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With the midterms less than four months away, Republicans are lagging behind Democrats in grassroots fundraising: In the 10 most competitive Senate races, Democrats are out raising Republicans by more than $100 million with small dollar donors.

Plus, police monitoring private surveillance video.

And, the House votes to protect same-sex marriage.

Guests: Axios' Lachlan Markay and Ina Fried

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo,  Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez, Lydia  McMullen-Laird, Alex Sugiura, and Ben O'Brien. Music is composed by Evan  Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

House passes bill to codify marriage equality with large bipartisan support

SF police plan to monitor video ignites controversy

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

Today: police monitoring private surveillance video. Plus: the House votes to protect same-sex marriage.

But first, the GOP’s losing battle for the small-dollar political donor… is today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: With the midterms less than four months away, Republicans are lagging way behind Democrats in grassroots fundraising. Democrats in the 10 most competitive Senate races are outraising Republicans by more than $100 million with small dollar donors. Axios political reporter Lachlan Markay is tracking GOP fundraising efforts. Hey Lachlan.

NIALA: Lachlan, why are Democrats appealing more to grassroots donors?

LACHLAN: You know, they've had more success at this small dollar fundraising for a while. We really saw it in the 2020 cycle. Their Senate candidates in particular were raising massive sums through donations of under $200. Republicans have seen some success there, in particular former President Donald Trump has been particularly successful in candidates who can successfully tie themselves to his brand uh, also do pretty well. But in general, Democrats are much more successful at courting that amount of small dollar support. The explanations for that can vary depending on who you talk to, but the most common one is generally that Democrats have just been a cycle or two ahead over the last 20 years in developing their digital infrastructure. And that's really where you see a lot of the most potent small-dollar fundraising operations.

NIALA: How are Republicans doing with big donors?

LACHLAN: So generally, they are raising way more money. You know, most of the biggest donors this cycle in terms of just the sheer amount they're giving are Republicans. Folks like Ken Griffin, Charles Schwab, folks like that are giving, you know, millions or even tens of millions of dollars. So they're out raising both of their democratic competitors. The RNC, the NRCC, the NRSC, they're all raising record sums. So when it comes to high dollar donors, Republicans continue to do very well.

NIALA: Lachlan, you mentioned former President Trump who has had quite a bit of success with small donations. How does that though fit into this midterm cycle?

LACHLAN: He's been extremely successful. He's raised, his political operation’s raised about 60 million in small dollar donations since last year. And a lot of Republicans worry that that's actually hurting the rest of the party's ability to fundraise this cycle. And in particular, the ability of candidates who are actually facing an election in November, unlike Donald Trump. You know, the tactics and the volume of his digital operation has really crowded out a lot of the rest of the Republican field.

NIALA: So Democrats appealing more to grassroots donors and raising more money from small dollar donors. Does that tell us anything meaningful about the midterm elections at this point?

LACHLAN: It's hard to draw conclusions in terms of voter enthusiasm, or, certainly, it's not a proxy for poll numbers or anything like that. But I think, you know, again, it goes back to each party's ability to build a digital and particularly a digital infrastructure, but really a larger political infrastructure that can harness this sort of force multiplier that is, you know, the small dollar donor program. So Democrats really have that figured out. Republicans have been trying to figure it out and they've been putting a lot of money into figuring it out this, this year and last year. These numbers just show they aren't there and, until they can sort of reach parody, it's gonna be really difficult, not necessarily for the national Republican groups, because they're doing, you know, very well from their larger donors, but for individual candidates, it's gonna be hard for them to compete in the fundraising game unless they figure that out. You know, every single election cycle we are in, sets a new record for the most expensive election cycle in American history. So, it only gets more expensive, you know, virtually every part of campaigning now is requiring significant sums.

NIALA: Lachlan Markay covers money and influence in politics at Axios. Thanks Lachlan.

NIALA: The House yesterday passed a bill that would federally protect same-sex and interracial marriages. The Respect for Marriage Act passed with bipartisan support, and heads now to the Senate, where its future is more uncertain. I asked Axios’ Andrew Solender for the big picture:

ANDREW SOLENDER: So this bill got support from 47 house Republicans, which is a significant chunk of the 211 member conference, which has historically opposed bills concerning LGBTQ policies such as gay marriage. But obviously the issue hasn't been tested since the Supreme Court legalized gay marriage in a 2015 ruling nationwide. Democrats now are trying to preempt, what they believe is a threat to same-sex marriage and potentially other rights by the 6-3 conservative court. And so, they're bringing this issue back to the fore and forcing Republicans to take a stance on it. Axios spoke to more than 20 Republicans last week and all of them declined to state a position. We'll see pretty soon whether the votes are there, from the relative moderates in the Senate, to pass this.

NIALA: Andrew Solender is a congressional reporter for Axios.

NIALA: In a moment: San Francisco police push to monitor private surveillance video.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. San Francisco police have proposed a plan to monitor private surveillance video from businesses and even people's homes. That's got critics up in arms about the privacy violations and the many ways these kinds of videos could be used. Axios’ Ina Fried has the story for us. Ina, first, I think it's important to note this plan isn't in place yet, but this is something San Francisco police are pushing for. So what exactly would this allow them to do?

