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China’s largest COVID outbreak in two years continues to spread across the country. In Shanghai, daily cases surpassed 26,000 over the weekend despite weeks of lockdown. Now residents in Shanghai are increasingly struggling to get access to food and medical care. 

Plus, the six states that could be key in the midterms. 

Guests: Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian and Alexi McCammond.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez, Alex Sugiura, Sabeena Singhani, and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

China’s extreme COVID lockdowns cause widespread suffering

Doug Sosnik: Six key states to watch for 2022

Here’s what you need to know today: the six states that could be key in the midterm elections. 

But first, today’s one big thing: China’s extreme covid lockdowns cause suffering in Shanghai.

NIALA: China's largest COVID outbreak in two years continues to spread across the country. In Shanghai daily cases surpassed 26,000 over the weekend, despite weeks of lockdown. And now the 26 million residents there are increasingly struggling to get access to food and medical care. Here to explain the latest is Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, China reporter at Axios. Hi, Bethany. 

NIALA: Bethany, what are you hearing about what it's like for people in Shanghai right now? 

BETHANY: The scenes that are unfolding in Shanghai are very dramatic. In the U.S., you may remember from two years ago, at the beginning of our lockdowns when it was so difficult to get toilet paper. Now imagine that exact scenario, except instead of toilet paper, it's really hard for everyone to get food. That's what's happening in Shanghai. And that's kind of incredible because, you know, Shanghai has 26 million people. It's one of the most modern and prosperous cities in the world. There's people here, you know, lawyers, doctors, executives. And many of them are struggling to find food on grocery shelves, to be able to order food from delivery apps and everyone is trapped in their houses.

NIALA: And so, Shanghai is actually still reporting zero COVID deaths, despite some 130,000 cases. How accurate is that data?

BETHANY: There have been unofficial reports of deaths related to COVID, but those don't seem to be showing up in the official numbers right now. There's also been unofficial reports of deaths related to the lockdowns. So for example, people being unable to get medical care. Or their conditions in nursing homes being so bad that people can't survive.

NIALA: Bethany, what are vaccination rates like across China and Shanghai? 

BETHANY: Vaccination rates in China are quite high, 89%. However, there's some important caveats here. For one, the vaccination rate amongst elderly people in China is much lower, around 51%. In addition, the vaccinations have all been performed with Chinese-made, domestic vaccines. And they have lower efficacy in stopping the spread of COVID and in reducing the severity of illness. 

NIALA: Bethany, why is the vaccination rates so low among older people? It's the opposite of most Western countries.

BETHANY: A disproportionate number of elderly people live in rural areas. And it's harder for them to access vaccines. In addition, China's elderly population has tended to feel more hesitancy in receiving vaccines. They're more concerned about side effects.

NIALA: What are the concerns for people outside of China watching this unfold? 

BETHANY: Well, there's certainly humanitarian concerns. Beyond that, you know, people are watching supply chains very closely, watching for shortages. Including in some cases, for higher-end goods. So for example, Tesla has one of its large factories there. That has been shuttered now for a couple of weeks.

NIALA: How are you thinking about the way China is trying to enforce the zero COVID policy?

BETHANY: Well I guess I would say China's response to COVID has also been affected by politics. First of all, Chinese authorities have not approved the use of the more effective Western-made MRNA vaccines. And that's because I think that leaders in Beijing don't like the optics of being seen to rely on the West for literally saving their own population. Second is that 2022 is a really key year for Xi Jinping. Later this year, he is going to be, most likely, assuming a very unusual third term as president. If China succumbs to a massive national outbreak, if many people die, or if these kinds of really strict lockdowns with immense human suffering continue, that could really damage his political standing.

NIALA: Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian is Axios’ China reporter. Thanks, Bethany.

NIALA: And one U.S. covid headline for your Tuesday: Philadelphia yesterday became the first major American city this spring to announce it is reimposing an indoor mask mandate, as cases rise of the omicron subvariant BA2. As we see a new uptick across the country, we’ll be watching to see if other cities follow suit. 

In a moment we’re back with the six states that control of Congress may hinge on. 

Welcome back to Axios Today - I’m Niala Boodhoo.

There are only six states that matter in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, that’s according to a recent memo shared with Axios’ Alexi McCammond written by Doug Sosnik, a former advisor to Bill Clinton. Those states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. And Alexi’s here now to tell us about these political hotspots. 

Alexi, who’s Doug Sosnik and why does it matter what he thinks?

ALEXI MCCAMOND: As you mentioned, Doug Sosnick is a former longtime advisor, senior advisor to Bill Clinton and during the Clinton administration for six years. Now, he is a renowned political analyst who, every midterm cycle, puts out these midterms memos that really kind of, you know, set the tone for what people are focused on because he's always kind of correctly predicted not necessarily the outcomes of midterm elections, but certainly these kinds of larger factors and dynamics and trends that eventually shaped the contours of the elections in November.

