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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Axios’ Jonathan Swan interviewed President Zelensky via Zoom, in an Axios exclusive. 

Plus, the U.S. is negotiating a deal among Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt.

Guests: Axios' Dave Lawler and Barak Ravid.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez, Alex Sugiura, and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! It’s Tuesday, May 24th.  I’m Niala Boodhoo. Today: the U.S. is negotiating a deal among Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt – we have the scoop on what could be a big step in the region. But first, today’s One Big Thing: Voldymyr Zelensky talks with Axios.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland with an appeal to business leaders.

PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY: It is necessary to set a precedent for the complete withdrawal of full foreign businesses from Russian market.

NIALA: Last night from Davos Axios’ Jonathan Swan interviewed President Zelensky via zoom in an Axios exclusive. World editor Dave Lawler was also there and joins me now from Switzerland to unpack what we learned. Hey Dave.

NIALA: Dave first, what was President Zelensky’s overall goal opening an appearance to the most powerful and elite folks in the world at this World Economic Forum. 

DAVE: Yeah Zelensky’s not here in Davos but he is very much the star of the show nonetheless. He had a couple of big messages, one was he wants maximum sanctions on Russia. He said that includes an end to all trade with Russia. So really considerably beyond what's happened so far. Uh and he also said he wants it to stay on the minds of the people who have the power to help Ukrainians, both from a humanitarian perspective you know, either people in government who or who can put pressure on government to continue to take the stronger steps that he says are necessary to put pressure on Russia.

NIALA: And that's also was the topic of a conversation that President Zelensky had with our own Jonathan Swan in an interview that happened later in the evening. And President Zelensky spoke about the possibility of meeting with President Putin. 

ZELENSKY: I think it will be more difficult to arrange any kind of meeting, uh, at the presidential level between the two countries, for the two countries. It is difficult because, um, uh, there is the line that can hardly be crossed after Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol and other towns and cities.

NIALA: President Zelensky speaking through a translator of course. Dave, what does this answer tell us about where we're at in this war?

DAVE: So President Zelensky has said consistently from the beginning of the war that he wants to meet with Vladimir Putin, it's been Putin who hasn't been willing to take that meeting. Uh Zelensky has also said that he thinks this war needs to end with the diplomatic solution. And so what Jonathan did and I think he did it quite well was to try to find you know what Zelensky’s actual position is here because he says it has to end with diplomacy but can he really sit down and compromise with Vladimir Putin after what's happened to his country? And he said it would be very difficult to sit down with this guy who ordered these attacks, um, that have killed so many of his civilians. He did say in the end that he would take a meeting with Putin, but only the two of them and only to sign a deal to end the war. He said he wouldn't meet with lower-level Russians and he wouldn't meet with Putin unless Putin was actually prepared to end this war.

NIALA: The other consistent message we've heard from the beginning is from President Biden, who's repeatedly said American troops will not get pulled into this conflict. But President Zelensky reminded Jonathan that if Russia were to win, the US may have no choice. 

ZELENSKY: And the US military will have to go to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. According to the fifth article, and they will have to fight them and die there. 

NIALA: So of course, that fifth article he's referring to is NATO. Could the idea of putting US lives on the line affect what comes next in this war?

DAVE: Yes of course and and I think there's two, at least two things going on here. One is Jonathan asked him about not just people like President Biden who want to support Ukraine with a lot of weaponry but aren't willing to send troops in. He was also asking about people who think this isn't our fight. We're sending $40 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine when we can't fund things at home. And so what Zelensky was saying, was that if Russia does succeed in Ukraine they won't stop there, they'll push on to NATO territory. That's of course speculation on his part. But Zelensky was saying that first of all we're fighting for things that you say you value, we're fighting for freedom and democracy so you should care about that. But you should also care because if Putin wins this war it's not good news for the United States and it could even bring NATO into a battle. So that's the way that he addressed that line of questioning from Jonathan.

NIALA: Dave, we know President Zelensky has survived a number of Russian assassination attempts, and he told Jonathan Swan it's almost become like the movie ‘Groundhog Day.’ He was scared at first and then it just keeps going and going. What was it like in the room when he was talking about that?

DAVE: Yeah, so picture a relatively small but absolutely packed room with a lot of Ukrainian nationals. It was uh an audience of people who were very much supporters of President Zelensky. And so when Jonathan asked the question, “how close did the Russians come to killin you,” there was basically a collective gasp in the room and Zelensky broke that tension by saying that, “yeah when they try to kill you the first, second, third, fourth time it's pretty scary, but eventually, you know it's just uh we know they're trying to kill me and they haven't been able to do it yet, so it's kind of repetitive.” It's difficult to necessarily get all the emotion of everything Zelensky’s saying when he's speaking through a translator, but if you watch him on the video, you know, he he's quite emphatic, he looks exhausted but also quite passionate about a lot of the things. Je's saying you know, you can see why he's such an effective communicator, but also there were places he did not want to go where Jonathan wanted to take him in the questioning and he's disciplined enough to not answer some questions that Jonathan put at him.