INA: So San Francisco has an existing law that requires any city agency to come to the board of supervisors if they want to change or create a plan to look at surveillance video. And so, what the San Francisco police have proposed is pretty sweeping access to private videos. So this is cameras that neighborhoods have put in place, business improvement districts, as well as potentially the ring doorbell cams and the public-facing, street-facing cameras that many homes have. So what they're saying is we'd like to use that and they're not putting a lot of limits on how they might use it. Uh, the supervisors have to approve it and a bunch of amendments have been proposed that would limit how they use it, who they share it with, how long they keep it. But the proposal as it stands is pretty open ended.

NIALA: Have we seen similar actions by other police departments?

INA: It's a little unique in that twofold: one, they have to go to the city for approval, so they can't just do it. What we are seeing is a lot of police departments asking for that video, asking for ring footage for a particular case. The live surveillance aspect I think is one of the most troubling aspects, particularly in this case because when these cameras were installed, and I think this is instructive nationwide, when these business improvement districts installed these cameras a few years back, residents were actually promised that they would not be used for police surveillance.

NIALA: You know, there was recent news that Amazon, which owns Ring, recently has handed footage from ring cameras over to police without any kind of warrant. So is this already happening in some places and without people knowing?

INA: It is happening generally in much more limited circumstances. I mean, 11 times is alarming, but it's only 11 nationally. So police already can get access to various kinds of footage in, you know, extremely urgent situations where life is at stake. Critics say, they're the ones who decide that, there's no oversight, so there's problems there. But this would allow it on a much more routine and sweeping basis. 

NIALA: What other kind of efforts are we seeing to curb this kind of surveillance then?

INA: One of the things we're seeing is a push for national legislation. Right now, there is no federal legislation particularly covering facial recognition, but also around surveillance video around how it can be collected, how it can be shared. And this growing divide between the owner not having anything to do with the people being captured. So maybe I get the owner's consent, but that's not the people who are on the tape, and that's increasingly true. If you look at something like autonomous vehicles, for example, which sounds totally unrelated until you realize that these cars have tons of cameras and are recording everything around them. Now they need that to do their job, but privacy advocates would say there also need to be strict limits that keep it from being turned into surveillance 24/7 rolling around your neighborhood.

NIALA: Ina Fried is Axios’ chief technology correspondent. Thanks Ina.

NIALA: That’s it for us today! I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

The GOP’s losing battle for grassroots donors

Republicans are behind in grassroots fundraising

Republicans

Axios Today

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We’re struggling at once with high inflation in the U.S. -- and the possibility of a recession. And some economists are arguing that the steps being taken to ease inflation could actually cause a recession. And would that be even worse?

Plus: how the end of Roe v. Wade may overwhelm foster care systems. 

And: a warning that we face “collective suicide” by climate change.

Guests: Axios' Emily Peck and Russell Contreras. 

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Alex Sugiura, and Ben O'Brien. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

End of Roe v. Wade may overwhelm foster care systems

Europe heat wave turns deadly as France and U.K. brace for hottest days on record

Here’s what you need to know today: how the end of Roe v. Wade may overwhelm foster care systems. Plus, a warning that we face “collective suicide” by climate change.

First: inflation is bad - but a recession could be worse. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: We're struggling with two things right now, high inflation and the possibility of a recession. And some economists are arguing that the steps being taken to ease inflation could actually cause a recession, and would that be even worse? Axios’ Emily Peck joins us now with the big picture. Hey Emily.

NIALA: Emily, we had Neil on last week and of course the headline was how bad inflation is. So is it too soon to say that we're seeing signs of inflation easing, especially given what we saw last week?

EMILY: So Neil, as he always is, is right. Inflation is terrible and it's bad and the numbers we saw last week were horrible. But yes, there are a few signs that relief could be in sight. The prices that companies pay for commodities like lumber are coming down. If you drive, you know that gas prices have come down quite a bit over the past month. Those changes weren't reflected in the numbers that we saw last week. Those were June numbers. It's July now. These are signs possibly, that inflation will ease a little bit. But of course, as I said before, Neil is correct. Inflation is quite bad.

NIALA: So Emily, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to tamp down inflation. Do economists think we have time for the Fed to take more of a wait and see approach to see if what they've done so far is working?

EMILY: So, I mean, what the Federal Reserve is trying to do, like big picture zoom out, is to cool off demand and slow down the economy, less demand, prices should moderate. You do that too much, you cool off demand too much, and what happens is you trigger a downturn, a slowdown, a recession. And a recession is not good, Niala. So all eyes really are on the Federal Reserve next week when they're expected to announce another rate increase probably of at least 0.75 percentage points.

NIALA: Right, so how much worse is a recession for everyone versus high inflation?

EMILY: I mean, this is the crux of the controversy. The economists that I spoke to who tended to be on the progressive side, they say a recession would be worse. It would throw a lot of people out of work. Even those who didn't lose their jobs would lose a lot of the leverage, you're less likely to get a raise. You, maybe you can't switch jobs as easily anymore. For college graduates and people trying to enter the workforce, you know, there's less opportunity. And that kind of downturn in a recession can have long lasting scarring effects.