NIALA: So what are the trends here with these states and what's making them so important for the midterms?

ALEXI: So one of the big things that Doug and I talked about when we chatted by phone over the weekend, is that both demographic and economic factors and shifts over the last several years are two big things that are contributing of course, to the way that the electorate is changing in these states, but also to the way that these folks are voting. And the other interesting thing that we talked about, is how within these states, all six of these states, they have really important voting trends from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, as well as really competitive state-level or statewide, rather, elections this cycle that Doug says will help us predict what might happen in 2024.

NIALA: How much are President Biden's approval ratings in these states part of this calculus?

ALEXI: I mean, the reality is that President Biden's approval rating’s underwater in all of the states that matter. That's a big problem because that's not the only factor that matters, of course, but it's usually a proxy for the country's mood. And that would suggest, you know, being in the low forties that people aren't really happy. And so far, Republican voters are indicating in poll after poll that they're feeling more excited about actually voting in November, compared to Democrats who are suggesting they're feeling a little more apathetic.

NIALA: Alexi, we mentioned these six states. Are there local issues in each of these states that Democrats are hoping will garner as much enthusiasm in the way that Republicans are seeing? What are Democrats hoping will bring people out to vote?

ALEXI: Yeah. I mean, that's a great question. We've seen how to your latter point Republicans are using the issue of education as a motivating factor for their base. We see it, you know, across the country in elections. The one thing that you hear lately of course, is inflation and the issue of rising costs. I hear it in every conversation I have and Democrats are hoping that this is an issue, especially with Democratic governors, but all the way down the ticket that they'll be able to talk to folks and how they have a plan, they say, to address it.

NIALA: Alexi McCammond is covering the 2022 midterm elections for Axios – thanks so much Alexi.

NIALA: Before we go – a story we’re following that we’d like your help on: I’ve been so struck by the amount of spam messages I had been getting lately especially via text message. So I wanted to hear what spam you’ve been receiving – and what worries you about these texts: are you concerned about where your data is ending up? Or is it just a nuisance? Send me your spam screenshots and voice messages of what you’re experiencing to the Axios Today text line at 202-918-4893.

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

China’s extreme COVID lockdowns

China’s largest COVID outbreak in two years continues to spread across the country.

China

Axios Today

Podcasts

Our economic headlines have been dominated by inflation. And an update out Tuesday isn’t looking good - we’re expecting to have hit another 40-year high last month. But there is some good news that you might have missed in all of this - we’re also seeing the lowest number of unemployment claims in 54 years. 

Plus, get ready for the summer of “revenge travel.”

Guests: Axios' Neil Irwin and Joann Muller.

Amazing number: Fewest jobless claims in 54 years

NIALA BOODHOO: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! It’s Monday, April 11th. I’m Niala Boodhoo. Today: get ready for the summer of “revenge travel.” But first, the stunning highs and lows of the American economy is today’s One Big Thing.

Our economic headlines have been dominated by inflation, and an update scheduled for  tomorrow isn't looking good. We're expecting to see another 40 year high in inflation for the month of March. But there is some good news you might've missed in all of this. We're also seeing the lowest number of employment claims in 54 years. As Axios’ Neil Irwin writes: a tight job market and high inflation are two sides of the same coin. And he's here to explain what that coin looks like. Good morning, Neil.

NIALA: Neil, two years ago, we had 6.1 million people filing for unemployment benefits in a single week, a record. Where are we now?

NEIL: So, as you say, two years ago, height of the pandemic, insane numbers, everyone losing their jobs. Now we're at the opposite extreme, 166,000 people filed new unemployment claims last week. That's the second lowest of the 2,282 weeks dating back to 1967, when we have this data. So, uh, we're in a weird world where fewer people are filing unemployment claims than virtually they ever have in our modern recorded history. So this is a tight labor market. People who have jobs are able to keep them for now.

NIALA: This is, this is the fewest amount of people we have filing for claims in 54 years. What did the size of the labor market look like 54 years ago?

NEIL: It was half the size. Uh, so it's an even more remarkable thing to observe. Look every week for 54 or 55 years, The Labor Department releases these numbers on how many people filed new jobless claims. And what's striking is how the numbers we've seen last few weeks, last few months are lower than we saw even in other good economies, right? Even then lower than we saw in 2019, 1999, times when the economy was booming, doing well. We're doing better than that in terms of this one measure, of like how many people are actually filing unemployment claims. That's a good sign. That's a sign that employers are not firing people. Those are all great signs for the labor market.

NIALA: I bet there are people who are thinking: But what about the size of the labor market? Is it smaller than before the pandemic? Because less people are looking for work. How does that factor into this? 