NIALA: Axios’ world editor Dave Lawler from Davos. Thanks Dave.

NIALA: In a moment, steps towards the biggest U.S. foreign policy achievement in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords.

Welcome back to Axios Today. I’m Niala Boodhoo. One more scoop for you today. Axios’ Barak Ravid reports that Biden administration has been quietly mediating among Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt on negotiations that if successful, could open the door to normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Barak Ravid joins me now from Tel Aviv. Hi Barak.

NIALA: Barak, tell me more about how important this is?

BARAK: The mere fact that Israel and Saudi Arabia are indirectly negotiating some sort of an arrangement in the region is already big news. Because Saudi Arabia for Israel, is always the crown jewel of the Israeli efforts to normalize relations with the Arab world. You know, Saudi Arabia is a very big Arab country. Uh, it has, Mecca and Medina, which are the holiest cities in Islam. So it's also the most important country in the Muslim world, not only in the Arab world. And some sort of an opening with Saudi Arabia, even if it's very little, will project to the entire Arab and Muslim world. This is why this thing is so important, even if the details are a bit hard to understand.

NIALA: Barak, as you said, it's in the details. And the details here involve the Straits of Tiran, which is a strategic sea passage. Can you explain why this is so important and how this could help open the door to negotiations? 

BARAK: This is a major, major, major trade route. And the Israelis want to make sure that when the islands, uh, are transferred from Egyptian sovereignty to Saudi sovereignty, the freedom of navigation will be maintained so that they won't have any problem, you know, sending Israeli ships to Africa and Asia. There was no deal yet, but the Biden administration hopes that it will manage to get this deal ahead of Biden’s trip to the Middle East that is planned to be towards the end of June. And if this succeeds, then it will be also very likely that Biden will go to Israel, and from Israel he will also go to Saudi Arabia. 

NIALA: You can read more—all of the details of this on axios.com. Barak Ravid is a contributor to Axios from Tel Aviv. Thanks, Barak

NIALA: That’s all we’ve got for you today! Text me your feedback and story ideas: I’m at (202) 918-4893. I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

Volodymyr Zelensky talks with Axios

Axios’ Jonathan Swan interviewed President Zelensky via Zoom in an Axios exclusive.

Volodymyr Zelensky

Axios Today

Podcasts

Ukrainian Corporal Andrii Shadrin and news producer Kateryna Malofieieva are at the heart of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Both are based in the Donbas, a region that’s been partially controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. The battle for the Donbas is critical to the outcome of this war. And in the meantime, Andrii and Kateryna’s families are being torn apart.

Plus, what waning homebuilder confidence tells us about the housing market. 

And, a wild weekend of weather with deadly consequences.

Guests: Ukrainian Cpl. Andrii Shadrin; news producer Kateryna Malofieieva; Axios' Dave Lawler and Matt Phillips.

On the front lines in Donbas: One Ukrainian soldier's story

Homebuilders starting to feel higher mortgage rates

Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks

Extreme weather plagues U.S., from Colorado snowstorm to East Coast heat

What we know about the new monkeypox outbreak

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

Today: what waning homebuilder confidence tells us about the housing market. Plus, a wild weekend of weather with deadly consequences.

But first, today’s One Big Thing: how the war in Ukraine is breaking families.

KATERYNA MALOFIEIEVA: The shell landed on the next street from them. And more than 17 people died and much more were injured.

ANDRII SHADRIN: When the soldier suffers and dies, it is sad, but it is a part of his job. When it happens to a civilian, that's insane. 

Those are the voices of a soldier and a journalist who’ve been at the heart of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian Corporal Andrii (Andree) Shadrin (Shaw-drin) and news producer Kateryna Malofieieva (mah-lo-fee-AY-va] are both based in the Donbas, a region that’s been partially controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. Axios’ Dave Lawler reports for the latest episode of How It Happened: Putin’s Invasion, that the battle for the Donbas is critical to the outcome of this war. And in the meantime, Andrii and Kateryna’s families are being torn apart.

I sat down with Dave in Washington D.C. recently and asked him how he found Andrii’s story.

DAVE LAWLER: We really wanted to access this place, but you know it's a hard place to reach we sort of friend of a friend we found our way to this guy uh who's not only on the front lines in the Donbas, he's actually from Crimea, which is another part of Ukraine that Russia moved into back in 2014. And he's actually been fighting this war for eight years. so he knows the place as a soldier, he's been fighting there. And right now you know he's facing some of the heaviest bombardments, the heaviest fighting of any of the Ukrainian soldiers. The thing that really stuck with me was how this war has separated his family. Uh his parents are Russian nationals living in Crimea, they are on the other side of this war and they think that he's been brainwashed now to fight on the Ukrainian side.

ANDRII SHADRIN: Unfortunately, that is a massive disconnect because I am a Nazi for them and I'm brainwashed with the propaganda. And I, I haven't heard it personally, but it was between the lines in the dialogues I tried to keep on with them.

