you mentioned the Paris climate agreement. If this bill passes, how much do you think it goes towards repairing the American relationship on the global stage when it comes to working towards climate change reduction?

BEN: So I think there is a lot of hope here that the passage of this legislation will help give the United States credibility on its climate change ambitions, right? So you've already had President Biden come out and say, look, the U.S. pledges to cut our emissions by 50%, you know, by the end of this decade. But that pledge is really sort of a paper tiger without, you know, aggressive legislation behind it. And so now the U.S. can say, “hey, we're putting weight behind our pledge under the agreement.” And so I think a lot of people are hoping that this gives the U.S. credibility and more leverage to push other large emitting and polluting countries to get more aggressive in their climate efforts as well.

NIALA: Ben Geman is an Axios energy reporter. Thanks, Ben.

NIALA: In a moment: how some states are stepping in to help parents with the high cost of childcare.

States try to ease the burden of high childcare costs

NIALA: Welcome Back to Axios Today. I’m Niala Boodhoo. Even before the pandemic parents in the U.S. were struggling with the high cost and low availability of childcare. And when the pandemic worsened that crisis Democrats vowed to bolster support for parents. According to the Treasury Department, 60% of American families who need childcare can't afford it. But support for childcare was ultimately left out of that massive bill that was passed in the Senate over the weekend. So where does that leave parents and caregivers? Dana Goldstein is a national correspondent with the New York Times and has been reporting on this. Dana first, why was childcare left off the Inflation Reduction Act? What happened?

DANA GOLDSTEIN: The short answer to that question is just that Senator Manchin of West Virginia, of course the key centrist Democrat in this process, did not want all these different child-related elements to be included in the bill. He said, you know, as early as last year that he felt there was just too much going on in President Biden's original Build Back Better plan. There was the continuation of the monthly child tax credits. There was infant care, toddler care, preschool, parental leave, and he wanted the price tag of the bill to come down. And as a result of this, none of it ended up making it in.

NIALA: How are states stepping in then to fill some of these gaps?

DANA: We're really seeing two buckets of approaches, depending on whether the state is more conservative or more liberal. Some of the more liberal states like New Jersey, like New Mexico, like Colorado are pursuing pay raises for childcare providers and more state subsidies to create more affordable childcare spots for families that need care for their kids. There's another, um, approach that more conservative states are taking, which is notable. I mean, even many red states have acknowledged the crisis, but are taking that classic conservative approach of cutting regulations. So for example, in Iowa, they are raising the group size so more children can be in the classroom. Even, um, you know, very little kids, two or three. And they're also making it so that 16 year olds are qualified to provide care on their own without adult supervision, as long as the children are five and up.

NIALA: And Dana, how do things look in terms of the labor market for childcare?

DANA: So, about 10% of the nation's childcare centers closed during the pandemic. So there really is an even deeper supply problem now than there was. Another really big problem facing the sector and a reason why a lot of states are raising pay, is that many childcare workers are simply leaving the field because of these labor shortages across the broader economy. They can earn more say in fast food or working behind a cash register in the retail sector, and some are able to, you know, get office jobs right now. So, it's very difficult for centers to hold on, um, to that quality stable workforce that parents want and parents are looking for when they enroll their kids in care.

NIALA: So where does that leave parents and caregivers when we're thinking about how this is sort of a patchwork solution across the country?

DANA: I think that's right. I mean, both Republicans and Democrats I spoke to who see this as a crisis were quite frank that without a big sort of federal approach here, these are band-aids, that will probably not vastly bring down costs, raise pay, or increase supply, you know, but it didn't make it into reconciliation. So I think now the focus really has returned to those state houses to see how creative state legislatures can be and governors and how aggressive. 

NIALA: Dana Goldstein is the national correspondent for the New York Times and we'll include a link to her reporting in our show notes. Thanks, Dana.

Tennis great Serena Williams announces retirement 

NIALA: One final headline before we end today: Tennis great Serena Williams announced yesterday that she plans to retire sometime after the upcoming U.S. Open. Those of you who are close listeners know what a huge tennis fan I am, and I am the biggest fan of Serena’s, so I honestly don’t know how to sum up a career as storied as hers. She’s widely viewed as one of the best players ever, male or female, and when people say trailblazer, she and her sister, Venus, truly changed the sport for black athletes. In an Instagram post yesterday she said it was “time to move in a different direction,” and that she wants to focus on being a mom - her spiritual goals and discovering a different Serena. 

In a first-person essay for Vogue she wrote "If I were a guy, I wouldn’t be writing this because I’d be out there playing and winning while my wife was doing the physical labor of expanding our family,” and then she said “maybe I’d be more of a Tom Brady if I had that opportunity. "

Serena, thanks for everything, as always, we’ll be watching.