NIALA: What are economists and what are businesses thinking now when they are polled about the likelihood of a recession? Has that thinking changed at all over the past couple of weeks?

EMILY: It's really all over the place. I get a lot of notes in my inbox where experts are saying there's a 50% chance of recession, which, I mean, there's not much you can do with that. If someone tells you there's a 50% chance of rain, what do you do? Do you take an umbrella or not? No one really knows what's going to happen is the honest truth. I know you're not supposed to say that as a markets reporter, but the more rate hikes we see, I think the more danger of triggering a recession we're in.

NIALA: Emily Peck co-writes the Axios Markets newsletter. Thanks, Emily.

NIALA: Back in a moment with how the end of Roe V. Wade could bring things from bad to worse for foster care systems.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. Underfunded, overstressed US foster care systems could be facing more pressure from the overturning of Roe V. Wade. The 400,000 plus kids currently in foster care already face a shortage of placements, low high school graduation rates and disproportionately high rates of incarceration and homelessness. Here to dig deeper is Axios’ justice and race reporter Russell Contreras. Hey Russ.

RUSSELL CONTRERAS: Thanks for having me. 

NIALA: Russ, I think we need to start with you explaining how the overturning of Roe could result in more kids in the foster care system.

RUSSELL: In states that have now outlawed abortion in a post-Roe world, you may see women being forced to bring their pregnancy to term. That means that the children could be facing either adoption or foster care. Now we know statistically that if someone is forced to bring a pregnancy to term, they may not give up their child for adoption immediately. However, a state can take away a child if you cannot afford to keep that child. That is, people can come into a situation and see they're struggling with poverty and hunger and the state could take them away. Now you have toddlers and older kids in a system that can barely find homes for them. Also, we have to keep in mind that children that end up in the foster system later have a hard time finding homes, either temporarily or permanently. And what we know, the children that age out of the foster care system, without finding permanent homes, they struggle with getting jobs, less than 5% go to college. And statistically, according to various studies, many of them end up with addiction problems, they end up homeless, or they end up interacting with the criminal justice system.

NIALA: What is the current state of the foster care system across the US?

RUSSELL: Right now because of surges and drug addiction by biological parents, foster care systems have been overwhelmed. They've been struggling with capacity issues, putting children in emergency shelters, hotels, out-of-state institutions and youth prisons. In one system in Virginia, the state is having to force children to sleep in state government offices due to a shortage of foster homes. In places like Illinois, the director of the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services has faced nine contempt charges for failing to comply with court orders around the placement of children. So overwhelmingly across the country, states are struggling with their current foster care systems and finding homes and finding safe environments for children. This is about to get worse, according to some experts.

NIALA: What efforts are we seeing to shore up these systems or better protect these children?

RUSSELL: Right now states are struggling. Some anti-abortion advocates are saying they will set up structures, religious-based structures, to find homes for children's and saying they will, provide care for free. You know, there is a group called the Christian Alliance for Orphans. And there are programs like Jonah's Journey or Together for Good. They provide free volunteer foster care system. And I've seen a number of others pop up here and there. But the reality is, without an influx of new money, of new strategies and new plans, these overwhelmed systems today that can barely survive, they're going to be, see more pressures, they're gonna see a lot of new influx of children and these systems right now are surviving on rusted nails, old rope, warp screws. If you add any more pressures to these systems, they're gonna explode and we may not see the hard effects of this explosion for decades, but we will feel it.

NIALA: Russell Contreras is the justice and race reporter at Axios. Thanks Russell.

ANTONIO GUTERRES: “We have a choice. Collective action or collective suicide. It is in our hands.”

NIALA: United Nations secretary general António Guterres talking about what he called “the climate emergency” at a conference yesterday – the same day that parts of Europe saw unprecedented heat. Temperatures hovered around 100 degrees fahrenheit in the UK on Monday, shutting down much of the country - even the British Museum. A Met office meteorologist in his report used a new shade of red on his map, saying Britain had never seen temperatures that high. In France some areas also saw record-breaking heat, with at least one town reaching over 108 degrees fahrenheit and today is forecast to be even hotter.

That’s it for us today. Remember you can reach me and the team at podcasts at axios dot com or you can text me at (202) 918-4893.

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

Inflation is bad…a recession is worse

Some economists are arguing that the steps being taken to ease inflation could actually cause a recession.

Inflation

France and the U.K. are facing record-high temperatures this week, in what’s shaping up to be one of the worst heat waves on record in western Europe. And a wildfire crisis has caused thousands to evacuate parts of Spain, Portugal and France. 

Plus: watching a political realignment in real time. 

And: how swing state voters feel about Trump’s role in the January 6th riot.

Guests: Axios' Andrew Freedman and Josh Kraushaar.

Historic heat wave, wildfires hit Europe as temperatures climb in U.S.

Focus groups: Wisconsin swing voters say Trump guilty for Jan. 6

NIALA BOODHOO: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

It’s Monday, July 18th. I’m Niala Boodhoo. 

Today: watching a political realignment in real time. Plus, how swing state voters feel about Trump’s role in the January 6th riot.