NEIL: The labor force is still smaller than it was pr- pandemic. We're still below the February 2020 numbers, but not that far below. I think people are not quite understanding how quickly this labor market has improved and come back from the pandemic lows. And it's true. Everything's not completely healed. You can still find pockets of weakness for certain types of jobs for certain overall numbers. But those numbers have been improving fast in the last few months. If things continue the way they have, we're going to have a full employment, robust job market, by any measure possible within another few months.

NIALA: And how does that help fuel inflation? The relationship between a tight job market and higher inflation? 

NEIL: It's not one for one. But it is true that this tight labor market is a factor in the high inflation we're having. So what you have is employers can't find workers. They have to offer higher wages, better benefits, things to get people on board. And when they have to pay more to get workers, they have to charge higher prices.

NIALA: Do you feel like the news of the job market has really been lost in the economic conversation this year? The news of how good a job market we're in really is? 

NEIL: Look, let me just state this very clearly. This is an extremely good labor market. And I was covering the Great Recession, the recovery back in the early 2010s. And it was terrible. And we went for years and years with this very slow job growth, job creation, very slow decline in the unemployment rate. And what took 10 years last time has happened in two years this time. And that's fantastic and it's better for workers. People who want a job can get a job. They're able to demand higher pay. That said, we are dealing with a bigger inflation problem than we did during the 2010s.

NIALA: So let's break down some of these factors when the Consumer Price Index numbers come out on Tuesday, we're likely going to hear The White House talk about how the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a big factor. Do economists see that as a big factor? 

NEIL: At the headline level. Absolutely yes. Right, so we're getting a number month on month. This can be something like 1%, 1.1% inflation overall. That's driven primarily by the fact that energy prices surged in March, right? Gas prices were up 20% in March because of the war in Ukraine. That's significant. That's also not really driven by underlying economic factors: What's going on in the mechanics of the economy. That said, the current forecast for core inflation, meaning excluding food and energy, these things that are driven by geopolitical things. That's expected to be 0.5%. That's still pretty high, right? Like we still have high trend inflation. And so it's a, it's a delicate thing because yes, there's going to be a high headline number. The White House is gonna blame that on energy prices on Russia. And that's true, but there's still very high underlying inflation right now. When that comes down as a very important question for the future of the economy.

NIALA: Neil, can you help us understand these underlying factors? What else do we need to know about why we're in this situation right now?

NEIL: I mean, it's partly what we just talked about around wages, right? Employers are paying more to their workers. They're passing those costs on their customers. But there's a broader thing. Like demand is high. There's a lot of money floating around right now. Stock prices are high. Spending is high, and that is pulling up prices because there's more demand than there is supply. And that's the fundamental imbalance in this economy right now. How that resolves is the big question, right? So we have this high inflation now. This surging demand. Do we solve that by The Federal Reserve tightening interest rates and we suddenly end up with a slower economy. We'll see. But the reality is it's not just energy prices, not just Russia. There are more things going on.

NIALA: Axios’ chief economic correspondent, Neil Irwin. Thanks, Neil.

NIALA: Speaking of inflation - in a moment, we’re back with Americans ready to shell out the big bucks for travel this summer.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today! I’m Niala Boodhoo. After two years of hunkering down at home, Americans are splurging on so-called “revenge travel” - premium airfare, nicer hotels, and longer vacations. And confession: I did this a few weeks ago when I got tickets for Wimbledon. Joann Muller is Axios’ travel and transportation correspondent and here now with details of this latest trend. Hi Joann.

NIALA: What are experts expecting travel to look like this summer? I have to tell you, I bought the tennis tickets, and now I've been looking at airplane tickets and thinking “bad idea.”

JOANN: [laughs] If you need someone to come with you, I would love to go to Wimbledon with you, but you know, you are feeling the same way everyone else is. We have put off travel too long. We want to see our loved ones. We want to go on those long-delayed vacations. And I am also planning a big trip. I'm going to Newfoundland this year, this summer. That is a trip I would not have made and I'm going to take two weeks to do it, not just one. This is what's happening everywhere. People are splurging on nicer accommodations, longer stays, fancier seats on the airplane. Everybody is ready to spend money. 

NIALA: But this is happening despite rising costs, not just in the U.S. We look at what's happening with gas prices. How is this playing out in the travel industry?

JOANN: Yes, absolutely. Airfares are going up. Airfares since the beginning of January are up 40%, which is astonishing right? But it's really only about 7% higher than what it was before the pandemic. So remember that while, during the pandemic flights were pretty cheap because hardly anyone was flying and they were trying to lure people. But I think people are putting that aside and they're just ready to spend the money.

NIALA: It's April. Is it too late now to be booking summer travel?

JOANN: My sources at various airlines and travel agencies tell me that flight prices are going to peak in May and so you better get on it. O r you know, if you wait until June, things will be coming down again, but you probably won't get a seat until maybe September.

NIALA: Axios transportation correspondent Joann Muller. Thanks, Joann.