I’m Niala Boodhoo, thanks for listening, stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

What's in the most important climate bill in U.S. history

The massive climate, tax and health care bill is expected to go to the House for a vote on Friday

Climate change

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Former President Donald Trump said on Monday that the FBI searched his Florida residence at Mar-a-Lago. Two sources familiar with the matter told Axios’s Jonathan Swan that it was their understanding the search was related to documents taken from the White House -- documents that may have been classified.

Plus: a series of killings shakes a Muslim community in New Mexico. 

Guests: Axios' Margaret Talev; Gino Gutierrez, reporter for KSFR; and Samia Assed, Albuquerque resident and activist.

Murders of four Muslim men prompt New Mexico to boost police presence

Axios agrees to sell to Cox Enterprises for $525 million

Here’s what we’re following: a series of killings shakes a Muslim community in New Mexico. 

Plus, some close-to-home news about Axios.

But first, the FBI searches Mar-a-Lago. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: Former President Donald Trump said on Monday, the FBI searched his Florida residence at Mar-a-Lago. Two sources familiar with the matter told Axios’ Jonathan Swan, that it was their understanding the search was related to documents taken from the White House that may have been classified. It's a remarkable step without historical precedent. And Axios’ managing editor for politics Margaret Talev is here with this big story. Hi Margaret.

NIALA: What do we know about this search so far? The Justice Department does have several investigations ongoing involving Trump.

MARGARET: Niala I think it's really important for everyone to understand that we know actually very little about this search so far and what we do know, we know through the eyes, through the telling of the former president of Donald Trump in a very colorful, heated statement where he calls it a raid where he talks about safe cracking, where he tries to compare it to like a reverse sort of a Watergate. And of course this is ultimately part of a legal case or perhaps multiple legal cases. We don't know, precisely at this point what this search warrant was looking for. That's information that will become public over time. But we do know that upon leaving office, the former president was reported to have taken to his residence there in Florida to Mar-a-Lago, several multiple, uh, documents that had been classified and that the National Archives went down there to get. There are questions about: Did they remain classified? Why does any of it matter? Why does the public care? These are all big questions and we don't know the answers to any of these questions yet.

NIALA: Do we know then if this means federal prosecutors are getting close to an indictment?

MARGARET: We know that in order to execute a search like this, you need a warrant. In order to get a warrant, you need a judge. In order for that judge to sign the warrant, the judge needs to believe that there was a commission of a crime and that there either is, or was at some point specific documents or something, that was believed to be on that premise at Mar-a-Lago. That is, um, crucial information for and around that criminal case. That's what we know. And it's so inherently loaded of an issue politically. I mean, it has the potential to tear the country apart. It's not anything crazy to say that, we all know that. In order for the Justice Department to have taken this step, uh, there had to be very strong and clear evidence that they felt was necessary to pursue no matter the kind of shock value and implications involved.

NIALA: To your point, about the politicization of this, House minority leader Kevin McCarthy tweeted last night that the Department of Justice had reached a level of weaponize politicization. If McCarthy becomes the next speaker of the House, what does that mean for this investigation?

MARGARET: Well for January 6th investigations, the one that the select committee has been running will be over and, Kevin McCarthy, uh, left very little mystery about the warning sign that he hoped to send to the Attorney General, to Merrick Garland. He said Attorney General Garland “preserve your documents and clear your calendar.” And it's not just Kevin McCarthy. You're seeing this from Republican voices inside of Congress, outside of Congress at the national level, it's gonna become a litmus for the prospective theoretical ‘24 test, even though ironically, some of these figures are potentially going to be running against Donald Trump or trying to see who blinks first. And is Donald Trump gonna run again in 2024, but this is going to become the new baseline talking point for Republicans engaged at the national level.

NIALA: Margaret you've been covering Washington politics for your entire career. What do you think of this moment of the FBI executing a search warrant on a former president?

MARGARET: Although this is a historic moment and it feels like a turning point it is actually part of a larger moment that began on January 6th. That was the biggest pivot point in the moment that we are all still living in a year and a half later. But this has now a unique ability potentially to become fuel on the fire of divisions in this country. Divisions are already extremely deep. They're already two different camps in America in terms of uh, who they believe, what sets of facts people believe. There's still a significant percentage of Americans who don't believe that the legitimate results of the 2020 election are legitimate. But I think if you are the U.S. Justice Department and you believe that a crime occured, you believe that the information that's pertinent to that is at Mar-a-Lago what choice do they have but to pursue it.

NIALA: Axios’ managing editor for politics Margaret Talev. Thanks Margaret.

NIALA: In a moment, Albuquerque reacts to the deaths of four muslim men that may be related. 