But first, historic heat in Europe is today’s one big thing.

NIALA: France and the UK are facing record high temperatures this week in what's shaping up to be one of the worst heat waves on record in Western Europe. And a wildfire crisis has caused thousands to evacuate Spain, Portugal and France. Here to provide some context on all of this is Axios climate reporter, Andrew Freedman. Hi, Andrew.

ANDREW FREEDMAN: Hi there. Thanks for having me.

NIALA: Andrew, it seems like Europe has these kinds of heat waves every summer, but I was checking the forecast for London this week and it's mind boggling to me. It's supposed to be 101 degrees Fahrenheit there tomorrow?

ANDREW: Yeah the forecast for the UK is actually unprecedented. Everything that I'm seeing in these computer models, showing in the weather forecast for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday in parts of Europe, they're printing out something that just hasn't happened before and we have to be more ready for these types of situations. And one of those responses is what the UK did on Friday, which was making that decision to raise the alert level to a national emergency.

NIALA: And Andrew of course, the big difference between here and Europe is air conditioning, which is not very common. So given that, what is the public health threat with this extreme level of heat?

ANDREW: So the public health threat in Europe is really acute. I would say that judging from past heat waves, as recently as the Pacific Northwest heat wave of last year, we're looking at the likelihood of several thousand deaths as a result of this event, both in the UK, France, as well as several other countries.

NIALA: What about these wildfires? I mentioned at the beginning that thousands of people have been evacuated. Are people also in danger of losing their homes?

ANDREW: There are homes that are in danger. Some of these fires are in the vicinity of popular tourist areas, in, uh, Malaga, Spain, the Bordeaux region of France. Some other areas of Portugal. These are being seen by people. These are being felt by people in terms of the evacuation requirements. There's a drought going on at the same time as the heat. So they expected a a harsh wildfire season. They didn't expect this.

NIALA: Travel has already been a nightmare in Europe this summer. How will all of this make this worse?

ANDREW: So the heat will, uh, disrupt the rail travel networks, especially in Spain, France, the UK, uh, because railroad tracks and heat don't mix well. They can be weakened. They can be warped, and trains have to slow down. There is also a problem, which actually happened to the vice president's plane, in Chicago a couple weeks ago where aircraft can sink into hot pavement. So there could be air travel delays. There could be rail delays and bus networks maybe disrupted a little bit too by this.  

NIALA: Andrew, one recent study says that European heat waves have been more common than in other parts of the world. Why is that?

ANDREW: So that particular study, that came out earlier this month, looked at configurations of the jet stream. And sometimes when the jet stream splits into two of these streams downwind of Europe. you can get stuck weather patterns, which lead to, uh, high pressure systems, also known as heat domes, and when they sit over an area for a long period of time, they can build up that heat degree by degree by degree. As the air sinks in the atmosphere, it discourages any precipitation. And then if you look at what's driving those jet stream ties, you start to come to the suspect of climate change.

NIALA: Andrew Friedman is a climate and energy reporter for Axios. Thanks Andrew.

NIALA: In a moment: a seismic shift for Democrats. 

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. The Democratic electorate is changing. Democrats now have a bigger advantage with white college graduates than with non-white voters according to recent New York Times-Siena College poll. And as Axios senior politics reporter Josh Kraushaar reports, the identities of both parties are shifting in real time. Hey Josh, welcome to the podcast and to Axios.

JOSH KRAUSHAAR: Thanks Niala. It's really exciting to, to be here on, on my first episode.

NIALA: So in your reporting, you say we're watching in real time one of the biggest political stories of all time and that's a political realignment. How so?

JOSH: Yeah, well, the diversity and the changing makeup of both parties has been happening slowly but surely over the last five or six years. I think the larger point that we're seeing in some of the new polling is that the democratic party has alienated a lot of their core voters. These are voters, by the way, that were making up a critical part of their their constituency. They were winning overwhelming shares, certainly of Black voters, Hispanic voters, Asian-Americans in, in the last few elections. But what we've seen in 2020, and what we've seen in polling since then, is that non-white working class voters have been alienated from the democratic party and in some cases have moved towards the Republican party. In fact, just an election this past month in Texas on, on the, Mexico border, a district that overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, it voted a Republican, uh, Mayra Flores, to the Congress in a district that's still voted for Joe Biden in the last election. Um, so that, that's an example of just how significant, how seismic these shifts have taken place in parts of the country in the last six or so years.

NIALA: So we are talking about alienation because of politics, but how much is the economy and inflation and the current economic situation going to play a role in this calculus as well.

JOSH: Undeniably that is, the economy inflation, that is the number one issue for all voters, but particularly voters, you know, more middle class, more, more working class backgrounds. The New York Time-Siena poll actually had an interesting finding in that wealthier whiter voters had the luxury of, of, of focusing on other issues like gun control, abortion rights, and so on very important issues, but they, they disproportionately ranked those issues more than everyone else. Whereas the economy was far and away, the inflation was far and away that the top issue among most Americans and look, like when you have people struggling to make ends meet, when you know, inflation is really cut into the gas prices, grocery prices cut into people's paychecks, that is ultimately gonna be the driving force. I think a lot of working class Americans are, are feeling the pinch and they're blaming the party and power for it and that's driving the Republican momentum among non-white groups.