NIALA: That’s all we’ve got for you today! If you’re a fan of the show, we’ve love it if you can leave us a starred review on Apple podcasts. And, you can always text me your feedback and story ideas: I’m at (202) 918-4893. I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

The stunning highs and lows of the U.S. economy

Inflation is expected to hit another 40-year high while jobless claims are at their lowest in 54 years

Inflation

A historic moment yesterday in the Senate, where Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson became the newest Supreme Court Justice after a 53-47 vote. She will be the first Black woman appointed to the high court. The confirmation marks President Biden’s first Supreme Court pick. And it may turn out to be his only one. 

Plus, states wage new battles over abortion rights.

Guests: Axios' Jonathan Swan and Oriana González. 

Watch the full Mitch McConnell interview with Jonathan Swan

Gretchen Whitmer files lawsuit to protect abortion rights in Michigan

Here’s what you need to know today: The U.S. gets its first Black female supreme court justice. Plus, states wage new battles over abortion rights.

But first, today’s One Big Thing: Jonathan Swan presses Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on his moral red lines.

KAMALA HARRIS: On this vote, the yeas are 53. The nays are 47 and this nomination is confirmed. [applause]

NIALA: A historic moment yesterday in the Senate where Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson became the newest Supreme Court justice after a 53 to 47 vote. She will be the first Black woman appointed to the high court. The confirmation marks President Biden's first Supreme court pick. And it may turn out to be his only one. That was part of the topic of conversation Axios’ Jonathan Swan had yesterday morning with Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell repeatedly declined to answer questions about whether he'll hold any hearings if there's another Supreme Court opening after the midterm election. 

MITCH MCCONNELL: Uh, I'll be interested in working with the president when he's willing to be a moderate, but with regard to personnel and the other things that we're involved in, I'm not going to signal how we're going to approach it.

NIALA: Jonathan, first of all, is this what the GOP strategy could look like if they were in the majority?

JONATHAN SWAN: Yes. Mitch McConnell is signaling in this interview through his non-response that he is at least contemplating refusing to hold hearings on any Joe Biden nominee for the Supreme Court. And you’ll remember that he did that in 2016 to Barack Obama for Merrick Garland. So what we could be seeing is McConnell's leaving open the door to create a new standard. If you just imagine next year, just-just visualize this: Republicans win the Senate. God forbid, but some health crisis takes a justice out of the court. Joe Biden, names somebody he wants to put on the court. And McConnell says, no, I'm coming up with some new standard for why we're not going to do this. Well, then you've got an eight person court and you could have that court indefinitely, as long as the opposition party controls the Senate. It's a really significant development. If this- if it goes down this path.

NIALA: I want to just stay with the Supreme Court for a moment, because you also asked him about Ginni Thomas, wife of Justice Clarence Thomas. And whether Justice Thomas should recuse himself from cases involving President Trump's efforts to overturn the election results. Can you just explain what McConnell's thinking was there, how he answered that for you?

JONATHAN: Yeah, he just reflexively defended Clarence Thomas. McConnell is correct when he says that it's up to Supreme Court justices to decide whether they have conflicts of interests. It's true. They're answerable to nobody. So basically, even though Justice Thomas ruled on cases relating to the what Trump White House’s efforts to overturn the election, while his wife was simultaneously strategizing with the White House staff on all overturning the election, he said he trusts Clarence Thomas to make those decisions.

NIALA: I want to ask you about one other contradiction you tried to get him to address. Which is condemning President Trump's role in the January 6th insurrection, which he did immediately after January 6th, but then later also supporting President Trump. How did he explain that contradiction to you?

JONATHAN: He basically didn't, he just refused to answer the question and I set this up by saying, you know, what are your moral red lines? Is there anything, is there any threshold-anything a Republican candidate could say or do that would result in losing his support. And basically he supports the party's nominee. No matter what. He's a Republican party man and that trumps all, apparently.

NIALA: At the end of the day, what did you learn from Mitch McConnell in this interview?

JONATHAN: McConnell is an utterly ruthless political animal. He is all about winning and doing what's required to win. And there's no difference this year. He wants to be majority leader again. I think he's got history on his mind, his legacy. He's 80 years old. I've done a lot of interviews with difficult subjects, including multiple world leaders. Mitch McConnell is the toughest interview, certainly that I've ever done. And I think actually probably in American politics.

NIALA: Axios national political correspondent, Jonathan Swan. Thanks, Jonathan.

NIALA: In a moment, a new lawsuit in Michigan by its governor to protect abortion rights.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I’m Niala Boodhoo. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is moving to solidify abortion rights in her state. She just filed a lawsuit to protect abortion rights under the Michigan constitution ahead of a possible overturn of Roe vs. Wade by the Supreme Court. And other states across the country are also waging new battles over abortion... Axios’ Oriana Gonzalez has been reporting on all of these. Hi Oriana. 