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. Four Muslim men have recently been killed in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and what police believed to be a string of targeted attacks. The latest was 25-year-old Naim Hussain who was shot and killed late Friday night outside the funeral of two other men who had been shot in the last three weeks. Police have identified a vehicle of interest and are asking anyone with information to come forward. Gino Gutierrez is a reporter for KSFR based in Albuquerque and joins us now with the story. Hi Gino thanks for being with us.

GINO GUTIERREZ: Hello, Niala. Thank you so much for having me on.

NIALA: You know, the first murder police believe connected to this happened on November 7th, but the others just in the last three weeks, what do we know so far about why police believe these are connected?

GINO: So Niala, a lot of that has to do with the way that these victims had been murdered. Going back, you mentioned the first murder occurred in November. That was 62-year-old Mohammad Ahmadi, he was shot and killed, outback behind a market he had owned with his older brother. The second victim Aftab Hussein was shot outside of his apartment building. Same with the third victim, uh, Muhammad Afzaal Hussain was also shot outside of his apartment building. And then you have the most recent victim. He was actually killed in the parking lot of an organization that helps refugees and displaced individuals. The one key thing that law enforcement have really said ties all of these together is the fashion in which these men were killed and the locations as well. All of these men were killed in an ambush style. They were seemed to have been taken by surprise, and shot multiple times. And they also believe these men are being targeted based off of their race and religion.

NIALA: I mentioned police have identified a potential vehicle in connection with these murders. Where else does the investigation stand right now?

GINO: That's kind of the latest update that law enforcement has given us. That vehicle, that they're asking people to keep an eye out they described as a dark gray, silver four-door Volkswagen sedan. Uh, it did have tinted windows as well. A deputy chief for the Albuquerque police department did say that there could be some damage on the vehicle. Again, the way that these murders have been committed, it seems to be targeted. All of them are occurring in the evening where these gentlemen are kind of outside either on the cell phone or smoking, but the vehicle is kind of really the only lead they have, right now.

NIALA: Gino Gutierrez is a reporter for KSFR based in Albuquerque. Thanks Gino. We appreciate it.

GINO: Niala, thank you so much for your time.

Muslim leaders in the community have been responding to these attacks – urging people to not leave their homes, and to stay vigilant when they do. Samia Assad is a long time Muslim activist in Albuquerque.

SAMIA ASSAD: So many of the community left town. Uh, the other are, basically staying home fearful for, their life. I'm I had some of the young men tell me, they're afraid. They're somebody's looking through their windows. They felt that they would be targeted. We have to keep vigilant while persistent, in our, our right to exist safe in our communities. Albuquerque has been predominantly a warm and loving space for the Muslim community. It's a small community, a few thousand. Even though we're marginalized in number, we do not want to be marginalized as a community. And that the story in Albuquerque impacts the rest of the country,

NIALA: One final headline before we go: you may have seen the announcement yesterday that Axios has agreed to sell to Cox Enterprises for $525 million dollars. And we’ve heard from some of you asking if this will change anything for Axios editorially, specifically the podcast. And my answer is: absolutely not. There will be no change in how our newsroom and podcast will be run, Axios Today will remain as editorially independent as it has been, and we’ll keep bringing you the biggest news plus stories you won’t hear elsewhere just like we always have. Feel free to text me with questions and thoughts: I’m at (202) 918-4893.

The FBI searches Mar-a-Lago

Sources say the search was related to documents taken from the White House.

Donald Trump

Democrats on Sunday passed a sweeping $740 billion tax, climate and health care bill after 24 straight hours of debate. The Inflation Reduction Act includes lowering the cost of prescription drugs, raising taxes on corporations - and the largest investment in clean energy and emissions cuts the Senate has ever passed.

Plus: Why this weekend’s conflict in Gaza was different. 

Guests: Axios' Alayna Treene, Barak Ravid and Emily Peck. 

Senate Democrats pass $740 billion tax, climate and health care bill

Gaza ceasefire to take effect Sunday night

Remote workers pushed up incomes and home prices in these cities

NIALA BOODHOO: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

Here’s what you need to know today: Why this weekend’s conflict in Gaza was different. Plus, rents are skyrocketing everywhere. 

But first, today’s One Big Thing: a massive victory for Senate Democrats.

How massive of a win? $740 billion worth in a tax climate and health care bill that was passed after 24 straight hours of debate in the Senate. The Inflation Reduction Act includes lowering the cost of prescription drugs, raising taxes on corporations and the largest investment in clean energy and emissions cuts the Senate has ever passed. Axios congressional reporter Alayna Treene has been covering this weekend vote-a-rama. Hi Alayna.