NIALA: So this is all polling. How are we likely to see this play out in November and the midterms?

JOSH: One thing I'm, I'm keeping a close eye on is the number of non-white candidates running on the Republican side. Hispanic candidates in particular. Republicans have earned this reputation of just being the candidate of, of white men, that they don't have a very diverse lineup of candidates. And, and frankly that that's a big, big political handicap. In 2022, like they've learned their lesson and they've internalized it. And you see, you know, they're at least, I think like half dozen Latinas running in swing districts, three in Texas, one in Virginia. They have a much more diverse recruiting class than I've seen in quite some time. They also are running in districts that are more diverse than before. So some of the more affluent suburban districts that used to be the big battlegrounds in the house are out of reach are not quite as competitive, but a lot of the more diverse districts that may be a little bit more middle class, those are the types of districts that are growing more competitive and growing very winnable for the Republican party.

NIALA: Josh Kraushaar is a senior politics reporter with Axios. Thanks Josh.

NIALA: Before we go, one more political story that caught our eye this weekend: 

In the latest focus group from our partners at Engagious/Schlesinger, 10 out of 14 swing voters in Wisconsin said former President Trump should be prosecuted for trying to overturn the 2020 election, and for his role in the attack on the Capitol. Last month, a similar focus group found 10 of 13 Arizona swing voters said the same. As Axios’ Alexi McCammond writes, this suggests the January 6 hearings are resonating with some voters who once backed the former president. We’ll put a link to Alexi’s story in our show notes - and – another primetime hearing is scheduled for this Thursday. 

Historic heat in Europe

Western Europe is facing one of the worst heat waves on record alongside wildfires this week.

Heat waves

President Biden escaped his low approval ratings here in the U.S., this week, with a warm welcome in Israel – kicking off a trip to the Mideast to meet with nearly a dozen leaders. It’s Biden’s first trip to the region since taking office, after campaigning on promises like holding Saudi Arabia accountable for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and reviving the Iran nuclear deal. 

Plus: the rollout of a new national suicide hotline number. 

Guests: Axios' Barak Ravid and Adriel Bettelheim

Scoop: Israel OKs Red Sea islands deal, paving way for Saudi normalization steps

Biden: U.S. is "not going to wait forever" for Iran on nuclear deal

New 988 suicide hotline goes live July 16

If you or someone you know may be considering suicide, contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-8255 (En Español: 1-888-628-9454; Deaf and Hard of Hearing: dial 711 then 1-800-273-8255) or the Crisis Text Line by texting HOME to 741741.

Here’s what you need to know today: the rollout of a new national suicide hotline number. 

But first, today’s One Big Thing: high stakes for Biden’s Mideast trip.

President Biden escaped his low approval ratings here in the US this week with a warm welcome in Israel, kicking off a trip to the Mideast to meet with nearly a dozen leaders. It's Biden's first trip to the region since taking office after campaigning on promises like holding Saudi Arabia accountable for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Axios’ Barak Ravid joins us now from Tel Aviv. Hey Barak. 

NIALA: So President Biden actually went viral during this trip with a video from his visit to Yad Vashem, the Holocaust Memorial. How has he been received? 

BARAK: Well, it's Biden's 10th trip to Israel. He knows so many people here. And a few days before he traveled to Israel, an acquaintance of mine had a conversation with him and he asked him, “President, what's your goal from this trip?” And he said, “You know, I just want the Israeli people to know how much I love them. And I think it's been achieved because from the minute he landed in Israel, like the first thing he said, President Herzog on the tarmac was, “Oh man, I really feel at home.” And then he went to Yad Vashem and met two Holocaust survivors. And he was walking towards them and they were sitting on chairs. So they stood up and he just told them, “No, no, no, no, no, sit down.” And when he got to their chairs, he went down on his knees and started talking to them and it was really an amazing sight, when you think about it: the leader of the free world, bending down to talk with two Holocaust survivors – and it went viral on social media and I think that basically on day one, he already achieved what he wanted on the Israel part of this trip.

NIALA: But of course there are many more parts to this trip – you actually had a scoop on the next leg of his trip, you've told us before about the U.S. quietly negotiating a deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. What have we learned?

BARAK: The Israeli government approved the parameters of this deal on the two strategic islands in the Red Sea and this deal is important because this is the foundation that the Saudis are supposed to take unprecedented normalization steps towards Israel. It is significant because there was never any deal, or any even like understanding between Israel and Saudi Arabia and if everything will fall into place, this will be quite a big achievement.

NIALA: Biden has had strong words about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, promising to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah,” over its human rights abuses, including this murder, but Biden is visiting the kingdom as part of this trip. What are we expecting Biden to say?

BARAK: I think that in the last 18 months, Saudi Arabia was quite a pariah in Washington. And what happened was, the Russian invasion of Ukraine this led to gas prices and oil prices going up. This, I think, led the administration to understand that it needs to counter Russia not only in Ukraine, but in other parts of the world. It's also connected to domestic issues in America because when oil prices are high, gas prices are high. And the economy is always a big issue in an election and one other thing is to get oil prices down and to do that, you need Saudi Arabia. I don't think Biden changes mind about the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman or about Saudi Arabia in general but at the end of the day, it's a really high stakes visit in Saudi Arabia.