NIALA: Can we start with Michigan? And can you explain why a lawsuit on behalf of the Governor would protect abortion rights in Michigan?

ORIANA: So with her lawsuit, Governor Whitmer is trying to do two things. The first one is to ask the Michigan Supreme court to explicitly say that abortion rights are protected under the state constitution. And then the second one is actually looking at a pre-Roe abortion ban that exists in the state. By this I mean, there was a law that was enacted in Michigan in 1931 that explicitly says that abortion is illegal and the law still exists. It's still in the books, but it's currently dormant because of Roe V. Wade. And what Whitmer specifically asking is for the Michigan Supreme Court to say this law is unconstitutional it completely violates different clauses of the constitution and therefore it will never be brought back.

NIALA: How many states have similar laws like this?

ORIANA: There are at least eight states that we know of that have pre-Roe laws. All of them in general just say abortion in this state is illegal and all of them are currently inactive because Roe V. Wade is still in place.

NIALA: Where else are we seeing new attempts to protect abortion rights at the state level? 

ORIANA: Most recently, actually, earlier this week, Colorado became the 16th state to codify the right to an abortion. That means that even if the Supreme Court gets rid of its precedents, protecting abortion rights, abortion access would be guaranteed under Colorado law. This would be a state constitution right. Vermont actually became the first state to attempt to do this. They advanced a constitutional amendment doing the same thing. 

NIALA: But Oriana, how many more states are going in the opposite direction and imposing more abortion restrictions. 

ORIANA: When it comes to red states, we are seeing a variety of attempts to try to restrict abortion. So most recently, Idaho actually became the first state to officially enact a law that is based on Texas’ six-week ban, which as you remember, it passed last year. It basically effectively bans all abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. And what has happened is that states like Idaho have grabbed that law as a blueprint in order to create loss that will restrict abortion. Oklahoma earlier this week passed a law that says that abortion is illegal. It is not modeled after the Texas law. And it was completely unexpected. But it's the first one that has passed recently that explicitly says that abortion is a felony. And at the same time, actually, as soon as today, Oklahoma could pass another law that is also a near total abortion ban except under specific conditions, such as if there's medical emergency or if there's a rape or incest. And what's happening particularly with the Supreme Court, and obviously considering that it has a 6-3 conservative majority, they seem likely to roll back abortion rights. We still don't know whether that means overturning Roe V. Wade, or maybe weakening it. And a decision on this particular case that they're looking at is expected for some point this summer. It could be as soon as June.

NIALA: Axios’ Oriana Gonzalez, thank you Oriana.

Axios Today is produced by Nuria Marquez Martinez, Sabeena Singhani, and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Our sound engineer is Alex Sugiura. Alexandra Botti is our Senior Producer. Sara Kehaulani Goo is our Editor In Chief. And special thanks as always to Axios co-founder Mike Allen.   

I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here on Monday.

Senator Mitch McConnell on his moral red lines

Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson became the newest Supreme Court Justice after a 53-47 vote.

Mitch McConnell

Yesterday, President Biden praised a victory by Amazon workers in New York in their bid to unionize. About 55% of the workers at the Staten Island warehouse voted to form the first U.S. union at Amazon last week. Their victory is expected to spur union growth around the country.

Plus, fresh sanctions against Russia after a civilian massacre. 

And, the role of tech in humanitarian work in Ukraine.

Guests: Axios' Emily Peck, Dave Lawler, and Ina Fried. 

Amazon workers' union victory is turbocharging a new labor movement

José Andrés: Apple Maps was sending me into Russian-controlled territory

Here’s what you need to know today: fresh sanctions against Russia after a civilian massacre in Ukraine. Plus, the role of tech in humanitarian work at the warfront.

But first, today’s One Big Thing: Amazon workers’ union victory turbocharges a new labor movement.

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: By the way, Amazon here we come. Watch. 

NIALA: That's President Biden yesterday, praising a victory by Amazon workers in New York in their bid to unionize. About 55% of the workers at the Staten Island warehouse voted to form the first U.S. union at Amazon last week. And as Axios’ Markets correspondent Emily Peck says, this may wind up spurring union growth around the country. She's here with more. Hey, Emily.

NIALA: Let's start with what led up to this moment.

EMILY: Just a remarkable number of factors all coming together led us to this place, this remarkable David and Goliath victory. So first, the pandemic of course. Chris Smalls, who is now the president of the newly minted Amazon Labor Union, first started protesting conditions at the warehouse and Staten Island in 2020. A lot of Amazon workers were upset at the time about the way the company was handling COVID safety measures, like so many workers around the country. It was a very pivotal time. The second thing is that man at the top of this podcast, President Biden, this win probably doesn't happen without Biden in The White House. And one of the first things he did on inauguration day was to fire the management-friendly general counsel of the National Labor Relations Board and replace him with this woman, Jennifer Abruzzo who's really taken to enforcing the labor laws with a real zeal.