NIALA: Even with everything I just said Alayna, this bill isn't as ambitious as Democrats initially wanted. So what did finally make it in?

ALAYNA: Yes, it's not quite the 3.5 trillion that was initially slated for the Build Back Better package. But this bill is huge and it really addresses the core priorities I think that Democrats have been talking about since Biden took office. $370 billion for climate change, that is massive. We have not seen an investment this large in clean energy in the Senate ever. It also allows the federal health secretary to negotiate the prices of certain expensive drugs for Medicare. That's including the insulin cap. They also wanted to have an insulin cap at $35 for commercial drugs but Republicans voted that down. There's also a three year extension on healthcare subsidies in the affordable care act. 15% minimum tax on corporations making 1 billion or more. There's more IRS tax enforcement and there's also 1% excise tax on stock buybacks. 

ALAYNA: Well, the bill is now headed to the House. They're expected to take this up on Friday. And it really is expected to remain intact. I think there's a lot of provisions that a series of democrats wish were in the bill that aren't in the bill, but by and large, they look like they're gonna hold firm in their unity on this and get this over the finish line. And then looking even further ahead, the midterms, I mean, this is, you know, three months now until the midterm elections and it's a huge win. Democrats have been desperate for over a year now to deliver on their main priorities and this bill does that. And so it's gonna be a huge talking point for them on the campaign trail. And for Republicans I think they're gonna argue that even though this is called the Inflation Reduction Act, they're gonna argue in the short term, you're not gonna see some of those benefits. And so it's gonna be a key messaging point as we move forward.

NIALA: Alayna Treene is part of Axios’ political team. Thanks Alayna.

NIALA: In a moment, Barak Ravid goes behind the headlines of this most recent conflict in the Gaza Strip.  

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today! I’m Niala Boodhoo.

Egypt announced a ceasefire late Sunday evening between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, ending an Israeli military operation that began Friday.  The fighting between PIJ and Israel resulted in at least 43 Palestinian deaths, including top leaders of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and at least 19 women and children.

Axios's Barak Ravid told me that the big difference this time though is the role of Hamas in all of this. I asked him to explain why.

BARAK RAVID: Well Niala you know when this operation started, it was after more than a year of the most quiet period in Gaza for a very, very long time. And the reason for this was a new policy by the outgoing Israeli government that decided to start taking steps to improve the humanitarian and economic situation in Gaza after years that one Israeli government after the other refused to do that. And the fact that 14,000 Palestinians in the last year came to work in Israel every day, this pumped a lot of money into the Gaza economy and stabilized the situation. And this is why when the Islamic Jihad entered this conflict, Hamas was just, you know, sitting on the sidelines issuing statements of support and I think that this had big influence on the fact that this of violence was relatively short.

NIALA: And so where does this leave Israel and Hamas now that a ceasefire has been declared between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

BARAK: I think that, uh, this situation actually, uh, creates this window of opportunity to continue stabilizing the situation. The question is, as you know, Israel is going for another election, the fifth consecutive one in less than four years. And, uh, the big question mark is what's gonna be the policy of the next Israeli government and whether it's gonna continue down this path.

NIALA: Axios’ Barak Ravid from Tel Aviv. Thanks Barak.

NIALA: The average rent in the U.S. is now more than $2,000 a month. That's up 14% in the last year according to Redfin. Some cities like Cincinnati, Nashville, and Seattle are seeing rent skyrocket by over 30% compared to 2021. Here's what some Axios today listeners have seen in their cities.

JUSTIN: Hi, this is Justin from Shreveport, Louisiana. We're only paying $930 a month right now. But since Roe has been overturned, we wanna move to Colorado same size, it's gonna cost at least twice as much. And even if we split rent with friends, we'd barely be able to afford it.

GARRETT: Hi, Niala. My name is Garrett and I live in Boise, Idaho. My rent increased $300 a month in the month of June, and I work for a local nonprofit called catch and we worked to house individuals and families who are experiencing homelessness. And unfortunately we're seeing more people than ever experiencing homelessness here in the treasure valley.

NIALA: Here to dig into all of this is Axios markets correspondent, Emily Peck. Hi Emily.

NIALA: Emily, the unfortunate fact is that rents are always going up, but what's behind this current surge in rental prices?

EMILY: Right. So I guess it's three main things. First is inflation is driving up prices for everything that includes rent. And rent prices are actually included in the inflation number as well. The other thing is pandemic migration patterns, a lot of people with more money left big expensive cities and went in search of cheaper rents and cheaper housing in lower cost areas, driving prices up there too. The third thing would be prices for houses have gone up. Mortgage rates are going up. It's hard to buy a house. So if you maybe were in the market for your first house to buy, you might be renting instead for a while.