DAVE: So that is an incredibly difficult thing to carry with you as you're fighting this war he's not in touch with his parents.

NIALA: Dave how have Andrii and his family moved so far apart on their views on this war?

DAVE: Sure so this goes all the way back to 2014 and Crimea is a part of Ukraine that has a lot of Russian nationals it's where the Russian language uh is quite heavily spoken. Russian media is really a very dominant source of news there. And so when Russia moved in to his hometown and to the peninsula where he lives and claimed it as part of Russia that's something that his parents were happy to accept. But him as someone who wanted to be a European who saw Ukraine as a strong independent country wanted democracy in his country uh he felt very differently about that obviously to the extent that he decided to fight in a war against the Russians. He enlisted in the military fighting against the country that his parents really feel like they're part of. And so they're very much on opposite sides of this war. For a while he was texting them once a week to say he was still alive. He told us those texts have stopped at this point. Um so it's really quite a tragic situation but I think it tells us a bit about what this war has done to this country.

NIALA: The other person you spoke to is news producer Kateryna Malofieieva. She also has had a very big rift with her family because of the war.

DAVE: Yeah and this is a physical separation so she's from Donetsk which is in the Donbas but it's also in the area that's been controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. Uh so she stayed for two years. But eventually she moved to Kiev and since that time she's been separated physically from her family. And unfortunately her mother passed away just a couple of weeks ago. And her father is still living there in Donetsk in a Russian controlled part of the Donbas. She's able to speak with him a couple times a week. It's not easy but they're still in touch but definitely the physical disconnect that this war has wrought between her and her family has also taken quite a toll.

NIALA: And then the other toll for Kateryna is her family that's in Russia. Let's hear how that's affected her.

KATERYNA MALOFIEIEVA: None of my relatives expressed any condolences to me when I lost somebody who was the most important person for me, my mom. They didn't even dare like, send me a message and say, “Katya, we are sorry for your loss.” So I blame them for that and I blame the propaganda for this. She's in the Eastern most part of Ukraine but most of her family is across the board in Russia. The distance is not that vast but obviously in the scheme of this war it's quite a vast you know gap between the two of them and you can kind of think about you know, how many families not only are they on two different sides of the front lines but also two different lines of the information environment here right. They're getting very different narratives about who's responsible for this war. Both think that there are war criminals here but they both blame the other side right. And yeah I think we can think about Andreii’s story, Kateryna’s story and then think about how many other families are affected in similar ways across Ukraine and Russia as well

NIALA: Dave Lawler is the world editor for Axios and he's hosted this season of How it Happened. He and Naomi Shavin did the reporting for this latest episode. It’s called The Fight for the Donbas and you can find it wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks Dave.

In a moment, we’re back with the latest on the real estate market in the U.S.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today! I’m Niala Boodhoo. An economy story you may have missed last week: confidence among homebuilders is almost at a two year low. Why does that matter? It’s another sign of the real estate market cooling as mortgage rates rise. Axios’ Matt Phillips writes the daily markets newsletter and is here with me in Washington, D.C. to talk about this. Hey Matt. 

NIALA: First, can you explain what home builder sentiment looks like now?

MATT: Sure. It's fallen sharply in the last month and it's down for about five months in a row. It's not at cataclysmic levels or anything,

NIALA: And we're talking about sentiment. So what effect does that actually have on the home market?

MATT: Well, there's kind of a feedback loop at play. It's almost more the other way. So as rates have gone up, that makes housing less affordable and effectively shrinks the pool of potential buyers that are out there. So if you're a home builder, you look at that and say, well, that's not good news for me. At some point over the next year, I'm going to see fewer people walking through the door. 

NIALA: That's because the cost of owning a home has gone up. Do we know exactly how much?

MATT: Well, I don't have the dollar figure but we do know that mortgage rates have jumped from about 3% to about five and a quarter, you know, in the last couple months, it's really a sharp move. And you know, that alone will add hundreds of dollars to your monthly payment easily.

NIALA: What else do we know about how the Fed's actions on raising interest have slowed, what has been a pretty red, hot housing market?

MATT: It has been really hot. But there is some anecdotal evidence that houses are staying on the market a little bit longer. We're maybe not seeing quite the frenzied bidding wars that we're seeing two to three months ago. So there's early indications that it is having an impact, you know, as, as it's supposed to, I mean, this is an intensional thing the Fed is trying to do. They're trying to slow, slow this runaway ramp in housing prices.

NIALA: Matt Phillips writes the markets newsletter for Axios. Thanks, Matt.

NIALA: Three more stories from this weekend, for you:

Anthony Albanese (Al-ban-easy) was sworn in yesterday as Australia’s 31st prime minister…the surprise win was marks just the fourth time a Labor leader ousted a Liberal prime minister since World War Two. In his victory speech, Albanese promised to make combating climate change a priority, something his opponent Scott Morrison had rejected. 