NIALA: Does the way that this union organized, this Amazon union, is this different than what we think of as the traditional labor union? Like I think people always think of auto workers.

EMILY: Yeah, it's really different. So I mentioned that guy, Chris Smalls, he's just a guy. [chuckles]. Just a guy in a warehouse doing his job. There's another unionization effort that's been going on of Amazon workers in Alabama. And in that case, they have like an established labor union coming in and trying to organize them, like outside in kind of a thing. But what happened in Staten Island was grassroots. It was inside.

NIALA: And what have traditional labor unions said about it?

EMILY: They're all very positive. It's a pivotal time now because Chris Smalls and the Amazon labor union won this victory. But now more work has to take place and that they have to actually negotiate a contract with Amazon, with its limitless budget, you know? So the established unions are gonna to help them a lot. I think they're being supportive. It's not an antagonistic kind of relationship. It's more like, wow, this is inspiring to the established unions as much as it's inspiring to workers.

NIALA: How much does this change momentum for other people who are trying to do this at other companies?

EMILY: The one company everyone is talking about, in parallel with Amazon, is Starbucks. Which is seeing unionization efforts in stores around the country. I think it's like nearly 200 stores. A store in Buffalo, a Starbucks, won a union election at the end of the year. And the company just brought its CEO back, Howard Schultz. There was some video of him that was leaked this week, where he says the company is essentially being assaulted by unionization efforts. So they're anxious. And I think what happened with Amazon only kind of makes them more anxious.

NIALA: Emily Peck is one of the authors of the Axios’ Markets newsletter. Thanks, Emily.

In a moment, the latest sanctions against Russia by the West.

Welcome back to Axios Today! I’m Niala Boodhoo.

The massacre of civilians in Bucha, Ukraine has spurred new sanctions against Russia. The US, the EU and G7 allies are banning new investment in the country, and slapping another round of sanctions on Russia’s largest bank - plus Russian elites including Vladir Putin’s adult daughters.

I asked Axios World Editor Dave Lawler: what effect does the West expect this will have?

DAVE LAWLER: So the White House, when they laid out these sanctions, said that they think that the cumulative effect of the sanctions so far will cause a massive hit to the Russian economy this year. They said they expect 15 years of economic growth in Russia to be wiped out. And they used the phrase “Soviet-level living standards.” There are things that can be noticed now, if you're in Russia. You can't buy certain Western brands, stores like Ikea or McDonald's are closed. The government has had to go to great lengths to stabilize their currency - the ruble. Inflation is high. Things are getting more expensive. There are these near term effects, but when we're talking about, this sort of plunge toward “Soviet-level living standards,” this will play out over the course of months and years. 

And one of the things that the U.S. is trying to emphasize is that it doesn't have to go in that direction. That these are reversible if Russia goes in a different course, Russia pulls out of Ukraine. Sanctions are a lot easier to put on than pull off, but there is this idea that we don't have to keep escalating on the sanction side if Russia doesn't keep escalating on the war side.

European countries are continuing to send billions of euros to Moscow to buy Russian gas. And so the question is whether European countries reach the point where they decide that they're willing to take what could actually be a recession in their countries, if they have to somehow source gas from elsewhere, are they willing to go to that length? And so far the answer has been no, but again, we're seeing more and more steps taken with every new allegation or atrocity on the Russian side.

NIALA: Dave Lawler is Axios’ world editor and host of this season’s How It Happened: Putin's Invasion. You can find that wherever you get your podcasts.

Technology is generally designed for use under optimal conditions, but as the war in Ukraine has reminded us, conflict presents new challenges – Axios’ chief technology correspondent Ina Fried spoke to chef Jose Andres, the chef behind world central kitchen. The nonprofit is providing 300,000 hot meals a day for people affected by the war in Ukraine. And he has some gripes about Apple…including saying that Apple maps has been leading him and his team into Russian areas! Is that right Ina?

INA FRIED: Not Russia itself, but Russian controlled areas of Ukraine. So what he'd really like to see from Apple, and this may not be possible, is the maps and routes that only go through territory held by Ukrainians. I totally get, if I'm in his shoes, I definitely don't want to be directed to enemy territory. But it's not like Apple can send one of its mapping cars driving down the streets of Ukraine and asking people which army they are for. So I totally understand his complaints, but I'm not sure that there are things that are easily addressable.

NIALA: He also had a suggestion for WhatsApp that he would love to see better translation technology incorporated. Is that possible?

INA: It is possible, but it comes with a trade-off that he may or may not be, uh, placing as much weight on, which is, if you want to translate, say just between English and Spanish you can actually download that as part of an app and all the work could be done on your device. But if you want to go from any language to any language, Ukrainian probably wouldn't be the first language that would be downloaded, then you'd have to go to a server. And WhatsApp values itself, they pride themselves on the fact that the communications are encrypted and that WhatsApp doesn't have access to your conversation. But if that got sent to a server for translation, that probably wouldn't be the case. 