NIALA: And so I wanna go back to what you said about the idea of people moving during the pandemic, because we heard something similar to this from one of our listeners, Amanda in Columbus, Ohio.

AMANDA: One of the reasons I've stayed here my whole life is it's a really cheap and good place to live, but the area has been outpacing the rest of the country in housing costs and scarcity. My two bedroom apartment in the suburbs has gone up almost $500 in the past six years. And now that my boyfriend moved in with me, we've considered moving closer in the city to be near his work. But what apartments we can find are anywhere from a few hundred to close to a thousand dollars more for the same two bedroom, apartment size.

NIALA: Is this because of more people moving to places like Columbus, Ohio, because of remote work?

EMILY: Yes, it is. That's what's happening around the country. Places that normally don't see a lot of rent inflation are seeing big increases because things got rejiggered during the pandemic. People in high cost cities left to live in lower cost places, and they bought houses in those lower cost places, or they rented apartments and that pushed up demand and it pushed up the rents that landlords charge.

NIALA: Are there any signs that these prices could ease anytime?

EMILY: Well, Redfin's latest report did show signs of easing, which means just that the rate of increases is slowing down. So it's not like the increases have stopped or it's definitely not like decreases are happening. It's just, the increases are less steep. It's kind of cold comfort.

NIALA: Thanks to all our Axios Today listeners who contributed to this. Emily Peck is a markets correspondent for Axios. Thanks, Emily.

NIALA: That’s it for us! You can always text me your feedback or thoughts to (202) 918-4893.

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow. 

Senate Democrats' massive victory

Senate Democrats passed a sweeping $740 billion tax, climate and health care bill.

Senate Democrats

Five states held primaries this week in a big test for Trump’s political power. In Kansas, the abortion rights victory is cementing Democrats abortion focus ahead of the midterms.

Guests: Axios' Margaret Talev and Josh Kraushaar.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez,  Lydia McMullen-Laird, Alex Sugiura, and Ben O'Brien. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Kansas referendum boosts Democrats' midterm focus on abortion

Today: an abortion rights victory is changing the game for Democrats. 

The new Senate landscape for November, that’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: Five states held primaries this week in a big test for former President Trump's political power. In Kansas, the abortion rights victory is cementing Democrats focus on abortion ahead of the midterms. Here's president Biden

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: The voters of Kansas sent a powerful signal that this fall, the American people will vote to preserve and protect the right and refuse to let them be ripped away by politicians. And my administration has their back.

NIALA: Axios’ managing editor for politics, Margaret Talev and Axios senior political correspondent Josh Kraushaar are here to talk about this week in politics. Margaret, let's start with the aftermath of that Kansas vote. How much does this victory for abortion rights give Democrats new confidence for November?

MARGARET TALEV: Niala, it gives them huge new confidence and I'll tell you why. This was an 18 point loss for the other side. This turned out long lines of suburban women voters, crucial in swing races. And what these voters were saying was that when it comes to an absolute, like a ban on abortion, which is what this would've paved the way for, that they were willing to turn out for a primary in a midterm year, when turnout is normally very low, near historic turnouts. That could have implications well beyond Kansas into crucial states that will decide control of the Senate that could pave the way for the 2024 presidential contests. We're talking about Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia. And these are all places where Democrats have worried about their ability to hang on. And now this gives them clear new reason to believe that they can message around something that's not inflation and that they can get their own party to be excited about turning out and swing voters and perhaps some Republican voters also turning out on behalf of Democrats.

NIALA: Josh let's talk about Arizona because the other thing we saw this week was how many Trump backed candidates did go through for the primaries.

JOSH KRAUSHAAR: Right. Arizona was the apex, the epicenter of the MAGA movement in that Republicans, almost in every contested primary, that Trump endorsed a MAGA candidate prevailed. Arizona is probably home to one of the more extreme Republican electorates, but the state itself is trending more to the middle. And Democrats hold both of the state's Senate seats and voted for Joe Biden, clearly in 2020. So it'll be very, very interesting to watch how these MAGA candidates do in the general election. Trump may have won the battle in the Republican primaries in Arizona, but the war between these candidates and, and Democrats in November might end up being more instructive.

NIALA: Right. So Josh, what does this look like in a place like Michigan, where representative Peter Meijer lost? Was that a surprise?

JOSH: It wasn't a huge surprise. Trump endorsed his, uh, challenger, John Gibbs who won narrowly in the primary. But again, Michigan is a state that's lean democratic in most of the recent presidential elections. So you're seeing a Republican party that seemingly hasn't learned lessons from the recent general elections where, you know, mainstream, moderate candidates on both, within both parties tend to do better than folks on the extremes. In Michigan, like Arizona, you have a slate of statewide officials. The Attorney General, Secretary of State hailing from the Trump wing of the party. Tudor Dixon, the gubernatorial nominee perhaps not quite as extreme, but on abortion republicans are, are already worried about her stance hurting her in a general election. So yeah, like in swing states where independents and moderates and suburbanites make the difference in close races, there's a real concern in Republican circles that candidates too far to the right, too extreme could cost the party winnable races.