This Australian commitment to climate-conscious politics came as extreme weather spread throughout North America this weekend. In Canada, at least five people died after severe thunderstorms with winds over 80 miles per hour cut through parts of Quebec and Ontario Saturday. Hundreds of thousands more lost power throughout the weekend. And millions of Americans saw extreme weather conditions from heavy snow in Colorado and southern Wyoming to potentially record breaking heat in the Northeast. 

Finally - the CDC and health officials in Florida are investigating a potential case of monkeypox in the state. At least two other cases have been confirmed in New York City and Massachusetts. Though experts have said it would not likely cause a global pandemic like Covid-19, President Biden Sunday said the spread of the virus to at least 12 countries is something people should quote “be concerned about.” We will update you on this outbreak as we learn more. 

That’s all for today! I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

Each week on the podcast HBR IdeaCast, Harvard Business Review editors discuss the best business ideas with the world’s leading minds in management. It's like getting an MBA by listening. Get Harvard Business Review’s flagship podcast HBR IdeaCast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

How the war in Ukraine is breaking families

Ukrainian Corporal Andrii Shadrin and news producer Kateryna Malofieieva are at the heart of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

The Department of the Interior released a report showing that between 1819 and 1969, hundreds of Native American children died while in the federal Indian boarding school system. The probe takes a deep look at the systemic way in which the US government forced indigenous families to assimilate, often through widespread abuse. 

Plus, even as COVID cases rise, many Americans say the pandemic is over. 

Guests: Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Indian Affairs, Bryan Newland.

Hundreds of children died in Native American boarding schools, report finds

Axios-Ipsos poll: 1 in 3 say the pandemic's over

Senate passes $40 billion aid package for Ukraine

NIALA BOODHOO: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

It’s Friday, May 20th. I’m Niala Boodhoo. 

Here’s what we’re following today: as COVID cases rise, many Americans still say the pandemic is over. Plus, billions in new aid for Ukraine.

But first, today’s One Big Thing: reckoning with the forced assimilation of Native American children.

After almost a year of investigating federal Indian boarding schools in the US, the Department of the Interior released its first report last week showing that between 1819 and 1969, hundreds of Native American children died while in the boarding school system. The probe looked at the systemic way in which the US government forced indigenous families to assimilate, often through widespread abuse. 

To go deeper into the report and share what comes next we're joined by assistant secretary for Indian affairs at the department of the interior, Bryan Newland, who led this investigation. Thank you for joining us on Axios Today.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY BRYAN NEWLAND: Thanks for having me!

NIALA: This is part of US history that goes back for decades for more than a century. What's the goal for an investigation of this scope?

ASST. SECRETARY NEWLAND: Well the important thing that people need to know about this is that this report and the reason that we're doing it is not some just gratuitous look back at a painful chapter in history that we are living with the effects of these boarding schools today in many tribal communities. And so what we're trying to do is paint the picture of why these boarding schools existed, how broad the program was and their impacts on Indian people. And allow that then to point us in the direction forward.

NIALA: So let's start with some of this history with the aim as you said of understanding the present. The report lays out in detail how the US government saw these schools as a method of forced assimilation. What did you learn from this investigation about how these schools disrupted Native-American families and culture?

ASST. SECRETARY NEWLAND: The most enlightening thing to come out of the report I believe is why the United States pursued this policy of forced assimilation and why in particular it targeted kids for this policy. This was part of an overall policy goal of acquiring lands from Indian people. And the cheapest way to do that both in terms of money and lives that in the mind of the federal government was to assimilate Indian people so that we would no longer have a need for all of the lands that uh Indian people own and it would make it easier to acquire without going to war. And then the federal government quickly learned that it is far easier to assimilate kids than it is adults.

NIALA: The report contained a lot of photographs of students and daily life in these schools. Why was it important to include this visual evidence?

ASST. SECRETARY NEWLAND: I think it drives home the human impact of this policy. When my daughter looked at the report and I talked to her about it you know she was moved she's 15 years old. She looked at me and said “they're just kids dad.” And was certainly powerful for me and and and I suspect it is for other because it paints the picture of who the targets were for these policies and they're just kids. These are people's family. You think about leaders of of the federal government uh from the president on to cabinet officials and and agency officials. When you juxtapose that the power on one side and the fact that you've got kids on the other it's very and there's very little I could say in response to my daughter except just kind of nod my head. And so there's a sense of sadness for the kids who didn't make it home and also a sense of opportunity that this can be turned into something that makes a positive difference going forward.

NIALA: We started this conversation with you saying that we have to understand the effects that continue today. How do we still see these effects today?

ASST. SECRETARY NEWLAND: Well I think there's obviously a lot of social impacts in tribal communities that are I believe well-documented. Poverty all the things that go along with poverty. But culturally as well. And we saw this through the pandemic where tribes were working overtime to protect elders who spoke their language because there are so few language speakers left. They were very vulnerable to COVID which is also means the whole tribe is vulnerable to losing their language entirely. That's a direct out of these boarding schools. And that means your religious practices uh in your very identity really as Indian people. That's one of the untold impacts of these boarding schools is that the loss of language, the loss of cultural practices, the loss of siblings and parents, the intergenerational traumas and abuses that we've seen all affect people today. It goes to the heart of the internal tribal connections that Indian people have with one another.