NIALA: And what are the technology companies telling you about how they're trying to handle this?

INA: You know, I think I'm hearing that, they want to be of as much service to people in Ukrainian as possible. At the same time a lot of them are trying to figure out how to shut off Russian users to comply with sanctions. Slack, for example, had to turn off all of its customers in Russia from its paid service because Salesforce, its parent company, has decided to stop doing business in Russia.

NIALA: How has this made you think about how technology is being used in humanitarian work right now in this war zone?

INA: Well, I think when you think about it, you know, war isn't the conditions, as you mentioned, that tech has developed for. But of course, in a war time, we're even more dependent on what we have at our disposal. So it is a reminder to these services that whether they're functional or not, or partly functional during war time, people are counting on them and the stakes are even higher. So I do think there are opportunities for tech to do as much as it can in these conditions, but I think it's, it's always not going to be the case that that's what they're developed for.

NIALA: Axios’ chief technology correspondent, Ina Fried. Thanks Ina.

NIALA: Just to note for listeners, we did reach out to Apple for comment, but didn't immediately hear back.

That’s all we’ve got for you today! Text me your feedback and story ideas: I’m at (202) 918-4893.

Amazon workers’ union win sparks a new labor movement

Workers at the Staten Island warehouse voted to form the first U.S. union at Amazon.

Amazon

UN climate scientists gave governments a “final warning” in a new report on Monday, saying that to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, emissions must peak by 2025. At the Axios What's Next Summit in D.C. yesterday, Niala asks Ali Zaidi, White House deputy national climate advisor, what individuals can actually do.

Plus, how young “techno-optimists” are driving the future.

Guests: Deputy National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi and Axios' Jennifer Kingson.

Axios-Momentive poll: Young people are the biggest "techno-optimists

Today, we’re covering how young “techno-optimists” are driving the future.

And, our one big thing: the role of civic engagement in combating climate change, with White House Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi.

UN climate scientists gave governments a “final warning” in a new report out on Monday – saying that to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, emissions have to peak by 2025… that’s just 3 years away! And in what Axios climate reporter Andrew Freedman calls a cold slap of water to the face – emissions also have to decline by almost half by 2030. 

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is going forward with the largest strategic release of oil in our history - 1 million barrels of oil a day for the next six months.

In the face of all this, many of you have been emailing the podcast asking the same question: what can individuals actually do, to help combat climate change? I put that question to Ali Zaidi, White House deputy national climate advisor, and former New York deputy secretary for energy and environment. He joined me in DC at the Axios What’s Next summit yesterday.

ZAIDI: I think probably what folks are looking for is an answer as simple as, you know, don't leave the water running, uh, or recycle more or switch to a certain product or another. And those are really important personal actions. But what's really, really important I think at this moment is that we press the entire system to meet the moment and that's going to require a real engagement with the broader society.

NIALA: So you're talking about civic engagement.

ZAIDI: Civic engagement is going to be the critical ingredient in tackling the climate crisis.

NIALA: And so when people are listening to this thinking in their small town, you grew up in a small town in Pennsylvania, how do you see that happening at a local level?

ZAIDI: I think at a local level, it's folks being very clear about their priorities. When a school is thinking about making its, uh, changes to how it buys electric, it's showing up to that school board meeting and making sure that this is on the radar of the leaders. Um, so it's sure it's making a difference in your home, but school board, uh, city, town council. And then obviously in the federal government holding federal leaders to account to follow through on these bold climate commitments.

NIALA: So you said something to me on stage. People don't want to lecture about science. Do you think that's been a mistake that we, that we feel like that people have been heavy handed? Or do you think it's just a question of trying to meet people where they're at?

ZAIDI: I think it's a question about meeting people where they are. Sure, there are folks in America who subscribe to Scientific American, they just love to get deep on this stuff.

But for a lot of folks they're going around just trying to live their life. And they want to know, you know, where they're going to get their next paycheck. They want to know how they're going to get from point A to point B and how much that's going to cost them. And I think one of the things we're seeing resonate a great deal with folks around the country, is just boiling it down to the economic opportunity that exists in tackling climate. So, it's about attracting business investment into communities. It's about helping companies see around the corner and recognize that by investing in cleaner products, they're not just becoming more competitive globally. They're making sure that workforce has decades more of a demand because they're positioning for where the puck is headed.

So I think it's maybe if it's not a conversation about the science, it can be a conversation about the economic imperative that we're seeing all, all around the country.

NIALA: I suspect a you're the guy who likes Scientific American.

ZAIDI:  Yes. Yes. I do like Scientific American.

NIALA: So how have you modified or changed the way you have thought or approached this issue? You know, this has been your life's work dealing with this, but as you've seen our politics become more divided in this issue become more contentious, how have you thought about reframing it?