MARGARET: Niala, the Tuesday night contest simultaneously empowered Trump again within his own party, kind of, they underscore his standing, his continued grip on the party, but it also ratchets up the stakes for the former president, right. If the midterms come and go and Republicans lose contests that they should have won because of the Trump back nominees that disempowers him. And so, what are November's contests gonna be? There'll be a battle for control of the House and the Senate, for sure. But they're also the prelude to the 2024 campaign that will start like literally weeks later. And former President Trump's standing inside what is expected to be a contested Republican primary, is gonna hinge very much on what his activism ultimately did to the balance of power for the Republicans.

NIALA: Okay, a quick pause and then we're back on a moment with more on this week in politics.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. We're talking with Axios’ Josh Kraushaar and Margaret Talev about what this week's primaries mean for Republicans and Democrats ahead of the midterms. Josh, so we expected Republicans to have the edge going into the midterms. Does this week change that? 

JOSH: Republicans still have the edge, especially when it comes to house races. The environment is tough. President Biden's job approval rating below 40% on average. The economy, inflation, still dominant issues. But in races where Republicans nominated candidates outside the political mainstream and abortion is one way that Democrats can highlight that point, they'll have a chance to win despite the unfavorable political environment for their party. The Senate races in particular are looking like real problems for Republicans. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell went on Fox this week and even suggested that Democrats could hold their, their Senate majority, which is something pretty notable, given that he's been more optimistic months past.

MITCH MCCONNELL: I think when this Senate race smoke clears, we're likely to have a very, very close Senate still with either us up slightly or the Democrats up slightly.

JOSH: There are other candidates in Arizona, Blake Masters, Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz, Herschel Walker in Georgia. All that have underperformed where Republicans should be performing right now in the congressional ballot in the polls. And abortion look is a key, key, key through line in all of those races.

MARGARET: History says that the Democrats are poised to lose the House. And there's nothing in Tuesday's contest that suggests that there would be that much of a sea change. The issue really is, and has always been control of the Senate. And after this past week, Democrats are feeling a lot better about where they stand.

NIALA: We're just a few months away from the November general election. What are you watching for in these next couple of months?

MARGARET: You know, President Biden has actually had a series of what in normal political times would be high profile victories, everything from the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri in recent days to some good economic numbers and the potential for a breakthrough with Joe Machin if Kyrsten Sinema goes along, on a deal for climate. But we have not yet seen the president really get a political bump, political credit for that. Abortion potentially could help turn that dynamic around. Democrats are looking for anything to turn Joe Biden's dynamic around and they're keeping him at arm's length in the meantime. You've seen all these conversations in recent days about would you support President Biden for a second term and many Democrats saying no, or like hedging, which is even worse than saying no. And what happened in the vote in Kansas on Tuesday is a potential game changer for a dynamic that has just been almost entirely negative up until now.

NIALA: Margaret Talev Axios’ managing editor for politics. Josh Kraushaar is Axios’ senior political correspondent. Thanks guys.

NIALA: One last thing before we go today – we’ve been collecting your messages about rising rents across the country.

GARRETT: My rent increased $300 in the month of June.

AMANDA: One of the reasons I've stayed here my whole life is it's a really cheap and good place to live, but the area has been outpacing the rest of the country in housing costs and scarcity.

NIALA: On Monday we’ll talk to Axios’ Emily Peck about the data and what’s driving this trend so keep sending your voice memos to us at (202) 918-4893. Tell us where you are and if high rent costs are affecting you or making you rethink where you live.

We’re produced by Nuria Marquez Martinez and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Our sound engineers are Alex Sugiura and Ben O’Brien. Alexadra Botti is our supervising producer. Sara Kehelani Goo is Axios’ editor in chief. And special thanks Axios co-founder Mike Allen.

I’m Niala Boodhoo. Stay safe and enjoy your weekend.

The new Senate landscape for the midterms

An abortion victory is cementing Democrats midterm focus

2022 elections

California is the latest state to declare a state of emergency over the monkeypox outbreak. The CDC says more than 6,600 U.S. cases of monkeypox have been reported since May, and as that number grows so does pressure for more government action.

Plus, back to school could mean disease outbreaks beyond COVID.