NIALA: Barak, you and I are talking Thursday evening, Tel Aviv time - President Biden is headed to East Jerusalem today without any Israeli officials?

BARAK: Israeli officials won't be there. Although the U.S., the Biden administration did not roll back Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital, but it's a sort of a signal that the Biden administration is taking a more vague position on where exactly in Jerusalem they think that Israel has, has its sovereignty. And Biden when he came into office, he basically made it clear and he made it clear again when he arrived in Israel, that he doesn't think that an Israeli, Palestinian peace agreement at the moment is something which is feasible and therefore he's not gonna put forward any peace plan. And for the Palestinians, I think that's a big disappointment but as a whole, I think the Palestinian expectations from this visit are very, very low.

NIALA: Barak Ravid is a contributing correspondent for Axios based in Tel Aviv. Thanks Barak.

NIALA: In a moment: this weekend’s transition to a new national suicide hotline.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. Starting tomorrow, the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline will transition to a new three digit number - 988. The new number is meant to expand access to mental health resources and make it easier for people in crisis to get help. But there's still a lot of questions about whether states are prepared for this launch. Adriel Bettelheim is Axios’ senior healthcare editor, and joins me now with the details. Hi, Adriel.

NIALA: How will this new number change how people access mental healthcare? 

ADRIEL: Well, it's kind of like creating a 911 for the mental health crisis and is in theory, supposed to funnel calls into local crisis hotlines where there are trained counselors or people who can immediately intervene or make referrals. And, you know, at least in theory, they're supposed to know what resources are there in the community.

NIALA: You're saying in theory, do you have worries about the implementation? What are we hearing from states about this transition?

ADRIEL: Well, there was a survey of mental health agency directors earlier this year by Rand that found that more than half of those surveyed reported they hadn't been involved in the development of a strategic plan for the launch of 988 and only I think 16% reported that they had developed a budget to support the 988 operations. So the question is what happens in the states at the local level. Some states are really great about having local call centers, getting all of the referrals from a particular area, some have overflow numbers that go out of state. But there's all sorts of questions about whether the handoffs are gonna work, whether if there's a flood of calls, you're gonna get someone two states away having to intervene in a crisis like this. And, whether indeed the calls even come through or get dropped. So I think they're wary about over-promising too much, and they're sort of portraying it more as a phase in than an instant flip the switch.

NIALA: Suicides in the U.S. are thankfully trending downward overall, but not for some groups, particularly teen girls and Black and Hispanic men. So how important is this hotline for addressing suicide and mental health issues?

ADRIEL: I mean, it comes obviously at an important time. The nation's frazzled, some of that is attributed to the pandemic, some of it to the increasingly polarized political debate, federal officials think this is contributing to the spikes we're seeing in gun violence, drug overdose deaths, teen suicides. So if you have a simpler way of people airing out their frustration, their state of mind, the thinking is that you get more people who could intervene. And some states like Mississippi have mobile crisis intervention teams that they mobilize. Again, there's great variations between states like Colorado and Washington state have enacted special telecom taxes so they can hire more people. So it's, a little bit of a wait and see which again, makes this kind of a tricky launch.

NIALA: So if you were someone, you know, maybe considering suicide, you can still call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, and that number is 1-800-273-TALK. Or you can text home to 741741 as this 988 number faces in Adriel Bettelheim is Axios senior healthcare editor. Thanks, Adriel.

Axios Today is produced by Nuria Marquez Martinez and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Our sound engineers are Alex Sugiura and Ben O’Brien. Alexandra Botti is our Supervising Producer. Sara Kehaulani Goo is Axios’ Editor In Chief - and special thanks as always to Mike Allen. 

I’m Niala Boodhoo. Stay safe and enjoy your weekend – I’ll see you Monday.

High stakes for Biden’s Mideast trip

President Biden received a warm welcome in Israel this week – kicking off a trip to the Mideast.

Middle East

New June inflation numbers released Wednesday show the Consumer Price Index rose 9.1% since last year - the fastest annual pace since November 1981. To make matters worse, wages are not keeping up.

Plus: the federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency is running out of money.  

Guests: Axios' Neil Irwin, Stef Kight and Erica Pandey

Scoop: ICE is short $345 million, poised to spend more than ever

Here’s what you need to know today: U.S. immigration and customs enforcement is running out of money.  Plus, the millennial friendship crisis.

But first, today’s One Big Thing: wages can’t keep up with inflation.

New June inflation numbers released yesterday show the Consumer Price Index rose 9.1% since last year. That's the fastest annual pace since November of 1981. And to make matters worse, wages aren't keeping up. Axios’ chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin is here to go deeper. Hey Neil.

NIALA: So you wrote about this yesterday, another month, another terrible inflation report. But energy prices were responsible for more than half of this increase. Last month they were up 11% and we have seen those numbers come down a bit in the last few weeks. And meat was also slightly cheaper last month. Are any of those things good signs or am I grasping at straws here.