ZAIDI: For me, it's been really easy as excited as I get to geek out on, you know, the cost curves on electrolyzer technology, or to understand new ways with which we're approaching fusion technology to basically build a little star that's going to power our earth. As exciting as all of that is, when I think about climate, I think about that sense of opportunity, not just to get a paycheck, but to be part of the project taking on one of the greatest crises of our time. So that's why it's easy, is because that's my reason for being in public service to begin with.

NIALA: Ali, thank you so much for being with us. I appreciate it. 

NIALA: You can watch my conversation with Ali for the What’s Next summit —where we went deeper into some of that scientific and technological conversation—by visiting the link in our show notes.

We’ll be back in a moment with new data on young people and tech.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today! I’m Niala Boodhoo. Young people under 25 are excited and optimistic about the future of new technology. Everything from crypto to smart home technology. That's according to an exclusive Axios momentum poll out this week. Jennifer Kingston is the chief correspondent for the What's Next newsletter, where she's also an editor. She's here with me at the What's Next summit in D.C with this glimpse into how young Americans are feeling. Hi, Jennifer.

NIALA: You asked about a lot of new technology in this poll, how would you describe this generation that have been dubbed the techno-optimists?

JENNIFER: We saw a big age divide in the poll that we did with Momentive. It tended to be that the younger you are, the more excited you tend to be about everything from drones delivering food and drugs to your house, to buying cryptocurrency. Fully a quarter of the young people whom we polled have invested in cryptocurrency, where the older people are much more skittish about it. Young people all want to buy electric vehicles if they could afford them. And, they're very excited about the prospect of living in a quote unquote “smart city.”

NIALA: That number about electric vehicles, that seven out of 10 young Americans would drive an electric car if they could afford it, which is a big if, but does that enthusiasm actually change the market for this technology? 

JENNIFER: It suggests that the conversion to electric vehicles will probably take place more quickly rather than less, because the young people are going to be the consumers of tomorrow. There's an extremely big push by automakers to get as many EVs on the street as possible and to make them more affordable for the younger cohort. So it really does all point towards a future where the conversion to electric cars is going to continue to happen more quickly.

NIALA: This poll also covered things that people are worried about, or not ready to jump on, like the metaverse. What did we learn about those worries?

JENNIFER: People are saying “meh” about the metaverse. Nobody quite knows what it means, despite the fact that Facebook has rebranded itself as Meta to emphasize the centrality of this virtual world and our lives going forward. So far, it's not ready for prime time and everybody's still scratching their heads about what it is and how to define it. So it remains to be seen if that will actually turn out to be something important in our futures or not.

NIALA: Jennifer, the idea that the youngest among us are the most excited about technology is probably generally how it works, right? Like younger generations adapt technology that become part of the mainstream. Why is the techno-optimism so significant at this moment in 2022?

JENNIFER: You're right. But because of the pace of change that's been brought about by the pandemic, it stands to reason that all these different types of technology are going to advance even further because they have the young people championing them. One thing that was striking in our poll was that 82% of the people under 24 were huge supporters of so-called micro-mobility devices: e-scooters, e-skateboards, e-bikes. Those shared devices that are out in the streets. Older people really don't want these things around. They're worried about safety issues and so forth. Yet they're going to persist because this is something that young people have grown accustomed to and want in their lives going forward.

NIALA: Axios’ chief correspondent, Jennifer Kingson, editor of the What's Next newsletter. Thanks, Jennifer.

That’s all we’ve got for you today! I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

How civic engagement can combat climate change

UN climate scientists gave governments a “final warning” in a new report on Monday.

Climate change

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky spoke recently to CBS' Margaret Brennan, describing apparent Russian war crimes committed against the people of Ukraine. Brennan says this brutal war is challenging what the West stands for today.

Plus, how to get started with crypto investing.

And, jury selection in the death penalty trial for the Parkland shooter.

Guests: Margaret Brennan, host of CBS' Face the Nation and Axios' Brady Dale.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Nuria Marquez Martinez, Sabeena Singhani, Lydia McMullen-Laird, and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Zelensky in Bucha: Ukraine wants "to show the world what happened here"

"Face the Nation" interview with President Zelensky

Today: how to get started with crypto investing. And, jury selection in the death penalty trial for the Parkland shooter.

First, today’s one big thing: how war in the Ukraine is challenging what the West stands for.

What does the West stand for?

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to host Margaret Brennan on CBS’ Face the Nation.

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China’s extreme COVID lockdowns

The stunning highs and lows of the U.S. economy

Senator Mitch McConnell on his moral red lines

Amazon workers’ union win sparks a new labor movement

How civic engagement can combat climate change

What does the West stand for?

Apparent war crimes reported in Ukraine

Food banks are feeling the squeeze

The 9-5 workday is fading