Guests: Axios' Tina Reed, Arielle Dreher, and Courtenay Brown.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez, LydiaMcMullen-Laird, Alex Sugiura, and Ben O'Brien. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Alternate monkeypox treatment caught in regulatory delays

Credit card balances grow at fastest pace in decades

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

But first, is it too late to fix our response  to monkeypox? That’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: California is the latest state to declare a state of emergency over the monkeypox outbreak. Earlier this week, the Biden administration named a White House coordinator to manage the federal response. The CDC says more than 6,600 US cases of monkeypox have been reported since May. And as that number grows, so does pressure for more government action. Tina Reed is a healthcare editor for Axios. Hey Tina.

NIALA: Tina monkeypox is rarely fatal in the US, but we know it can cause terrible pain for patients who contract this. Why are some people saying that government response still has been inadequate so far.

TINA: In many ways it felt like deja vu from the beginning of COVID. But what we saw was really a slow response and a lack of clear communication. It was very difficult to find testing and treatment data has been piecemeal. And then there's been this very poor coordination between local state and federal governments on this.

NIALA: And what's the situation with vaccines?

TINA: The story has been very different geographically. In some cities there's been very high demand for vaccines. For instance, in San Francisco, the San Francisco Aids Foundation Clinic, has a 10,000 person waiting list for vaccines as of Tuesday this week. However, our Axios locals team has also found that, in some states they really haven't asked for their entire allocation of vaccines and demand has been much lower. So it's been very different depending on where you are in the US.

NIALA: Tina, your team's also reporting that people are having trouble finding treatment when they do test positive for monkeypox?

TINA: Yes. So there’s still a lot of confusion among the provider community and a lack of clarity about where to get treatments. And so meeting the patient demand for treatment has led some clinics simply to just not offer care, uh, bouncing patients from clinic to clinic to seek treatment. There are patients who need testing and then treatment that are being to other providers and access to these vaccines has been pretty, pretty low once again in some places. And so it's been pretty difficult, for some groups to get.

NIALA: So far, the vast majority of these cases have been in men who have sex with other men. What are we hearing from advocates in that community about the response to monkeypox?

TINA: There has been a lot of frustration and a lot of comparisons back to the start of the Aids pandemic, where there was a lot of anxiety, uh, about the potential stigma and anti-gay stigma that may come with this. And just a feeling of of being second class citizens, if you will. Because there did fee, like there was a lack of urgency early on, with the response to this virus.

NIALA: So if this response doesn't improve, could we see this spread far beyond primarily gay and bisexual men who have sex with other men?

TINA: Yes. Increasingly experts are saying that that is a possibility and that the window of opportunity to contain this outbreak is closing or has already closed. A bright spot to this virus and the way it spreads is that it doesn't appear to be airborne. So it spreads much more slowly. They've said, this is not the next COVID pandemic. However, we know how tricky viruses can be and how they can change, and the fear really is that it could change in a way to make it more easily spread throughout the general population and that this disease will become another disease that's endemic in the US.

In a moment, vaccination rates lag for school aged kids. 

Students across the country head back to school this month. And while COVID continues, and now monkeypox is a concern, experts are actually worried about school outbreaks of other diseases, since childhood vaccination rates have lagged for things like measles and mumps. Axios’ Arielle Dreher has that story from San Francisco – hi Arielle.

NIALA: Arielle, last month New York State reported the first case of polio in the US in almost a decade. Are we starting to see outbreaks of other diseases that could have been prevented through routine vaccinations?

ARIELLE: I think there's definitely cause for concern. When vaccination rates lag, there's always that risk, especially when the disease needs a pretty high herd immunity to not be introduced. Pre-pandemic in certain communities, we saw outbreaks of measles and mumps in communities with lower immunization rates. I think measles is a good example. It has a really high herd immunity about 95% or above needed to keep it out. So when a case is introduced, when there's less than 95% herd immunity, you're going to have an outbreak.

NIALA: Do we have a sense of nationally what vaccine hesitancy or immunization looks like when we're talking about, for example, measles.

ARIELLE: We do. The American Academy of Pediatrics tracks this pretty closely. The percent of children 24-months old who have received at least one dose, for measles, they estimate that's about 92% to 94% and that's a pre-pandemic percentage. So again, I just wanna drive home that in these local communities in a local neighborhood, and even as local as a classroom, right, that herd immunity percentage is really important to prevent outbreaks.

NIALA: And what do vaccine levels look like? What happened during the pandemic to that herd immunity among kids?

ARIELLE: That herd immunity dropped significantly because a lot of people didn't get routine immunizations. Now on the other hand, kids weren't in school, right? So we didn't see as many outbreaks of measles, mumps and other viruses. And when they did return to school, there were a lot of mitigation measures in place like masking, sending kids home when they didn't feel good. Now with those mitigation measures going away, and as we start into the new school year, there's more opportunities for viruses to transmit and we've seen out of season outbreaks of things like flu in the Los Angeles school district recently, the CDC reported an outbreak there at a school event in May. These are weird, out of season outbreaks and experts expect us to see more of those in the coming school months.