NIALA: You said that you hope that this will lead to positive change. I know alongside this report Secretary Haaland is also going to be going on a tour of the country to meet with survivors. What is the Department of Interior’s role in helping these families?

ASST. SECRETARY NEWLAND: First there's the basic need for truth telling and healing. And there are survivors and families who who want and need to share their experiences. The healing process has to begin with that. In addition there's work that we want to do to build back up tribal languages. To support the tribes that are trying to revitalize their languages and their cultural practices and their connections to their homelands and to one another. And really that's a that's a piece of that responsibility that hasn't really been carried out with any consistency over the years. And so building back up what was torn down by these boarding schools is another way that we can help Indian country.

NIALA: Bryan Newland is the Assistant Secretary for Indian Affairs at the Department of the Interior. Thank you for taking the time to speak with us.

NIALA: In a moment, we’re back with three more stories you need to know as you head into your weekend.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today! I’m Niala Boodhoo.

A few other stories we’re watching on this Friday:

Covid is on the rise in almost every state in the US, with Maine being the only state to see a slight tick down. The CDC director is urging people to consider masking indoors. But a new Axios/Ipsos poll says one in three Americans say the pandemic is over.

A grand jury yesterday indicted the 18-year-old Buffalo shooting suspect on a first degree murder charge. Axios reports that the FBI is investigating the shooting as a hate crime and a case of racially motivated violent extremism. The suspect is being held without bail.

And Congress yesterday approved a 40 billion dollar aid package for Ukraine, to provide economic, military and humanitarian support. That brings the total US investment in the war to around 54 billion dollars since the war began. We’ll have some incredible new reporting and interviews about the war for you next week, so stay tuned.

To end on a happy note: thanks to all of you who sent in photos of your lawns that you are not mowing this month, for No Mow May – including a few from overseas! I’ve put a thread of just a few of them on Twitter – you can find me AT Niala Boodhoo.

Axios Today this week was produced by Nuria Marquez Martinez and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Our sound engineer is Alex Sugiura, who composed the music for the podcast Suave that just won a Pulitzer Prize! Congrats, Alex! Alexandra Botti is our Supervising Producer. Sara Kehaulani Goo is Axios’ Editor In Chief. And special thanks as always to Axios co-founder Mike Allen.   

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here on Monday.

Reckoning with the forced assimilation of Native American children

A probe by the Department of the Interior takes a deep look at the systemic way in which the US government forced indigenous families to assimilate, often through widespread abuse.

Native Americans

Title 42 is set to come to an end in four days. That's the pandemic-era CDC policy that allowed officials at the border to turn migrants and asylum seekers away because of public health concerns. But last month, a federal judge stopped the Biden administration from winding down this border policy and its fate is uncertain. 

For now, lawmakers, asylum lawyers, and non-profits along the border continue to prepare for the expected surge that would accompany the end of this policy, whether it happens next week or months from now. 

Plus, a Russian soldier pleads guilty to killing an unarmed civilian in Ukraine.

And, new research on COVID safety and outdoor events.

Guests: Michelle Hackman, immigration reporter for The Wall Street Journal; and Axios' Asher Price.

Judge grants temporary restraining order to keep Title 42 in place

Russian soldier pleads guilty to killing unarmed civilian

DHS preparing for violence following abortion ruling

It’s Thursday, May 19th. I’m Niala Boodhoo. 

Here’s what you need to know today: a Russian soldier pleads guilty to killing an unarmed civilian in Ukraine. Plus, new research on covid safety and outdoor events.

But first, the southwestern border prepares for an influx…that’s today’s One Big Thing.

Title 42 is set to come to an end in four days. That's the pandemic era CDC policy that allowed officials at the border to turn migrants and asylum seekers away because of public health concerns. But last month, a federal judge stopped the Biden administration from winding down this border policy. And its fate now is uncertain. In the meantime, lawmakers, asylum lawyers, and non-profits along the border continue to prepare for the expected surge that would accompany the end of this policy, whether it happens next week or months from now. So what actually happens along the border when there is a surge? And how are these groups preparing? To dig in we're joined now by Michelle Hackman, an immigration reporter with the Wall Street Journal. Hi, Michelle, welcome back to Axios Today.

NIALA: Let's start with what's happening in the courts Michelle. What did the ruling from this Louisiana judge say to the Biden administration?

MICHELLE: Yeah, sure. So there was this judge in Western Louisiana who oversaw the case from these, you know, 21 Republican states and basically, late last month in late April, he stopped the Biden administration from prepping to end Title 42. And that same judge, you know, indicated that he was likely to block the policy from ending altogether. He just didn't have the authority to do that until sort of, we got close to the date of it ending.