NEIL: Yeah, look, gas prices, other energy prices are coming down since mid-June. Um, so those, you know, we will see some relief in the July numbers when those eventually come out. At the same time, you know, there's some really bad signs in this report. And, and one of those is that as you say, half of its energy prices. But we're seeing some real inflationary momentum in services, in things that aren't energy and food n core inflation and economists call it. That's a sign that this inflation is becoming embedded in the economy in a way that is really problematic and, and might take a while to go away.

NIALA: Remind us what goes into core inflation, cuz I think people are gonna be hearing that term a lot.

NEIL: Yeah so it's everything other than food and energy. The idea is that food and energy are volatile, have their own kind of dynamics in those markets. So you look through them and, and look at other things. The biggest part of core inflation is shelter. It's rents and the equivalent rent if you were to, to rent your own house, uh, as odd as that might sound. And that's kind of creating a floor underneath core inflation and you know, really keeping inflation from coming down overall by very much. 

NIALA: So let's just kind of pile on with the bad news here, because we're also seeing the sharpest decline in real wages in decades. Is this all because of inflation or are employers actually paying people less?

NEIL: No, people are getting raises, uh, average, hourly earnings are. 5.1% over the last year, that's a good number in normal times, at least cuz normally inflation is, you know, 2%. Uh, now inflation is 9%, 5% uh, wage gains is not much, uh, you're you're losing ground. You know, depending on which measure of inflation, which measure of earnings you want to use, we're seeing the steepest real wage losses in a long time going back to the eighties, uh, that's a terrible sign. That's why people are unhappy with the economy. If you haven't seen a raise this year, or haven't seen much of a raise this year, you are losing ground financially. It's no wonder people aren't very happy about that.

NIALA: But we do know the labor market is really tight, which means that that should put pressure on wages. Do we think that wages will go up more than 5% given how hard it is for employers to keep and hire workers?

NEIL: In truth, the trend the last few months has been the other direction. Uh, wage gains actually peaked back in March at 5.6% year over year. We're now down to 5.1. The good news is we don't have what they call a wage price spiral. We don't have a situation where employers are paying more and more and so that's feeding into inflation and making inflation higher. The bad news is that means people are losing ground and are worse off.

NIALA: So I got a text from Jon in DC this morning with a question about inflation

JON: Hi Niala. How is it that inflation is so high but the dollar is so strong?

NEIL: So John is exactly right that the, in terms of the directions of what you expect to happen, uh, when the dollar rises, which the, the US dollar has been rising quite sharply, uh, you'd expect that to make inflation lower because imports become cheaper. You know, if you're importing French wine or, you know, anything from overseas that should, all things equal ,be cheaper because of the strong dollar. That said, the US economy is less reliant on imports than, than a lot of economies. This is a big country, huge GDP, geographically diverse. We grow our own food. We, you know, make our own energy. So a move in the dollar does not affect the overall US inflationary picture as much as it would in a smaller country. And that's why we're seeing, even with this strong dollar continued quite strong inflation.

NIALA: If you have questions about inflation, you can text them to me. Maybe I will get Neil to answer them. Uh, it's (202) 918-4893. Neil Irwin, you can also find the Axios macro newsletter. He's Axios, chief economic correspondent. Thanks Neil. 

NIALA: In a moment - why Immigration and Customs Enforcement is on track to spend more money than ever before. 

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today! I’m Niala Boodhoo. 

The US Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency is on track to run out of money by October without additional funding. Axios' Stef Kight has learned the Department of Homeland Security is planning on pulling millions of dollars from other federal programs. 

STEF KIGHT: ICE is looking at a roughly $345 million shortfall for this fiscal year. And they're using a mechanism called reprogramming, which allows them to reshuffle funds from within the agency, within ICE, and also to take money from other agencies that are still within the Department of Homeland Security. So for example, about a hundred million dollars is expected to come from the Coast Guard to help ICE ensure they can continue with all of their programs and work without running out of money by the end of this fiscal year. There's a couple of different reasons why ICE is facing the shortfall, including new Biden policies, court decisions and of course, the fact that we've seen higher than usual numbers at the US-Mexico border for now a long time. ICE is of course, one of the most controversial government agencies and progressives have really criticized the agency because of its role in arresting and detaining undocumented immigrants. So it's notable that despite all of that, once you look at these additional funds that they're about to get, ICE will have spent more money than ever this fiscal year.

Stef Kight covers immigration and politics for Axios. 

NIALA: We know friends help us get through the tough times and sweeten the good times. To all of my closest friends who listen to Axios Today every morning, I’m talking about you! But in the U.S., data shows we often prioritize family and work over friendships, sometimes to our own detriment. According to a recent YouGov survey 27% of millennials say they don't have any close friends and 22% of millennials say they have no friends at all.

Axios’ Erica Pandey has been reporting on this. Erica, what’s behind these numbers?

ERICA PANDEY: Thanks Niala. Yeah I was really surprised digging into this data that Americans are having something of a friendship crisis. This matters because research shows friendships are a critical part of our mental health and living overall healthier, happier lives.