NIALA: Are we seeing the same levels of vaccine hesitancy for the COVID vaccine, which was recently approved for children?

ARIELLE: COVID vaccines for kids still have really, really low uptake percentages. I talked to the national association of school nurses for this story and school nurses are getting prepared. They are preparing for outbreaks, as they have the whole pandemic. And in fairness to them with less mitigation tools at their disposal. The family physicians I talk to are concerned that some of these outbreaks of COVID in classrooms might be higher and affect more kids this time around if we're dealing with a really contagious variant.

NIALA: Arielle Dreher covers healthcare for Axios from San Francisco. Thanks, Arielle.

Credit card balances are growing at the fastest pace in decades. And that debt will get costlier for borrowers to carry, as the Fed raises interest rates. I asked Axios’ Courtenay Brown: what's going on here?

COURTENAY BROWN: So early on in the pandemic, something relatively unexpected happened. Consumers paid down credit card debt at a really, really rapid rate, which is something you don't usually see during a downturn, but they were armed with stimulus checks, which helped buffer their finances. What's happening now is balances are ramping back up to pre-pandemic levels and at a historically pace. The Fed tracks this data, and they said that last quarter credit card balances jumped 13% from the same period a year ago, and that's the fastest pace in over 20 years. So two things are happening that explain the really rapid rise. The first is inflation things cost more so naturally the balances would be higher. And consumers may also be leaning on plastic a little bit more to buffer the shock they're feeling from inflation. The second thing that's happening is consumers are opening credit card accounts really quickly, more than 233 million accounts were open last quarter and that's the most since 2008. And overall there are more open credit card accounts than ever before. One thing that's key to watch is whether consumers can keep up with their credit card payments as the economy shows signs of slowing and credit card rates go up. Delinquencies are still really low right now, but the Fed says that there are some early signs that borrowers, especially lower income borrowers are starting to fall behind on their payments.

NIALA: Courtenay Brown is an economic reporter for Axios.

That’s all we’ve got for you today! 

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

Can we still fix our response to monkeypox?

CDC: US reports more than 6300 cases of monkeypox since May.

Monkeypox

Kansas voters last night decisively rejected an anti-abortion constitutional amendment. It was the first time U.S. voters have cast ballots on the issue since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Guests: Axios' Oriana Gonzalez and Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian and NPR's Lauren Sommer.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez, Lydia  McMullen-Laird, Alex Sugiura, and Ben O'Brien. Music is composed by Evan  Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Kansas voters reject anti-abortion constitutional amendment

Fireproofing your home isn't very expensive — but few states require it

National Fire Protection Association — Preparing homes for wildfire

Pelosi to Taiwan president: "We will not abandon our commitment" to island

Here’s what you need to know today: how to fireproof a home. Plus, Taiwan reacts to Pelosi’s visit.

But first, Kansas voters weigh in on abortion: that’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: Last night, Kansas voters decisively rejected an anti-abortion constitutional amendment. It was the first time voters have cast ballots on this issue since the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade and the vote was closely watched for what it could tell us about broader American sentiment on abortion rights. Axios healthcare reporter, Oriana Gonzalez has more, good morning Oriana.

NIALA: There are a few other states that have put this ballot on the issue, but does last night in Kansas, give us a sense of where voters stand?

ORIANA: Yeah. So this definitely isn't the first time that a state has attempted to do this. We have to remember there are already four states: Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee and West Virginia that have amended their state constitutions to prohibit any protections for abortion rights. So Kansas would have been the fifth. So this election in Kansas sends a signal about how Republican and suburban women voters could choose in key states during the upcoming November election in the aftermath of the Dobbs decision.

NIALA: So how do abortion rights currently stand in Kansas knowing that Roe versus Wade does not exist anymore? And what would this amendment have done?

ORIANA: So in Kansas, currently abortion is legal up until the 22nd week of pregnancy. Before this Dobbs decision back in 2019, the Kansas state Supreme Court decided in a case that abortion access is guaranteed by the state's constitution. What the amendment would have done, and I'm quoting, it would have said “the constitution of this state of Kansas does not require government funding of abortion and does not create or secure a right of abortion.” So it's not an explicit ban or prohibition on abortion. However, it would have opened up the playing field for Kansas state lawmakers to introduce, pass and enact a abortion ban.

Kansas protects abortion rights in the first post-Roe vote

Kansas voters rejected an anti-abortion constitutional amendment.

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