NIALA: And it's easy to lose sight of the fact that we are talking about people here. Axios spoke with a Texas Republican Representative Tony Gonzales. Let's hear what he had to say about the real impact he’s seeing with people in his district.

REP. TONY GONZALES: Last weekend it was over 102 degrees in South Texas. And people are being smuggled in trunks in box carts. People are dying every single day at the border from national guardsmen to everyday migrants, it's very sad and those are the stories that people aren't hearing.

NIALA: As we're thinking about Title 42 ending, what is the administration's plan to prevent this?

MICHELLE: There are sort of two different goals in mind, right? One goal is if you're expecting a lot of people to come across the border, claim asylum, which is the expectation, right? Title 42 prevents people from asking for asylum. And once you take it away, you know, it's expected that there's a lot of pent up demand. As long as those people are coming, you know, you have to treat it as an emergency event and handle it as best you can. The other bucket obviously is to actually try to slow down the number of people coming to the border. That has a lot to do with what's going on in Latin America, you know, economies are collapsing. There are dictatorships in several countries that have cracked down on their citizens. They claim that they're doing their best to work with sort of local governments, local organizations, to try to make the process of processing migrants as smooth as possible. So sort of the worst cases that sometimes you hear about on the news, you know, where like hundreds of migrants are dumped out of nowhere in these tiny towns, are avoided.

NIALA: One of those nonprofits is Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center in El Paso. And we spoke with its director Linda Corchado about how they've had to adapt to Title 42.

LINDA CORCHADO: We have been in a positive working relationship with CBP. At least in El Paso, there was a functioning border to some degree that was open to some asylum seekers.

NIALA: So if we're thinking about El Paso's port of entry, it processed more than 200 asylum seekers in one week at the beginning of the month. How has that been working despite Title 42 Michelle?

MICHELLE: Title 42, you know, is an international policy that the US is constantly negotiating with other countries. And one of the issues the Biden administration faced is that, you know, a couple months after they took office, Mexico basically turned around and said “enough, we're not taking everyone back anymore.” And they set limits on who they'd take back. For example, in a lot of places, they said “we won't take children back under the age of six.” In other places they said, “sorry, we'll only take Central American migrants, we will not take Cubans, we will not take Venezuelans.” So right now, if you're Cuban, you come to the border, there's no way you can get Title 42, because we have nowhere to send you. And that means instead you get to come into the United States, make your asylum claim. You know, this administration, approached organizations like Las America, in El Paso, and asked them to work with them, to identify what they describe as particularly vulnerable migrants. You know, someone who's LGBT, a migrant who's pregnant, for example, so that they could bring them through ports of entry and they've set up this whole system where they, they actually like COVID test people in Mexico and then they bring them across the border on buses.

NIALA: Michelle, we started this conversation by talking about the fact that Title 42 is likely to end at some point, right? Like whether it's now or months from now. Do you get the sense from all of these different groups that we've been talking about, whether they're nonprofits that work with asylum seekers or lawmakers or small town mayors. Are they prepared right now? And then what about if there is a surge?

MICHELLE: You know, what we've been dealing with over the last year would under, you know any circumstance be considered a surge already. The likely outcome of ending Title 42 is that for at least for a short time, the numbers would become even more elevated. The thing I will say is I don't think we're ever prepared. You know, when, when the surge actually happens, of course you can have done all the prep in the world, but, when you know, jails at the border get overcrowded, when you have tons of people, when you have a lot of people in really vulnerable situations where they might be over dehydrated, people are going to the hospital, unexpected things happen all the time. So there's no way to be totally prepared.

NIALA: Michelle Hackman covers immigration for the Wall Street Journal. Thanks Michelle.

NIALA: In a moment, we’re back with some new COVID research to help inform what events you attend this summer.

Although COVID numbers are on the rise nationally infection and death are still far below pandemic highs. And people are gathering again, both indoors and outdoors, but how do you know what the risk is of attending a gathering? Is it safer to go to a business conference with 3000 attendees or an outdoor festival with 50,000 people? Here to answer that question and explain why is Asher Price, a reporter for Axios based in Austin.

NIALA: So what does the data tell us about which of these events is likely to be a safer bet in terms of contracting COVID?

ASHER: Head to the outdoor festival definitely. I think this is the kind of thing that a lot of Americans are wondering about nowadays as life picks back up. And research out of the University of Texas suggests that, although the sort of hypothetical outdoor festival they studied was 10 times the size of the hypothetical business conference, the outdoor festival was going to produce only double the number of infections within the community, during and following each of these events. In some ways this isn't super surprising, but this sort of modeling team at UT has started to put numbers on just how much riskier,  still now, indoor events are than, than outdoor ones. 

NIALA: I don't know if the model looked at whether or not everybody was vaccinated, or if people had gotten tested beforehand, what do we know about how effective those measures are before people gathered together.

ASHER: Yeah, the, the researchers looked at a few different variables, for example, one of the interesting things the researchers found was, testing turned out to be more important than having proof of vaccination. So testing ahead of time, 48 hours, or even even better 24 hours ahead of these events, limited the number of attendees who had COVID from attending than if they required proof of vaccination ahead of time.