JEFF HALL: Friendship matters for longevity. Friendship matters for happiness. Friendship matters for life satisfaction. Friendship matters for everything that's important in our lives.

ERICA: That's Jeff Hall, a professor of communication studies at the University of Kansas. I reached out for his help digging into this.

JEFF: We work and live in a world where friendship is very, very low down in our list of priorities. So I don't think people think about the idea that they should be actually prioritizing their friendships as something that's worth doing.

ERICA: And Jeff says, it's not just about trying to build as many close friendships as possible, but about making different kinds of friendships: from your close friend of 20 years, to someone you often run into at work, for example.

JEFF: A wider variety of people, they can tell you different information and different perspectives. They can challenge  your beliefs in ways that help us grow and learn.

ERICA: So how much time should we actually be putting into our friendships? As it turns out, it can literally be broken out by the numbers.

JEFF: So the first layer is to become from an acquaintance to a casual friend, and that takes between 40 and 60 hours. And then somewhere between a range of 80 to a hundred hours. And then really closer, best friends emerge closer to 200 plus hours.

ERICA: But this doesn't have to be 200 hours of sitting face to face and engaging in deep conversations. So many kinds of interactions count. For example, some of my closest friends are friends I made at work. And the first 100 hours that we clocked in together were just sitting across from each other in a communal office and chit chatting here and there. All of that shared time counts and helps you become closer as friends. And those friendships have been so important for me as I've transitioned to working hybrid or even mostly remote during the pandemic. The fact that we had that time together, that we built those friendships, just made all the difference.

NIALA: Erica Pandey writes the daily Axios Finish Line newsletter.

That’s it for us today! You can reach our team at podcasts at axios dot com or reach out to me on twitter. You can also text me at (202) 918-4893.

Wages can’t keep up with inflation

Inflation is up to 9.1% since last year causing real wages to decline.

Cases of monkeypox, the disease caused by a virus similar to smallpox, are rising in the U.S. There are now more than 750 documented cases according to the CDC, although the actual number is likely much higher. It’s not a pandemic, but what lessons have we learned from covid that can help us contain monkeypox?

Plus: the January 6th committee looks at Trump’s power to incite violence. 

And: snapshots of space 13 billion years ago.

Guests: Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, professor of Epidemiology and the director of the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health; Axios' Andrew Solender and Miriam Kramer.

COVID missteps hang over monkeypox response

Jan. 6 committee: Trump galvanized extremist groups to flood Capitol

First James Webb Space Telescope photos show the universe in a new light 

Here’s what we’re covering today: The January 6th committee hears from insurrectionists. Plus, snapshots of space from 13 billion years ago.

But first: how lessons from the COVID response could help us contain monkeypox. That’s today’s one big thing.

NIALA: Cases of monkeypox, the disease caused by a virus similar to smallpox, are rising in the U.S. There are now more than 750 documented cases according to the CDC, although the actual number is likely much higher. It’s not a pandemic, but what lessons have we learned from covid that can help us contain monkeypox? Here to explain is Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, Professor of Epidemiology and the director of the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health. Hi Dr. Nuzzo! 

NIALA: Dr. Nuzzo, where are we right now in the trajectory of this disease? Is it even fair to compare where we are with monkeypox to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic? 

JENNIFER: It's a little bit hard to tell because we're just now turning on our surveillance to try to find this virus. And so, much of what we're seeing in, in terms of the rapid growth in cases, is in part because we're finally allowing people to get tested for it. That's actually a similarity to the early days of the COVID pandemic that constrained testing. Once you finally eliminate bottlenecks and start looking for the virus, you find a lot more of it than you saw before. But in terms of how this virus spreads versus the SARS CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-10 disease, they spread much differently and we would expect to see the number of cases and the case growth be quite different.

NIALA: Can you just give us a quick, what people do need to know about monkeypox in terms of who's most at risk and what you should be watching for?

JENNIFER: Yeah. So I think the first thing that people should be aware of is just what the symptoms of monkeypox are. And, there are some flu-like symptoms in terms of fever and, you know, sometimes swollen lymph nodes. But also a likelihood of developing a rash. Right now what we're seeing is the vast majority of cases are occurring in a population of patients, men who have sex with men. Um, that's an important risk factor to know about and if you're in that population and if you've had close physical contact with others, uh, that increases your risk of contracting monkeypox. I think it's really important that we highlight what the known risk factors are, but also recognize that they could change. And there's no biological reason known yet why this virus would stay in the group of men who have sex with men it's, uh, known to be spread by close physical contact. And it's I think a concern that it could potentially show up in other patient groups, if it hasn't already. 

NIALA: When we're talking about testing in vaccines for monkeypox, how important is that and what's available right now?

Containing monkeypox with lessons from the COVID response

Cases of monkeypox are rising in the U.S. What lessons have we learned from COVID that can help us contain monkeypox?

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The GOP’s losing battle for grassroots donors

Inflation is bad…a recession is worse

Historic heat in Europe

High stakes for Biden’s Mideast trip

Wages can’t keep up with inflation

Containing monkeypox with lessons from the COVID response

The race to save Yosemite's giant sequoia trees

The double-edged sword of a strong U.S. dollar

The U.K.'s big test