NIALA: Asher Price is one of the authors of Axios Austin's newsletter. Thanks Asher.

NIALA: A few more stories we’re watching today - 

A 21-year old Russian soldier pleaded guilty to killing an unarmed civilian in the Sumy region during the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. His war crimes trial in Kyiv is believed to be the first since the start of the invasion in February. 

A scoop by Axios’ Sophia Cai and Stef Kight shows the US government is bracing for a potential surge in political violence once the expected Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v Wade comes down. That’s according to a memo from the Department of Homeland Security that details how they’re investigating social media threats to burn down or storm the Supreme Court building as well as attacks on places of worship and abortion clinics. 

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

The southwestern border prepares for an influx

Lawmakers and non-profits along the border are preparing for the expected surge that would accompany the end of Title 42.

Immigration

The closely watched GOP primary in Pennsylvania is still too close to call this morning. And in North Carolina incumbent representative Madison Cawthorn is out for the 11th district. Those are two of the top headlines from last night's primaries, which were also held in Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon. 

Plus, the push for answers about the killing of journalist Shireen Abu Akleh

And, the case for letting our lawns grow wild

Guests: Axios' Mike Allen and Barak Ravid

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez, Alex Sugiura, and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach  us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Rep. Madison Cawthorn loses N.C. GOP House primary

Kathy Barnette's Senate campaign fizzles out

Doug Mastriano wins Pennsylvania GOP primary for governor

U.S. "deeply troubled" by Israeli police's actions at Shireen Abu Akleh's funeral

It’s Wednesday, May 18th. I’m Niala Boodhoo. 

Here’s what you need to know today: the push for answers about the killing of journalist Shireen Abu Akleh. Plus, the case for letting our lawns grow wild.

But first, today’s One Big Thing: what our biggest primary night this season tells us about November.

The closely watched GOP primary in Pennsylvania is still too close to call this morning. And in North Carolina incumbent representative Madison Cawthorn is out for the 11th district. Those are two of the top headlines from last night's primaries, which were also held in Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon. Here with how he's thinking about these results this morning is Axios co-founder Mike Allen. Good morning, Mike.

NIALA: Mike, first, last week you set up the big races in Pennsylvania for us on the Republican side for Senate, between Dr. Oz and Dave McCormick. Right now it's razor thin with ultra-MAGA candidate Kathy Barnette trailing, what does this tell us about whether or not MAGA has a winning formula right now?

MIKE: Well, it does, because that has been driving the conversation in Pennsylvania. But Niala, let's pause and say, this is a total surprise. Niala, look at these numbers with 94% of the vote in, Dr. Oz, Dave McCormick, each 31%. Listen to this - a difference of 2,700 votes out of 1.1 million cast. That's as close an election as you get in America.

Kathy Barnette, far behind they're 31%, each at 25%. She was surging at the end. Someone who was more MAGA than Trump's endorsed candidate, Dr. Oz. I can tell you Niala establishment Republicans in Washington, Republicans who think they're going to have a majority in the Senate, relieved that Kathy Barnette's out of their hair.

NIALA: What about on the progressive side? In Pennsylvania, we saw the more progressive candidate John Fetterman win. Does this line up with what voters are pushing for in other races?

MIKE: Yeah, so that's illuminating - Conor Lamb, more moderate, more Biden-esque, was someone who's gotten a lot of attention and funding. That race wasn't even close - 59%, 26%. John Fetterman, I can tell you is going to get a ton of media coverage, 6’8”. He's someone that the press is definitely drawn to.

NIALA: And in North Carolina, we saw the downfall of Madison Cawthorn. What's the significance of this loss for Republicans?

MIKE: Well, it just shows that a candidate can only sustain so many flaws and Madison Cawthorn, who was a rising star at President Trump's reelection convention. He was one of the key speakers and he'd been endorsed by President Trump in the past. This time, at the very last second when he was already in deep trouble, President Trump gave him a formal endorsement, but photos of him in lace on a cruise ship, lots of problems and lots of scandals all rushing out in the media. And I think there was a lot of people who thought that this youngest member of Congress by far just wasn't ready. 

NIALA: The $10,000 question, Mike: do we have a clearer sense of what the balance of House and Senate might look like after last night? 

MIKE: Well, last night is still kind of up in the air, but I can tell you that Democrats are more hopeful going to this election now that Roe is an issue. Republicans are going to try to keep inflation as the issue. Still very hard to see how you could make it work mathematically for Democrats to hang on to the House. Everyone on both sides expects a Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Republican House, but the Senate is very much in the balance. You could say that Republicans are favored to take it. But that's less sure all the time. We'll be able to say something more decisive about that when we have a Pennsylvania result. That's going to be awhile. 

NIALA: Axios co-founder Mike Allen, author of the AM newsletter. Thanks Mike. 

NIALA: In a moment, we’re back with what we know about the death of journalist Shireen Abu Akleh.

It's been a week since Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh was shot to death in the west bank. The Palestinian-American was covering and Israeli military raid on a refugee camp and witnesses say she was hit by Israeli fire. But there are still a lot of unanswered questions. Israeli police attacked mourners and pallbearers at her funeral over the weekend. And demonstrators around the world have taken to the streets to express outrage. Here to shed some light on this story and where it's headed is Barak Ravid, a contributing correspondent for Axios based in Tel Aviv. Hi Barak. 

NIALA: What do we know now a week after her death, about how and why Shireen Abu Akleh was killed?

BARAK: Uh, we know after the autopsy that Shireen Abu Akleh was shot in her head. But the main question is still unanswered. I mean, who shot the bullet. And the situation right now is that the bullet was recovered from her body by a Palestinian medical examiner. But the guns that allegedly were used by the Israeli soldiers who were involved in the incident are in the hands of the Israelis.  So this thing is more or less a situation where some people say the Israelis did it. Some people say, you know, Palestinian gunman were there, did it. And it's, it's very, I think, similar to the bigger picture of the conflict where both sides are not talking.  There's great hatred, great suspicion, and a total inability to even start a discussion.

NIALA: What is not in question is how the Israeli police behave during the funeral, which is under investigation.

BARAK: You know, it's very simple. Dozens of policemen were at the scene, allegedly to make sure that the funeral procession goes on as planned. And then when several people there took the coffin and did not put it in the car that was supposed to drive it to the church and started walking with the coffin the policemen just stormed them with batons and started hitting them in the legs and the coffin at a certain point almost dropped to the floor. It was it was a scene that, you know, I'm describing it. I'm just asking whoever listens now, just go and watch it. The only thing that you you can think about when you watch is what are they doing. Because this thing doesn't make any sense. I've been covering this for 17 years. I saw some crazy shit in the Israeli- alestinian conflict, but this thing I got to tell you, I've never seen. 

NIALA: Meanwhile, 32 journalists have been killed this year, doing their jobs, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

BARAK: Well, you know, I'm not the journalist who goes to war zones and, you know, I, I thought to myself, should I go to Ukraine? Should I not go to Ukraine? And I decided not to go and I really admire those who did go because you need to be on the ground to cover this thing. And it's the same way with any other a war zone. And, and by the way, this is why Shireen Abu Akleh was such an icon. You know, I met her several times in Israel and she's like this household name in Palestine and also among the Arab minority in Israel. Everybody knows who she is. She's the Clarissa Ward of covering the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And she lost her life, doing this and it's a great tragedy and it's something  that I think reminds us that this everyday effort of being on the ground and seeing things in your own eyes, this is something that without it there  won't be real journalism, And with it, there are great risks for our colleagues that are doing those things.

NIALA: Barak Ravid is a contributing correspondent for Axios based in Tel Aviv. Thanks, Barak.

NIALA: One last thing before we go today: if you’ve been noticing your neighbors’ lawns looking a little more unruly lately, it could be that they are taking part in No Mow May. That’s a campaign that encourages people to stop mowing their lawns this month to let plants  like clover and dandelions grow, to provide food for important pollinators. It was started several years ago by a charity in the UK and has since been adopted in the US and is growing in popularity. Are you letting your lawn go wild to benefit the bees? We’d love to hear about it, text me at (202) 918-4893 – you can even send me a photo.

What yesterday's primaries tell us about November

The closely watched GOP Senate primary in Pennsylvania is still too close to call this morning.

Primary elections

The deadly mass shooting in Buffalo, New York this weekend was live streaming on Twitch for two minutes before it was taken down. But the video of the shooting was easy to re-upload on multiple platforms, and has now been watched millions of times. The gunman said that the ability to live stream was part of his motivation to commit the crime. Should tech companies step up?

Plus, answers to your lingering questions about Roe v. Wade and its future. 

And, a fix on the horizon for the infant formula shortage.

Guests: Axios' Ina Fried; Shefali Luthra, health reporter for The 19th

Live streaming motivated the Buffalo shooter

Watch: A conversation on the cyber threat landscape

Roe is reshaping America’s political landscape

Abbott reaches deal with FDA to reopen baby formula plant linked to shortage

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! It’s Tuesday, May 17th. I’m Niala Boodhoo. Today: answers to your lingering questions about Roe v. Wade and its future. Plus, a fix on the horizon for the formula shortage. But first, today’s One Big Thing: how to end the live streaming of mass murder. 

How to end the live streaming of mass murder

The Buffalo shooter said that the ability to live stream was part of his motivation to commit the crime.

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Volodymyr Zelensky talks with Axios

How the war in Ukraine is breaking families

Reckoning with the forced assimilation of Native American children

The southwestern border prepares for an influx

What yesterday's primaries tell us about November

How to end the live streaming of mass murder

The racist conspiracy theory cited by the Buffalo shooter

The GOP-MAGA split

The desperate nationwide hunt for baby formula